The whole 3rd line was sick tonight and it wasn't just JG and Wahly, Leo was chipping in too, in all three zones.

My thing with Bailey is that him on the first line just isn't working, yet they keep running it back every game (common theme with this group). I'd rather demote him first, then go to a scratch if his new role isn't working, but with the 2nd and 3rd lines playing well and the 4th line set in stone, that's kinda hard to do. So yeah, him sitting might be the best move at this point.

If Beauvillier isn't back on Tuesday, I'd be interested to see how Czarnik looks at 1RW, which sounds weird, but his speed and shot might compliment Barzal and Lee really well, kinda surprised we haven't used him more at this point

yeah I mean I strongly dislike Leo, but he probably had his best game as an islander - he was good tonight. I'd give him another game to reward him and then he should go back to the taxi squad. The 3rd line doesn't have a game like tonight with Johnston on that line. Wahlstrom played close to a perfect game, decisive with his zone exits, didn't hesitate to shoot and made some solid continuation plays. Theres obviously a lot more upside with playing him.

Bailey drags down the 1st line, its painful to watch. I agree, I'd rather see czarnik on the 1st line.

So what are your lines if beau is ready on Monday?

Hope they keep 28-29-7 together. I think 27-13-18, 28-29-7, 26-44-12 would be a pretty solid top 9

My lines would probably be what @islanders15 suggested, but replace Bailey with Leo, just for that one game to wake him up and keep that 3rd line's momentum, but again I'd really like to see Czarnik in there somewhere, but it's tough to say where exactly

I’m not sure beau is comfortable playing his off side, but if he is then I’m fine with that.

I’d put Czarnik with cizikas but of course martin and clutterbuck will never be scratched

At this point I'd say give Wahlstrom a shot on the first line, but he's struggling to play against non-checking lines still. If he was playing first line minutes I think he'd struggle even harder, getting checked in to the ground, but if he did Trotz can chalk it up to a failed experiment and go from there. xGF is "expected" goals for not actual goals for. I expect Barzal to score 50 he won't at least in this system. I expect Nelson to have scored by now he hasn't. Expectations mean nothing, it's what they actually do that count.

In my opinion place Bailey on the 3rd line RW spot, move Dal Colle to the 3rd line LW spot, Komorov should be placed on the taxi squad one good game out of how many bad ones? I doubt he's turned a corner. Eberle needs to stay on the 2nd line. I've been saying it since I joined this site he's a nothing better than a 2nd line winger and he's been scoring since playing on the 2nd line. It has nothing to do with line chemistry. If it did Nelson would be scoring as well. He's scoring because he's not up against the other teams best checkers.

Are you guys kidding me about Czarnik? He had one pretty descent game that's it. In a 121 games prior to that game he managed 38 points. I don't think he's the player you all think he is. I feel he deserves a 2nd look after the game he did have though, but I won't be expecting much.

I don't think wahlstrom is struggling at all and the numbers back that up. He did very well against Bergeron's line last night. Teams like Tampa Bay and Carolina use xgf when acquiring players, it's an important metric and shows that the player is generating quality scoring chances. So I wouldn't say it means nothing. The goals will come for wahlstrom, it's more important that he's generating on his own. NYR rookie Kaapo Kakko was one of the worst players in the league in terms of XGF, so for wahlstrom at 20 YO to lead all isles forwards in xgf is impressive. He's definitely earned more ice time.

Nelson was brutal in terms of XGF before eberle joined him. Nelson has played much better with Eberle and hes just snake bitten right now.

That "2nd line" of MDC-Nelson-Eberle is actually the 1st line. They have been getting the tougher matchups - yesterday Barzal's line was somewhat sheltered. The reason why eberle is scoring more is because he has the puck more. Barzal is the primary puck carrier when he's on barzal's line so he plays a different game, he was still very effective but now eberle is able to drive his own line, which he has been doing. Eberle is a high end 2nd liner, average 1st line winger.

Yea I agree i wouldnt mind bailey getting benched for a game. those lines are what I would do until further notice (after Bailey's benching) I'm not a Bailey hater at all, but if Beau is healthy someones gotta come out, and I guess you gotta reward Leo for his game last night.

yeah pretty much how I feel. I don't hate Bailey, but he has been trash this year....taking out wahlstrom or MDC doesn't send a good message to the team IMO.

I love Bailey yeah, but he's just been so bad this year and it's hard to put a finger on why, especially after his really strong showing in the playoffs.

Iirc the Nelson line had some pretty bad underlying numbers, they were just converting on their chances. Strong showing by bailey for sure , but there was definitely luck involved and it wasn’t sustainable - that’s why I wanted to trade him.

If Wahlstrom isn't scoring it's the very definition of struggling especially for a guy touted as incredibly gifted offensive player and what numbers? The numbers that say 1 goal on the score sheet or the guessed numbers like xGF? If he isn't scoring against the weaker checkers in the league. It's pretty much guaranteed he'll have a tougher time against another teams top checkers. Sometimes I think we're watching different games, the Cizikas line was out against the Bergeron line most of the night at least it's the match up Trotz wanted, but with the huge amounts of icing calls last night lines got stuck out there, so there was a chance the Pageau line saw them on more than one occasion.

I'm not trying to discourage your beliefs, if xGF makes you feel better good on you, but to me it's guess work. Anyone can shoot the puck on net, it doesn't mean they'll score X amount of times. Hell Komorov could do it. Does it mean he's a potential 50 goal scorer? Of course it doesn't. All "expected" means is that they feel it should happen, not that it will happen. So it's a guess. It's like saying my arthritis is acting up today so I expect it to snow, it might, it might not, it's not guaranteed because I'm just guessing it'll snow.

I doubt Nelson has played better because of Eberle, it was just a matter time before he started to get in the groove. He had his moments with Bailey on early this season as well and he hasn't found the net with either of them. Maybe when Beau comes back things will be different who knows? And Eberle being able to drive his own line is because teams aren't checking him as hard, it doesn't matter if Barzal carries the puck more. He gets just as many scoring opportunities. He just struggles against another teams top checkers, which is why he should be on the 2nd line, at least he's scoring there.

I know you're a Eberle fan and that's fine, but in my opinion. He's a 2nd line winger, and emergency 1st line winger, or until Lou actually does something about it, their first line winger. It's the one missing piece that'll put this team over the top.

No it's not. It's more important that he's generating a ton of quality chances on his own. Expected goals is the best measure of future scoring ability so regression to the mean will happen soon. You're wrong, cizikas only had 2:07 ice time against Bergeron, wahlstrom had 4:13 of ice time against Bergeron. That's a pretty big difference. Wahlstrom's skillset is not meant for the 3rd line, he is playing with a fringe NHLer in komarov and pageau as good as he is defensively, is still a grinder who doesn't have much creativity in the offensive zone. Despite that wahlstrom is still carrying that line offensively. Maybe Trotz should start putting prospects in a position to succeed with players that cater to their skillsets instead of making them to adapt to a grinders role. Wahlstrom faced tougher competition than barzal last night, putting him with barzal would make it easier role, not a more difficult one.

The expected goal value of a non-blocked shot is a value given to that shot based on the probability of that shot turning into a goal (multiple variables are taken into account like distance, type of shot). Yes anyone can shoot the puck on net, that does mean that it will increase their XGF%. Leo is a career negative in that metric. Actually expected goals% is the best predictor of future performance - Tampa Bay goes after players who have a high expected goals % , there's a reason why their director of analytics got his name on the cup. He is a big reason why they won.

Like I said before, Nelsons line has been getting the top matchups, not Barzal. Nelson's line is the 1st line. Barzal's line was matched up against boston's 4th line (who aren't very good) meanwhile eberle was matched up against Bergeron line and Boston 2nd line, which is centered by David krecji (one of the better defensive minded centers in the league). So eberle is actually producing against the toughest competition.

Dude, you're throwing a bunch of what ifs out there and trying to pass them off as fact. They aren't facts it doesn't matter if it's a full moon out that night, above freezing and the puck was angled slightly to the right, while they were playing banjo in the background while he took the shot. A shot is a shot and it only counts if it goes in the back of the net that's the only stat that matters. Did he score.

Expected is what some guy with a spread sheet thinks should happen, not what will happen. xGF is not guaranteed to happen. Why do you think so many high draft picks bomb and so many low draft picks that are over looked shine, it's because the stat is nothing more than a guide line. It's not meant to be taken literally. Many factors that the metrics don't show could figure in to those numbers. Is he going through personal problems, is his wife cheating on him , is he getting divorced? Maybe a family member is dying or sick, maybe he's playing through an injury that the public doesn't know about. My point is the numbers are a guide line.

As I said, I'm not trying to change your belief system. If believing in stats like xGF makes you feel good, have at it. It's really no concern of mine what you base your love of the game on. We both love the Islanders even if we don't see eye to eye on other things. Anyways, have a good one man.

You're basically contradicting yourself by saying dont value xGF because things in his personal life could be affecting their play and would skew those numbers, as if the same factors wouldnt skew the numbers you value. I'm not saying you should value one more or the other, but if player A scores 30 goals and 12 of them are empty netters and Player B scores 22 goals and creates a lot of high danger chances, which player do you want?

You can think what you want but The last two cup winners let metrics like xGF dictate their personnel decisions. XGF is the best predictor of future success, that is proven. You don’t have to like advanced stats, but there’s a reason why the most successful teams in the league are heavily invested in analytics.

I'd prefer the 22 goals obviously, but using your logic what if he was predicted to score 30 goals and only scored 12, which would be more realistic?



I will think what I want, and my thoughts are you don't know how these teams analyze their players. And even if they did use advanced metrics it's likely as a guideline and more to it than, Oh look it says on the spread sheet, according to xGF, Player X should score close to 50 this year.