1. Hayes will be protected
2. Orlov will be protected
3. Rust will be protected
4. Nelson will be protected

I can almost gurantee all four of those

Rust I might be wrong on, but the way it stands now the Rangers need to leave Hayes exposed because they need to leave two under contract forwards exposed. Nash (NMC), Stepan, Zibanejad, Miller, Kreider, and Zuccarello will all take priority over him. Orlov also I think is gonna suffer from the numbers game, Niskanen, Carlson, and Alzner all ahead of him.

Caps won't protect Alzner as he is a UFA and he would have to agree on a contract with Vegas. You only mentioned 6 NYR forwards who would take priority over Hayes, he will be the 7th forward and Vegas will probably pick Grabner. If Pittsburgh doesn't protect Domoulin, they will definitely protect Rust. Isles can either leave both De Haan and Hickey unprotected, or protect one and leave Nelson and Strome exposed.

The Rangers have 8 under contract forwards and need to leave two of them exposed per the rules of the expansion draft. They need to leave two of Nash, Stepan, Zibanejad, Miller, Kreider, Zuccarello, Hayes, and Grabner exposed unless they trade for another under contract forward.

Forgot about Alzner being a UFA, so that's fair enough. For the Pens I had their protection list as Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, Hornqvist, Letang, Maatta, Schultz, and Pouliot, but I may be overvaluing Pouliot.

A lot of the picks that you made are players that are eligible for expansion:

Pokka, Hunter,

Both Pokka and Shinkaruk have played 3 seasons in the AHL, so they are eligible.