It seldom makes sense to move good players on ELCs lol especially when the Devils had like 20 total games with both Jack and Nico this year or whatever it was.

Addison is a game changer in this deal tbh. Would you do Holtz or Sharangovicb instead of Mercer though? I just don’t think NJ plans on moving Mercer (even though I think your value is spot on)

100% he could, just from what we know of him, he’s a great kid, I don’t see him caring where he’s at, as long as he’s getting paid a lot and feels loved.

Would love to see some analytics to prove that. If you think Mercer is a superstar, yeah sure I buy that. But if he’s just a top 6 guy, not so sure about that. Does Mercer at wing help your team more than Fiala at wing does?

I don't think he's a superstar. I just think he's a top 6 F who can play C if one of our star centers goes down.

It could over the course of the team control for both players. I'm a big analytics guy so when I look at 20 year old Dawson Mercer and his estimated impact + contracts + team control + aging curve for both players, could easily see it being more valuable.

Remember, he doesn't need to be better than Fiala. He just needs to provide more surplus value over his contract. Does that make sense? I'm not sure how long Fiala will provide surplus value over his 8M- could be a year, could be 4 or 5. I'm reasonably confident Mercer will provide surplus value for at least the next 6.

That’s possible, but no guarantee. Mercer could also fizzle out. He had 42 points, solid rookie season but wasn’t remarkable. Also a -25. Analytics are great to get value, but you also have to build the right team and fit. NJDs need more scoring right? Not sure Mercer is going to produce more than 42 points, possible but no guarantee. It’s a risk you’re taking. Fiala is a PPG player, proven. He’s only 25, so producing PPG seasons for 5+ seasons should be expected. That’s what this comes down to, a known PPG quantity vs potential and cheap contract. I’d also argue with a good C Fiala could be over 100 points guy. He’s still got potential, he’s been with bad linemates his entire MN career (until got a rookie Boldy and they clicked). Imagine when he gets 2 solid linemates. I wish they’d keep him, but it feels like BG knows he’s getting the means to a top 6 C by trading him.

The Devils really don't need more scoring imo, based on where they are in their rebuilding process.

11th in GF/60 (5v5)
12th in CF/60 (5v5)
12th in xGF/60 (5v5)

That's with the age of their top 6 as follows

24 - 20 - 20
25 - 23 - 23

Next year, with Holtz - probably the best drafted goalscorer not in the NHL right now (Quinn has an argument too)

20 - 21 - 20
25 - 23 - 23

Increased scoring comes simply with age and experience here.

Just don't see "scoring" as a need they need to trade premium assets for right now, especially when they are adding Slafkovsky (or Cooley) up front and L. Hughes on the backend.

They should trust what they've built. I don't think it takes too much to see how they're setting up to be quite the contender in the near future (pending a goalie)

Also, I simply have to comment. 42 points as a 20 year old rookie in the NHL is only "solid" but not "remarkable"? That would have been T-7 on the Wild this year. Feel like that is worthy of remarks lol

The Fiala is a fit at all, not sure why people keep saying he is. Holtz is still a project, it’s no guarantee he’s as good as Fiala. Everyone always forgets how many prospects don’t live up to the hype.

It was a solid season, not remarkable. Look at the age 20 seasons of great players, lots of players with more than that. Seems like semantics on your part. Remarkable to me is elite, eye opening. I don’t think that’s 42 points. Basically I’m saying I don’t think he should be untouchable because he got 42 points as a 20 year old. McDavid year 20 season- 108, that’s remarkable. Pastranak 70 in 75 games- remarkable. We Just have different meanings of the word remarkable I guess, mine is striking, and that’s not striking to me. It’s a solid season, above Avg for sure but not worthy of my attention.

I’m curious if you know how much Fitz takes analytics into his decision making process? If he’s a big analytical guy, I don’t think he’ll go after a UFA or Fiala.

HBSE, and thus the Devils, are extremely analytics driven and apparently leaning even more into it.

Fwiw, Fiala is absolutely an analytics darling. lol

I assumed by your previous comment that Fiala wouldn’t be an analytical darling once he’s making 7-8 mil per lol.

it's about the surplus. Fiala can still have great analytics if he's making 8M. He can be worth more than his deal.

Aging curves are a thing though and I don't know if he's worth the money for 7 years. Idk if the Devils care much about it, either. They may feel pressure to win now. I hope they stay the course.

Yeah, that’s what I was getting at really. Just based it off your previous comment on age/ contract value. That’s exactly the thing that can ruin a patient analytical plan, when a GM feels the heat to start winning now. I know past RFAs haven’t gotten much value but it feels like the market is different this year. A few teams that haven’t been to the playoffs in awhile have good rebuilding plans in place and have assets to jump start their competitive rebound. Having lots of assets is great, but there are only a certain number of spots available. That’s why Mercer being moved wouldn’t surprise me, plug Fiala and 2OA into that top 6 and you’ve got quite the forward core. Hughes and Nico at C, Bragg, Yegor, Juraj (2OA), and Fiala. That’s a playoff top 6 for sure IMO.

Disagree, might just come down to preference but I generally think that having a stronger set of centers is more valuable than moving that 3rd center to the top six at wing.
The marginal improvement of the top six is on balance less than the gains of being able to consistently roll with three lines centered by at least a 2nd line center, if that makes sense?

As for Mercer's play, it would work perfectly well at center long-term but I don't think he's a worse center than a winger or vice versa.
This is not the case for Hughes or Hischier who both play much better through the middle than at wing.

I get the idea. I just don't buy it. Or at least haven't seen any research that convinces me otherwise. Feed your best players the most time possible.

That's fair.
It's not like there's any material I can cite either.
Anyway, I see no reason why Mercer wouldn't play 2C behind Rossi in the hypothetical tragedy of him being traded there.

Just on time allocation, having three comparatively stronger lines could allow for not playing your 4th line anymore than a couple of minutes each night.
Couldn't this be a vehicle for getting your top guys as much ice time as possible (provided you have 7 or more "top guys")?

A hockey man playing 3 talented lines for 50 minutes just seems like a day dream at this point.

In the year of our Lord (Geertsen) 2025
Sharangovich - Hughes - Mercer
Holtz - Hischier - Bratt
Gritsyuk - Cooley - Puljujärvi
55-56 minutes evenlyish split between these lines.
And a line of Moynihan Mcleod Bastian get like 5 shifts each game.
Perfection.

devils twitter complains 24/7 that we aren't built of the playoffs.