Mantha for Caufield 1 for 1. The 2nd is for Byron and Weal, which has to happen to make the cap work. MTL's later second round pick, pretty close to being a 3rd.

Caufield > Mantha IMO

I'm probably with you on that. I was hesitant to add the pick at all. I'm not sure that the additional value Caufield brings is enough to pay for the wings taking Byron, but a second may be too much.

I wouldn't worry about whether or not the additional value of Caufield brings enough to pay the wings for taking Byron, as Montreal is not moving a potential 30-50 goal scorer for anything less than a package for McDavid\MacKinnon\Eichel and even then it would be hard for Montreal to accept losing him.

See, I think they would if they are getting a 30 goal scorer back because of 2 things. 1, their hot start to the year and potential status as a playoff team. The expectation of winning now seems to be there. And 2. Bergevin is fighting for his job. Caufield doesn't help now, and I really think he wants to win now. I don't think this trade is all that likely, but it's a dark horse I could see happening.

Mantha is not a 30 goal scorer, plus he has only once in his 6 year career played more than 67 games in a season. He is too often injured to warrant giving up an elite goal scorer like Caufiled for.

If he stays healthy, Mantha is a 30 goal scorer. He's having a down year no doubt but he's dominant when he's on and he's scored at a 30 goal pace the last 2 seasons. Caufield is a still just a potentially elite goal scorer at this point. Don't get me wrong, I think you're probably right, but I don't think it's that far off especially when the Byron contract is thrown in.