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Early Deadline possibilities

Créé par: Mystaes
Équipe: 2022-23 Red Wings de Detroit
Date de création initiale: 24 nov. 2022
Publié: 24 nov. 2022
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
For now let’s assume only pending UFAs go and we don’t pull the trigger on kuba/Perron, the former of which if he keeps this pace could net a huge return due to cap and term.

This exercise shows we have plenty of depth forward and defense ufas to ship out for mid-late picks at deadline (most of our injured players will be back before TDL).

Think the big fish will be bert, so long as he returns to his career form once he’s caught up from his month off
Transactions
1.
DET
  1. Coronato, Matthew [Liste de réserve]
CGY
  1. Bertuzzi, Tyler (2 375 000 $ retained)
Détails additionnels:
https://www.capfriendly.com/trade-machine/18444

Seemed to poll well. Had a gsva equivalent of 11th oa going into the offseason here. Coronato is pretty close and the flames could use a good top6 LW now while the window is open before some of their older players drop off.
2.
DET
  1. Choix de 6e ronde en 2023 (LAK)
Détails additionnels:
Welcome to your average depth defenseman deadline trade.
3.
DET
  1. Choix de 7e ronde en 2023 (EDM)
Détails additionnels:
Same thing, team not important. Late picks for extra bodies.
4.
DET
  1. Choix de 4e ronde en 2024 (COL)
COL
  1. Erne, Adam
Détails additionnels:
Or sunny or pius: moving another depth body at deadline much like vladdy last year. Potential retention.
Rachats de contrats
Transactions impliquant une retenue de salaire
Repêchage1e ronde2e ronde3e ronde4e ronde5e ronde6e ronde7e ronde
2023
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2024
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2025
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TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
2282 500 000 $69 326 389 $0 $3 857 500 $13 173 611 $
Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
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2 500 000 $2 500 000 $
AG, AD
UFA - 2
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6 100 000 $6 100 000 $
C
NTC
UFA - 1
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4 750 000 $4 750 000 $
AD, AG
M-NTC
UFA - 2
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925 000 $925 000 $
AD, AG
RFA - 2
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5 625 000 $5 625 000 $
C, AG, AD
M-NTC
UFA - 5
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925 000 $925 000 $ (Bonis de performance2 500 000 $$2M)
AD, AG
RFA - 2
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4 000 000 $4 000 000 $
AG
UFA - 3
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1 460 000 $1 460 000 $
AG, C
UFA - 2
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1 825 000 $1 825 000 $
AD, AG
RFA - 3
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2 750 000 $2 750 000 $
AD, C
UFA - 1
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894 167 $894 167 $ (Bonis de performance425 000 $$425K)
C
RFA - 1
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878 333 $878 333 $ (Bonis de performance82 500 $$82K)
AG, C
RFA - 3
Logo de Red Wings de Detroit
3 250 000 $3 250 000 $
C, AG
UFA - 1
Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
Logo de Red Wings de Detroit
4 750 000 $4 750 000 $
DG/DD
M-NTC
UFA - 4
Logo de Red Wings de Detroit
863 333 $863 333 $ (Bonis de performance850 000 $$850K)
DD
RFA - 2
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4 750 000 $4 750 000 $
G
M-NTC
UFA - 3
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2 250 000 $2 250 000 $
DG
UFA - 1
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4 400 000 $4 400 000 $
DD
RFA - 2
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3 000 000 $3 000 000 $
G
UFA - 1
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1 050 000 $1 050 000 $
DG
UFA - 1
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850 000 $850 000 $
DD
RFA - 1
Logo de Red Wings de Detroit
750 000 $750 000 $
G
UFA - 1
Laissés de côtéListe des blessés (IR)Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
Logo de Red Wings de Detroit
2 625 000 $2 625 000 $
AG
UFA - 2
Logo de Red Wings de Detroit
850 000 $850 000 $
DD
UFA - 1
Logo de Red Wings de Detroit
750 000 $750 000 $
AD
UFA - 1

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24 nov. 2022 à 12 h 33
#1
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Stevie won't trade his son Adam Erne. I'd trade Suter and Zadina. I hate thinking about trading Bert but it seems inevitable at this point.
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24 nov. 2022 à 12 h 45
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Bert is not returning Coronato lol
24 nov. 2022 à 12 h 51
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Right now it's premature on the selloff, With us currently 3rd in the Atlantic.

No way for Bertuzzi at 50% retained for Coronato not enough coming back from the Flame at least add a 1st round pick on the deal. Yzerman isn't dealing Bert or Larkin without 1st round picks coming back.
24 nov. 2022 à 13 h 6
#4
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Quoting: HockeyIsMyPassion61
Right now it's premature on the selloff, With us currently 3rd in the Atlantic.

No way for Bertuzzi at 50% retained for Coronato not enough coming back from the Flame at least add a 1st round pick on the deal. Yzerman isn't dealing Bert or Larkin without 1st round picks coming back.


You are overvaluing bert or undervaluing Coronato, who was taken 13th oa and has a decent D+1 under his belt. And even if we are still in the mix playoff time we may still trade him if a contract doesn’t look likely.

Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
Bert is not returning Coronato lol


You are overvaluing the prospect/undervaluing the player, bert without retention was worth the 2022 11th oa pick by gsva going into this season. If Coronato becomes bertuzzi as his career path it would be a successful career.

When you get people so vehemently disagreeing in both directions it’s a good sign you got the value pretty close. See the linked poll.
24 nov. 2022 à 13 h 8
#5
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Quoting: MoreHitzSeider
Stevie won't trade his son Adam Erne. I'd trade Suter and Zadina. I hate thinking about trading Bert but it seems inevitable at this point.


I know we meme but Steve is pretty cutthroat and I think he’ll trade a pending ufa even if he’s an ex lightning, see vladdy.

I think Bert’s time is done. I don’t see the likelihood of extension as very high given player/team needs. He’s going to be great for the next 3-4 years.... but we won’t be.
24 nov. 2022 à 13 h 10
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Quoting: Mystaes
I know we meme but Steve is pretty cutthroat and I think he’ll trade a pending ufa even if he’s an ex lightning, see vladdy.

I think Bert’s time is done. I don’t see the likelihood of extension as very high given player/team needs. He’s going to be great for the next 3-4 years.... but we won’t be.


Stevie isn't cut throat with Adam Erne. He's literally the ONLY reason why he's still playing in the NHL.

Bert wants too much money and he misses too many games. That's why a contract hasn't been signed.
24 nov. 2022 à 13 h 13
#7
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Quoting: Mystaes
You are overvaluing bert or undervaluing Coronato, who was taken 13th oa and has a decent D+1 under his belt. And even if we are still in the mix playoff time we may still trade him if a contract doesn’t look likely.



You are overvaluing the prospect/undervaluing the player, bert without retention was worth the 2022 11th oa pick by gsva going into this season. If Coronato becomes bertuzzi as his career path it would be a successful career.

When you get people so vehemently disagreeing in both directions it’s a good sign you got the value pretty close. See the linked poll.


Don't listen to that guy. He thinks all Flames players and prospects are McDavid and Makar. Guy knows nothing.
24 nov. 2022 à 13 h 14
#8
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Quoting: MoreHitzSeider
Stevie isn't cut throat with Adam Erne. He's literally the ONLY reason why he's still playing in the NHL.

Bert wants too much money and he misses too many games. That's why a contract hasn't been signed.


I’d argue the more likely sticking point with bertuzzi is term, not just AAV. If it was for like 4 years it would be w/e. We aren’t ready to throw a ton of 8 year deals out there yet (but we damn well better for Larks)
24 nov. 2022 à 13 h 15
#9
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Quoting: Mystaes
I’d argue the more likely sticking point with bertuzzi is term, not just AAV. If it was for like 4 years it would be w/e. We aren’t ready to throw a ton of 8 year deals out there yet (but we damn well better for Larks)


Term is definitely a part of it too. Bert keeps saying he wants to stay in Detroit. It sure doesn't look like it to me. Larkin is definitely a priority. I don't want to go into next season with Copp as our 1C. 😲
24 nov. 2022 à 13 h 19
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Quoting: Mystaes
You are overvaluing bert or undervaluing Coronato, who was taken 13th oa and has a decent D+1 under his belt. And even if we are still in the mix playoff time we may still trade him if a contract doesn’t look likely.



You are overvaluing the prospect/undervaluing the player, bert without retention was worth the 2022 11th oa pick by gsva going into this season. If Coronato becomes bertuzzi as his career path it would be a successful career.

When you get people so vehemently disagreeing in both directions it’s a good sign you got the value pretty close. See the linked poll.


No I'm not. When was the last time a rental returned a prospect of Coronato's caliber?

Your "linked poll" has 5 votes, 2 of which are probably you and me. Go post your proposal on HFBoards with a poll and see how that goes
24 nov. 2022 à 13 h 26
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Quoting: MoreHitzSeider
Don't listen to that guy. He thinks all Flames players and prospects are McDavid and Makar. Guy knows nothing.


Lol, you overvalue pending UFA's. I would gladly trade a 1st (and probably a B to B+ prospect) for Bert but Coronato is completely off the table. Fiala who is a better player than Bert, and wasn'ta pending UFA moved at the deadline was traded to LA who has multiple Coronato caliber prospects but instead they got Brock Faber (still a very solid prospect) and a 1st.

When was the last time a top 20 prospect was moved for a rental?
24 nov. 2022 à 13 h 32
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Modifié 24 nov. 2022 à 13 h 37
Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
Lol, you overvalue pending UFA's. I would gladly trade a 1st (and probably a B to B+ prospect) for Bert but Coronato is completely off the table. Fiala who is a better player than Bert, and wasn'ta pending UFA moved at the deadline was traded to LA who has multiple Coronato caliber prospects but instead they got Brock Faber (still a very solid prospect) and a 1st.

When was the last time a top 20 prospect was moved for a rental?


Erik brannstrom traded in 2019 along with multiple other pieces for Mark Stone, just off the top of my head. This was when brannstrom still looked good on his development path. Yes he was signed to an extension afterwards.

Top15/20 picks get traded all the time. Yes for UFAs. It really isn’t that rare.

Owen tippet - albeit further along his development path and not looking as good - was included for giroux when Florida had all the leverage from the nmc.

If you can’t remember top15 picks that go for UFAs then you are being willfully obtuse.

Coronato is a good top15 picked prospect but he certainly is not something so special that they aren’t moved in these transactions all the time. Overrating of prospects is a trap many people fall into.

Also again, the value of the pending ufa contract by gsva was equivalent to an 11th oa pick this last draft. This is pretty fair value especially with retention thrown in.

The better argument would be that Calgary prefers to hold onto elc players, rather then a value standpoint, but as it stands Coronato probably won’t be a large contributor before they begin to drop off and exit the window. It will take several years of nhl play for him to become anything that will help the cup push.
24 nov. 2022 à 13 h 35
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You can't break up Bert and Erne
24 nov. 2022 à 13 h 40
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Quoting: Mystaes
You are overvaluing bert or undervaluing Coronato, who was taken 13th oa and has a decent D+1 under his belt. And even if we are still in the mix playoff time we may still trade him if a contract doesn’t look likely.



You are overvaluing the prospect/undervaluing the player, bert without retention was worth the 2022 11th oa pick by gsva going into this season. If Coronato becomes bertuzzi as his career path it would be a successful career.

When you get people so vehemently disagreeing in both directions it’s a good sign you got the value pretty close. See the linked poll.


There's no comparison, Bert has 6 years of NHL experience Coronato 0 Yzerman isn't stupid While yeah Coronto is a bluechip prospect still not enough for Bertuzzi at 50% retained.
24 nov. 2022 à 14 h 1
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Quoting: Mystaes
Erik brannstrom traded in 2019 along with multiple other pieces for Mark Stone, just off the top of my head. This was when brannstrom still looked good on his development path. Yes he was signed to an extension afterwards.

Top15/20 picks get traded all the time. Yes for UFAs. It really isn’t that rare.

Owen tippet - albeit further along his development path and not looking as good - was included for giroux when Florida had all the leverage from the nmc.

If you can’t remember top15 picks that go for UFAs then you are being willfully obtuse.

Coronato is a good top15 picked prospect but he certainly is not something so special that they aren’t moved in these transactions all the time. Overrating of prospects is a trap many people fall into.

Also again, the value of the pending ufa contract by gsva was equivalent to an 11th oa pick this last deadline. This is pretty fair value especially with retention thrown in.

The better argument would be that Calgary prefers to hold onto elc players, rather then a value standpoint, but as it stands Coronato probably won’t be a large contributor before they begin to drop off and exit the window. It will take several years of nhl play for him to become anything that will help the cup push.


Top 20 pick =/= top 20 prospects. A top 20 prospect is over multiple draft years and based on how those prospects have developed since they were drafted. In the most recent prospect rankings Coronato was ranked 15th in the league.

Erik Brannstrom is a decent example but similar to him was Juuso Valimaki at the time. Who Calgary refused to trade for Mark Stone as a pure rental. That exact same situation applies here, Calgary can't re-sign Bert so he is purely a rental. Part of the reason Vegas moved forward with the trade was the allowance to talk to Stone and negotiate a deal and they were confident in being able to sign him without major cap issues. Now before you get ahead of yourself, Bert and Stone are not remotely the same caliber player.

Tippet is a decent prospect but he was certainly not in the top 50 by the time he was traded.

Where are you getting this GSVA thing from? Last deadline is very different from this deadline too. Last deadline he had term on his deal, this one he does not. That makes a substantial difference and if you don't get that look at the price Tampa paid for guys like Coleman, Goodrow, and Hagel vs what they paid for a similar caliber player in Nick Paul
acetate a aimé ceci.
24 nov. 2022 à 14 h 11
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Modifié 24 nov. 2022 à 14 h 52
Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
Top 20 pick =/= top 20 prospects. A top 20 prospect is over multiple draft years and based on how those prospects have developed since they were drafted. In the most recent prospect rankings Coronato was ranked 15th in the league.

Erik Brannstrom is a decent example but similar to him was Juuso Valimaki at the time. Who Calgary refused to trade for Mark Stone as a pure rental. That exact same situation applies here, Calgary can't re-sign Bert so he is purely a rental. Part of the reason Vegas moved forward with the trade was the allowance to talk to Stone and negotiate a deal and they were confident in being able to sign him without major cap issues. Now before you get ahead of yourself, Bert and Stone are not remotely the same caliber player.

Tippet is a decent prospect but he was certainly not in the top 50 by the time he was traded.

Where are you getting this GSVA thing from? Last deadline is very different from this deadline too. Last deadline he had term on his deal, this one he does not. That makes a substantial difference and if you don't get that look at the price Tampa paid for guys like Coleman, Goodrow, and Hagel vs what they paid for a similar caliber player in Nick Paul


If I said deadline what I meant was in the offseason when red wings fans were mocking trades, so when only 1 year of the UFA was left. I agree bert would be more valuable if he had two years left but he does not.

You can find GSVA models via evolving hockey and or the athletic, though those are only some and both paid subscription. Particular picks also have their own expected GSVA or GAR. A 11th oa for example is ~5.7 as per the athletic.

Also, I am extremely reticent to accept Coronato as a top20 nhl prospect: there are many more names deserving of that ahead of him, and TheHockeyWriters is most certainly not my go too for prospect rankings.

He did not break Craig buttons top 50 https://www.tsn.ca/buffalo-sabres-d-owen-power-craig-button-s-annual-top-prospects-list-1.1784411

Whereas Scott Wheeler at the Athletic put him at 42.

Those are very; very stark differences, and probably explains our positions the best.

To me he is maybe a top 75-top 50 prospect. To you he is a top15. It is not that we have different values for Bertuzzi, it is that we are in different worlds for Coronato.
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24 nov. 2022 à 14 h 52
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Quoting: Mystaes
If I said deadline what I meant was in the offseason when red wings fans were mocking trades, so when only 1 year of the UFA was left. I agree bert would be more valuable if he had two years left but he does not.

You can find GSVA models via evolving hockey and or the athletic, though those are only some and both paid subscription. Particular picks also have their own expected GSVA or GAR. A 11th oa for example is ~5.7 as per the athletic.

Also, I am extremely reticent to accept Coronato as a top20 nhl prospect: there are many more names deserving of that ahead of him, and TheHockeyWriters is most certainly not my go too for prospect rankings.

He did not break Craig buttons top 50 https://www.tsn.ca/buffalo-sabres-d-owen-power-craig-button-s-annual-top-prospects-list-1.1784411

Whereas Scott Wheeler at the Athletic put him at 42.

Those are very; very stark differences.


You can keep telling yourself he is worth 11th OA all you want but there is just simply no team across the entire league that will pay that actual price in a top end prospect. Could he end up returning a haul? Yeah probably but expect it to be broken down into a 1st round pick and a prospect or 2, not a single high end piece. Rental's are just far to hard to justify trading 8+ years of a bluechip prospect for I also have both EH and the Athletic if you can link the specific article or image for Bert that shows his GSVA that would be very nice

Craig Button's list here is a complete mystery to me, Why is Cody Glass listed on there at all, Brink, Rathbone, and Chromiak probably shouldn't have made that list either. Don't get me wrong they are all solid prospects (Glass isn't a prospect at this point) but it's like Button just completely forgot some prospects existed. Like where is Cole Perfetti, Shane Pinto, Chaz Lucius, Fabian Lysell, Alex Turcotte, Phillip Broberg, Callen Addison, etc... I generally like Craig's lists (not pun intended) but that one is just bad. Craig does however have 2 other Flames prospects on that list, Coronato is definitely a better prospect than Pelletier who he ranks 34th

Speaking of Scott Wheeler he did a lot of articles on the IIHF tournament which took place after his prospect rankings article. He was very adamant on he considered Coronto the clear best forward on team USA that tournament. Coronato has since then followed up with being one of the single best players so far in the NCAA this year only really trailing Fantilli

I suggest you make a poll on HFBoards for this proposal, I expect it won't go nearly as well as you think
 
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