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Mock Draft based on likelihood

Mock Draft based on likelihood

Cuvée de repêchage: 2022
Créé par: Halfy
Publié: 13 juin 2022 à 16 h 55
Description
Based on rumours/what some of the experts think. Obviously, there will be reaches that blow up the rumours and what experts think. Read pick descriptions. Remember, these are NOT my picks for the teams, it's where I think they go based on rumours and experts opinions. When I say experts, I mean sources from the Athletic, NHL.com (although not really I'm not a huge fan of those guys), Elite Prospects, as well as other evaluators.
RONDE 1ÉQUIPEORIGINALJOUEURDéTAILS
1Logo de Canadiens de Montréal-Montreal won't want to get booed by their hometown fans if they take anyone else but Wright, even if he may not be at the top of their draft board. Think the hometown factor guarantees Wright number 1.
2Logo de Devils du New Jersey-Experts suggest that NJ will take Slaf here due to their obvious depth at Center. I think Cooley is still a possibility though, since he is capable of playing winger. Devils take the size and skill of Slafkovsky though.
3Logo de Coyotes de l'Arizona-Arizona takes best player available to help restock (or start stocking?) the prospect pool. Can't wait to see Cooley scoring Michigans in front of 3200 fans.
4Logo de Kraken de Seattle-Experts suggesting that he fits Seattle much better than Jiricek. They will almost definitely take a dman here.
5Logo de Flyers de Philadelphie-Apparently there is some chatter that Philly may go in an unexpected direction here. The Flyers take Gauthier as they are enamored by the size/skill combo that he can bring. They also view him as a Center apparently as many teams have been. Pretty much down to Jiricek or Gauthier here.
6Logo de Blue Jackets de ColumbusLogo de Blackhawks de ChicagoColumbus will likely be after a finisher, but based off their past, it has been suggested that they may really like Jiricek. I think it comes down to Kemell or Jiricek here with Jiricek winning out. With the recent pick of Kent Johnson though, I wouldn't be surprised to see Savoie or Lekkerimaki here either, depending on what happens in front of them. The Johnson pick seemed to me and some of the experts that I have read as another indication that we have no real indication how Jarmo views forward prospects. I mean heck, they took Chinakhov. Who knows lmao
7Logo de Sénateurs d'Ottawa-Is there a big 6'2+ player out of the USNDP available? No? Well, Idk then. JK. Sorry Sens fans. Anyways, apparently theyre most interested in Savoie and Kemell here. There's no doubt they need more gamebreaking skill to surround their team of grinders and lunch pail guys. I could definitely see Gauthier here if he is still availble. Also, apparently the Ottawa scouts have been at multiple Winnipeg ICE games. What if they weren't looking at Savoie? Anyways, I think they go Kemell here.
8Logo de Red Wings de Detroit-I think this comes down to Kasper vs Savoie. We all know the tendency with SHL players and the Red Wings, and we also know that Stevie Y will reach if he really likes a player. Honestly, I am torn with what the Wings decide to do, considering the word is that the scouts definitely feel this is a bit early for Kasper. For the sake of this mock I'll say they do it. Also, apparently scouts weren't thrilled with the end to the season for Savoie and then his injury. Someone has gotta reach right?
9Logo de Sabres de Buffalo-With Dahlin, Power and to a lesser extent Johnson already in the system, I see them taking a forward here. They also have many talented wingers in the system, so I think they take Savoie here as they believe he has a chance to play Center at the next level. Reuniting him with former ICE captain Peyton Krebs.
10Logo de Ducks d'Anaheim-We all know there has to be 3 defencemen in the top 10 right? There always is. So if the Ducks don't go D here, someone before them will surprise and take one. I could see them taking Korchinski or Mintyukov here to compliment their small super skilled Zellweger and Drysdale. They also traded Lindholm so taking a bigger (than what they have) D would make a lot of sense here. It's tough for me to see another team pass on Lekkerimaki though, but someone is going to drop, right?
11Logo de Sharks de San Jose-Their prospect pool is relatively bare on defence, and the experts speculate that this will lead to them taking a defenceman. Lekkerimaki would look good in their system too though, alongside Eklund and co. Mateychuk, WHL-finalist Korchinski, and Mintyukov are all options. I also just wonder if some teams devalue Mintyukov due to the Russian factor (even though he's already in NA with the brutal Spirit.) For the sake of this mock I'll say they go back to the WHL with Mateychuk.
12Logo de Blue Jackets de Columbus-I think if they go forward with their first pick, they'll go D here and take one of the aforementioned group. I have them mocked with Jiricek, so I think they'll go Forward here. Geekie and Yurov are both reportedly options here. Multiple firsts make this pick easier to jump off the board a bit and take another Russian. However, I'm not sure again about Russians in this draft. Lekkerimaki would check all the boxes here for them however. A nice sniper to match with Johnson. the drop ends here.
13Logo de Islanders de New York-Geekie is an option here. I think he'll actually go higher than this, considering GMs will literally trip over themselves to take size. They could also use a D prospect here as well considering the cupboards are bare. Who knows what Lou will do. I'm putting Geekie here, but I'm not confident about it. I think Geekie will be gone by now anyways so I'm confident in that.
14Logo de Jets de Winnipeg-If you look at the past drafts for the Jets, they haven't taken a defenceman high up in a while. I could see them doing that, but they have some real interesting prospects in Heinola, Samberg, Chisholm, Gawanke, Flint's Kuzmin, etc. I think the smart call (as a Jets fan theres obviously bias that will be here), would be to wait until pick 30 to grab a second/third tier dman that may be right handed (they have a very thin RHD prospect pool). I'd like to see more finishing talent added to the system. The Jets have also shown they are willing to take the BPA if someone falls to them (think Connor, Perfetti and even Lucius to a lesser extent). They also like their Americans so they could definitely go USNTDP here. I could however see them reach for a bigger D here and then wait to take their skill guy at 30. Options look like Nazar, Howard, Chesley for USNTDP guys, Mintyukov as a dman slated around here (LHD), and Bichsel, Pickering as later defenceman who are probably going to go much earlier than the public expects due to size. I think it ends up coming down to Mintyukov or a US guy. I think in the end they probably take Mintyukov. I'd LOVE Nazar here, but apparently teams aren't as high on him as the general public is.
15Logo de Canucks de Vancouver-I like the fit of Ohgren here. It's a new management team so we don't quite know fully yet how they intend to run their drafts. That will be interesting to see. Vancouver is kind of in a position where they can just add the top player on their list as opposed to going for a positional fit. I could see Ohgren reasonably being that guy. I wonder also if someone like Kulich would be high up due to his excellent U18 point production (mostly on the PP). Jim usually doesn't have 1st rounders so who knows what he does.
16Logo de Sabres de BuffaloLogo de Golden Knights de VegasI think this is where teams may start considering Lambert and Yurov as big swings. Kulich is also a consideration. With multiple picks, I think the Sabres swing for the fences instead of trying to take a "safer" pick (meaning they should/will target high upside). I think Lambert goes here. The Sabres may also look to try to bring him over ASAP but that's only my opinion.
17Logo de Predators de Nashville-Supposedly, the Predators will probably try to look to target a Dman after a string of years taking forwards early. Speculation suggests Lian Bichsel will be a much higher pick than initially thought. Nashville takes him here.
18Logo de Stars de Dallas-The Stars have had an annoyingly good last two drafts, taking Mavrik Bourque, Wyatt Johnston and Logan Stankoven. Experts speculate that they will go with a defenceman because of this, so Pickering or Chesley make sense. However, just because it would be so annoying, they get another unbelievable talent in Frank Nazar and something really starts to build. It's getting later in the draft, so my personal touches are going to be on some of these picks now. I just can't imagine a team continues to let him drop.
19Logo de Kings de Los Angeles-LA has a well documented deep system. I think they can go one of two ways here: take BPA or take a swing on someone like a Miroshnichenko if they are confident about his health, or a Yurov. Yes, the Russian factor could also be at play here to make the pick even riskier. I say they go option 2 and go riskier. Yurov.
20Logo de Capitals de Washington-Experts suggest the Capitals may take a defenceman here if they are high enough up on their list due to their recent forward picks. If Pickering or Chesley are high enough on their list I could see it. Kulich and Yurov are also possible. I'm saying that Pickering is the guy. He's like their prospect Vincent Iorio but significantly better.
21Logo de Penguins de Pittsburgh-The Penguins have the worst prospect pool in the NHL. Experts suggest that they need to hit in order to start the next phase of Penguins hockey. Two names that I've seen mentioned are McGroarty and Gaucher. However, I wonder if they feel a guy like Kulich is too good to pass up. However, I believe that the Burke/Hextall duo will value the "safe" pick and take McGroarty. Hard to imagine Kulich continuing to "fall" considering his U18 performance but for the purposes of this mock, he is.
22Logo de Ducks d'AnaheimLogo de Bruins de BostonWith Zegras and McTavish down the middle, and now Zellweger, Korchinski and Drysdale on D, the Ducks have something cooking. I think they're in a position where they take the best available forward. I could see them believing it is Kulich. Taking another American here is very possible too (like Howard or Snuggerud). I got them with Kulich because I still believe some team will overrate his largely PP driven point production from the U18. Don't get me wrong though, Kulich is still a very good player with intriguing tools. It's not a bad pick at all.
23Logo de Blues de St-Louis-I see the Blues going Defence here. The cupboards are pretty bare on D and they could use a bluechip guy here. If Pickering or Bichsel is here, I think they snap them up easily, based on their perceived success with bigger Dmen recently. Here though, theres nobody too too big left on the board, but the best available in most teams eyes is Ryan Chesley. Supposedly NHL scouts just love his game. He's a bit more of a "safer" pick, but I think a good bet to be an NHL player. I think he's a safe bet to go somewhere around here.
24Logo de Wild du Minnesota-I've seen experts suggest Yurov here if he is available. Minnesota has an excellent crop of Centers , D and G. I've seen experts suggest Howard here. That seems like it fits, considering they took another pretty good NTDP winger a few years ago (Boldy). Also, with how strong their system is, experts wonder if Miroshnichenko could be a guy here. IMO you'd have to be REALLY confident to take Miroshnichenko here, given the Russian factor and obviously the concerns around his health. However, there was no doubt about the talent. He and Yurov are both borderline top 10 talents that have dropped for similar and also different reasons (health and russian factor, both didnt play much for different reasons).
25Logo de Maple Leafs de Toronto-We all know the Leafs are going to draft the most skilled player possible if they make a selection here. Experts look at Ostlund and Firkus as two names to watch, in addition to Howard if available. I'm going Ostlund here as Ostlund is ranked higher by consensus than Firkus. Another name I'd like to throw out is Lane Hutson. Don't discount Dubas taking the slight defenceman here. The raw data suggests this could be a home run pick if Hutson grows a little more. I'll also throw Mesar in this mix.
26Logo de Canadiens de MontréalLogo de Flames de CalgaryIf the new management team wants to endear themselves to the hometown fans, do they take a local French kid here? Luneau or Gaucher would work. I've also seen people suggest that Snuggerud would be an option here. I'm thinking they take Gaucher here. Think he's a pretty safe 3C of the future.
27Logo de Coyotes de l'ArizonaLogo de Hurricanes de la CarolineFilip Mesar told a group of reporters that he thought the Lightning and Coyotes were the most interested in him. So, based on that, I will slot him into one of these picks here. Scott Wheeler hypothesizes that the Coyotes could take him here if hes their guy if the Avalanche win the Cup putting Tampa at 31 in front of their next pick. Literally for that reason only, I'm going Mesar. Also, this is his range anyways. Coyotes should do the reverse Ottawa and take as much skill as possible with all their picks. If a couple of them hit, you could have stars instead of just good nhl players...but that's only my opinion.
28Logo de Sabres de BuffaloLogo de Panthers de la FlorideTaking 2 forwards already, I could see the Sabres go a couple ways here. They go with another big home run swing (which I already have one in Lambert going here, so this would probably depend on if they swing big on their second pick or not), or they could take a defenceman. For the purposes of this mock, I am going to give them a defenceman, but I wouldn't be shocked to see Firkus or Miroshnichenko here if they decide to take a swing at someone with massive talent. Like I said before, this may depend on that second pick. I see them taking one of the better RHD available in order to balance out their handedness in the prospect pool (Power, Johnson and in the NHL Dahlin are all LH). Sam Rinzel is the pick here. This is a guy I've seen rumours about sneaking into Round 1, and a team with 3 first round picks can gamble on the tantalizing tools that he possesses.
29Logo de Oilers d'Edmonton-Frankly, I have no idea who the Oilers would target. I have strong opinions of Ken Holland that I am not going to share here. Bourgault and Holloway seem like solid picks, though. I've seen Jack Hughes and other forwards like Firkus listed here. However, this is completely my thoughts, I think the Oilers improve their D core here. I've got Luneau as the pick. Think he's a safe bet to be an NHL player for them, so that Ken can stop acquiring past-their-prime former stanley cup winners on D. Sorry I had to.
30Logo de Jets de WinnipegLogo de Rangers de New YorkI know who I would like the Jets to take here...and I also know what kind of pick I would make here. I would take Jagger Firkus in a heartbeat. I'd take the most skilled player available. After taking yet another Left shot D at 14, however, the Jets will likely go best forward on their list. As I said before though, if they go forward with their first pick, I see them taking that third tier of defenceman here. Looking at the RD like Luneau, Casey, Rinzel, Odelius (LS). However, I don't know if I see them taking another small D this early, but they have shown their willingness. Assuming they take their highest rated forward here, Owen Beck, Jimmy Snuggerud, and Luca Del Bel Belluz scream Jets pick to me. I'm going to give the Jets Owen Beck here.
31Logo de Lightning de Tampa Bay-In possibly the most annoying pick of the draft, the Lightning take a small skilled forward out of Moose Jaw. Where have we seen this before? (I've also seen speculation that Miroshnichenko could be the pick here)
32Logo de Coyotes de l'ArizonaLogo de Avalanche du ColoradoIn terms of this draft, I think this pick would come down to Snuggerud (Cooley's linemate at the NTDP) or Miroshnichenko (gamble on the top 10 talent). For the purpose of this mock, I'm going to give them Snuggerud. I think it's very possible that Miroshnichenko slips to Round 2 due to the Russian factor and his health.
RONDE 2ÉQUIPEORIGINALJOUEURDéTAILS
33Logo de Canadiens de Montréal-The following picks are players that I believe could sneak into the first round. THESE NEXT PICKS ARE NOT WHO I BELIEVE THESE TEAMS WILL TAKE.
34Logo de Coyotes de l'Arizona-
35Logo de Kraken de Seattle-
36Logo de Coyotes de l'ArizonaLogo de Flyers de Philadelphie
37Logo de Devils du New Jersey-
38Logo de Blackhawks de Chicago-
39Logo de Sénateurs d'Ottawa-Apparently several scouts believe that the tiny defenceman is a first round pick, and one team will take a huge swing at him. I personally just couldn't find a spot to fit him in my mock.
40Logo de Red Wings de Detroit-
41Logo de Sabres de Buffalo-
42Logo de Ducks d'Anaheim-
43Logo de Coyotes de l'ArizonaLogo de Sharks de San Jose
44Logo de Blue Jackets de Columbus-
45Logo de Coyotes de l'ArizonaLogo de Islanders de New York
46Logo de Capitals de WashingtonLogo de Jets de WinnipegInevitably, someone will probably take someone outside of what I have listed above however, but these are the names I keep seeing.Possible someone LOVES the size here.
47Logo de Wild du MinnesotaLogo de Canucks de Vancouver/fin
48Logo de Golden Knights de Vegas-
49Logo de Kraken de SeattleLogo de Predators de Nashville
50Logo de Stars de Dallas-
51Logo de Kings de Los Angeles-
52Logo de Red Wings de DetroitLogo de Capitals de Washington
53Logo de Ducks d'AnaheimLogo de Penguins de Pittsburgh
54Logo de Bruins de Boston-
55Logo de Jets de WinnipegLogo de Blues de St-Louis
56Logo de Wild du Minnesota-
57Logo de Blackhawks de ChicagoLogo de Wild du Minnesota
58Logo de Kraken de SeattleLogo de Maple Leafs de Toronto
59Logo de Flames de Calgary-
60Logo de Hurricanes de la Caroline-
61Logo de Kraken de SeattleLogo de Panthers de la Floride
62Logo de Canadiens de MontréalLogo de Oilers d'Edmonton
63Logo de Rangers de New York-
64Logo de Sénateurs d'OttawaLogo de Lightning de Tampa Bay
65Logo de Islanders de New YorkLogo de Avalanche du Colorado
13 juin 2022 à 17 h 22
#1
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I don't think the Ducks would take Korchinski at 10, he's a relatively big reach. It's very risky and, while he has more size than Zellweger and Drysdale, he would be yet another offensive minded Defensemen in the Top 4 and I doubt that's what the Ducks would do. But everything's possible of course.

I can't see the Sharks passing on Lekkerimäki, he fills a need and his chemistry with Eklund is undeniable.

How does Nazar fall that far? > Geekie, Öhgren, Lambert, Mateychuk (, Mintyukov, Korchinski).

I agree that Kulich's stats are overblown and he does get overrated by some. I think he should go in the 25-32 range. Not a bad pick but I don't think he's the best forward available.

Trikozov at 37 would be one of my prime candidatse for the steal of the draft.

Seminoff at 42 is way too high imo.
13 juin 2022 à 17 h 59
#2
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Pittsburgh prospect pool stays underrated, not good, but underrated
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14 juin 2022 à 0 h 33
#3
chibrikov is a steal
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Good work on this! I wouldn't see Nazar or Lambert fall past the Jets, in fact I don't think the Jets will go for defenseman at all in the first round. I think the prospects you mentioned (Samberg, Heinola, Chisholm, Gawanke, and Kuzmin) are enough to push them over the edge and back into playoff contention. As a Jets fan, I want two things: a shoot-first forward and a tall power forward. Lambert and Nazar would be good options for them at 14th. Also I think Jani Nyman is also a solid option for them at 30th. But that's just my opinion.

Where exactly did you hear about the rumors about Ottawa wanting Savoie or Kemell. Also the talk about the Flyers going in an unexpected direction?

Once again, great work on this, like the effort you put into this!
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14 juin 2022 à 2 h 29
#4
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This is a great post! I agree with a lot of your analysis.
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14 juin 2022 à 10 h 4
#5
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Quoting: TZ11
I don't think the Ducks would take Korchinski at 10, he's a relatively big reach. It's very risky and, while he has more size than Zellweger and Drysdale, he would be yet another offensive minded Defensemen in the Top 4 and I doubt that's what the Ducks would do. But everything's possible of course.

I can't see the Sharks passing on Lekkerimäki, he fills a need and his chemistry with Eklund is undeniable.

How does Nazar fall that far? > Geekie, Öhgren, Lambert, Mateychuk (, Mintyukov, Korchinski).

I agree that Kulich's stats are overblown and he does get overrated by some. I think he should go in the 25-32 range. Not a bad pick but I don't think he's the best forward available.

Trikozov at 37 would be one of my prime candidatse for the steal of the draft.

Seminoff at 42 is way too high imo.


The second round picks are not part of the mock draft. Those are guys that I have seen get first round consideration by experts and others like it. I made note of that in the notes, but I can see how it could be missed. Reminder that these picks are not what I would do, but what I think may happen based on rumours and what scouts/experts have been suggesting.

I will be making a "what I would do" if I was each team mock draft later, but for now this is my prediction based on all the available information that I have.
14 juin 2022 à 10 h 6
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Quoting: christianyog
Good work on this! I wouldn't see Nazar or Lambert fall past the Jets, in fact I don't think the Jets will go for defenseman at all in the first round. I think the prospects you mentioned (Samberg, Heinola, Chisholm, Gawanke, and Kuzmin) are enough to push them over the edge and back into playoff contention. As a Jets fan, I want two things: a shoot-first forward and a tall power forward. Lambert and Nazar would be good options for them at 14th. Also I think Jani Nyman is also a solid option for them at 30th. But that's just my opinion.

Where exactly did you hear about the rumors about Ottawa wanting Savoie or Kemell. Also the talk about the Flyers going in an unexpected direction?

Once again, great work on this, like the effort you put into this!


I think Nyman is too early at 30, but with their second pick it would be okay. I personally just don't see anything worth a 1st round pick to him at this time. Regarding Ottawa, I've seen numerous members of Ottawa media/blogs suggest it on twitter as well as Scott Wheeler discussed it in the Athletic. Ditto with the Flyers information.

One thing that was suggested to me regarding the Jets was that they may stay away from Russia/OHL this year as the OHL missed the full season last year. So, that is something to watch. Obviously my mock here has both lol
14 juin 2022 à 10 h 38
#7
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Quoting: Halfy
The second round picks are not part of the mock draft. Those are guys that I have seen get first round consideration by experts and others like it. I made note of that in the notes, but I can see how it could be missed. Reminder that these picks are not what I would do, but what I think may happen based on rumours and what scouts/experts have been suggesting.

I will be making a "what I would do" if I was each team mock draft later, but for now this is my prediction based on all the available information that I have.


Didn't see that it's not a real ranking, sorry for that. But that doesn't really change my opinion, I can't see Seminoff in the 1st round, the highest ranking he's gotten (that I know of) is 55th. All others have him in the 60s or lower.
14 juin 2022 à 11 h 23
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Quoting: TZ11
Didn't see that it's not a real ranking, sorry for that. But that doesn't really change my opinion, I can't see Seminoff in the 1st round, the highest ranking he's gotten (that I know of) is 55th. All others have him in the 60s or lower.


I wouldn't have him in the top 45 that's for sure.
14 juin 2022 à 13 h 38
#9
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Can't see Allvin passing on Nazar
14 juin 2022 à 19 h 1
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I think you've made a really nice mock here, that is much more realistic than most on this site. Good work! People get really married to prospect rankings and don't actually pay as much attention to trends, or for that matter how players' stocks change throughout a season.

I agree that big defensemen with high ceilings will go earlier. Korchisnki Top-10 feels very possible. Bichsel high as well, I have him at 15. I'm a Wings fan and have been hoping for months Kasper is our pick, so happy to see him climb.

And most of all, I think people fall in love with smaller skill players who dominate the weaker CHL leagues where there is more time and space, and then struggle when that space evaporates in the pros. Savoie is the clearest example -- I could easily see him falling outside the Top-10, but most people think that's crazy. Same for Nazar. Lekkerimaki is weak in the D zone so I could see him falling as well. Mintyukov, Chesley, Pickering I think will surprise the masses in how high they go.

Good work!
 
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