I was curious to find out who Toffoli got all his goals with so I went to natural stat trick to find the data. Unsurprisingly, Toffoli spent the bulk of his 5v5 time with Suzuki (337 min), however I was surprised to see the 2nd most time he spent with anyone this year was Kotkaniemi (202 min). What shocked me is that Toffoli actually had a GF% of 72 with KK and only 42 with Suzuki! Toffoli and Suzuki actually get outplayed at 5 v 5 together, meaning most of their success comes off the powerplay. This led me down a rabbit hole of trying to figure out which players had the best results playing together in order to determine the optimal lineup for playoffs.
F Line 1: Prorated GF% = 78
Tatar - Danault - Gallagher
No surprise here, these three simply dominate together at 5 v 5. There are simply no other options as all three players put up their best numbers with each other. Match this line vs. Matthews.
F Line 2: Prorated GF% = 60
Toffoli - Suzuki - Armia
So this line combo wasn't as clear cut given that Suzuki and Toffoli have not fared well at 5v5 together, but what makes this line work is Joel Armia. Both players have put up their best GF% playing with Armia (71% for Toffoli and 67% for Suzuki). The feeling is mutual for Armia. This should be MTL's go to offensive line.
F Line 3: Prorated GF% = 57
Perry - Kotkaniemi - Anderson
For as good a player Anderson is, he is more of an individual in the sense that he has not meshed particularly well with anyone on the habs. He struggled with Danault (38%) and Toffoli (33%) so those combos should be avoided. His most common line mate is Kotkaniemi (203 min) and they were above average together (54%). Aside from Toffoli, KK matched up best with Perry (62%). This third line should be given specific instructions to punish the leafs everytime they are on the ice, finish every hit and crash the net.
F Line 4: Prorated GF% = 65
Byron - Evans - Lehkonen
Although this line is tagged as line 4 they have actually performed like line 2 this season based on results. As such, they should be relied upon to match up against the Tavares line and defend leads. Their speed brings a unique element to the lineup that needs to be used.
D Pair 1: GF% = 62%
Edmundson - Petry
Just solid, rely heavily on this pairing.
D Pair 2: GF% = 38
Chiarot - Weber
So first of all, ouch. This pairing was awful this year, however unfortunately the sample size is too small with everyone else that played with Chiarot to draw any other conclusions - it is a real shame that a pairing that struggled was never broken up to try other things this year. They were really strong in the playoff last year so they still get the benefit of the doubt. When trailing this pairing should be split up in favour of Kulak to help the transition game. If the other team plays the trap this pairing is useless IMO.
D Pair 3: GF% = 61
Kulak - Romanov
So in a sheltered role this pairing has performed really well. For what it's worth it was no different with Mete in over Kulak. It needs to be said that Romanov and Merrill have been terrible with a GF% of 18 - this pairing cannot play together in playoffs.
OTHER NOTES:
- Drouin and Caufield are wild cards. Drouin performed fine with KK (50%), and best with Suzuki and Anderson (53%). It is a real shame Caufield spent the majority of his time with Staal, because he is showing some results with Suzuki in a small sample size. Wasn't even tried with KK. I don't think he can handle the matchups Danault and Evans will be getting.
- Eric Staal is complete crap. These are his results with his 4 most common linemates up front: Perry (29%), Lehkonen (33%), Drouin and Frolik (8 GA, none for). The fact that Staal was getting preferential treatment at KK's expense when he was acquired is a total joke, and I wouldn't even be surprised to see him in the lineup over KK despite his terrible play ALL season. Forget the fact that KK has produced better results than Stall this year and let's pretend they are equal. If the organization chooses to play a 36 year old rental over a 20 year old 3rd overall pick (who can only develop in the NHL now because he requires waivers) I will lose it. I would generally consider myself a Bergevin supporter, but if this happens it is a fireable offense IMO. You cannot mishandle a 3rd overall pick this badly, you simply cannot miss on 3rd overall picks period. This will be KK and Galchenyuk now. I do not blame scouting, both were good picks but the development is just embarrassing.
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