Not much room for healthy scratches. With 82 games from Jan - April (not including playoffs), teams will need a full roster (including 3 healthy scratches).

Seems unlikely that the Caps will be able to commit $11.5mm to free agents this offseason, especially on contracts with term, even with shedding Hagelin & Panik. Too much uncertainty about the salary cap in the future, plus have Ovechkin and Vrana coming up next year. The King is a lock, and I could maybe see Galchenyuk - Duclair and Vatanen seem like a stretch, to me.

Generally agree. And yet, if they can add a defenseman who plays 22 minutes a night that also helps out with lightening everybody's workload. Duclair at 3M would be unreal. (edit: whoa. and I missed Galchenyuk at 2M? Fantastic!!!)

Teams would be lucky to pick up Hagelin and Panik for free, too. Both great penalty killers with underrated offense. Panik got 20 points in the last 36 games of the season, a 45 point pace. Hagelin played the whole year on a steady 35 point pace. Both signed cheap to play on a contender. Any team would be lucky to have either.

Duclair vs. Galchenyuk is an interesting proposition - given the choice, I'll take Galchenyuk. A little more versatile, and if we're looking at regression toward the mean for these players' careers, Galchenyuk has the better chance to trend in the right direction. I just don't trust one season of Duclair playing at 0.15 PPG above average for a $3mm contract that we might need for other things.

Despite what happened in the playoffs, offense wasn't the problem for the Caps last year, either. I think shipping off both Panik & Hagelin would be a mistake. Perhaps a combo of these moves is best (i.e. keep one defensive forward and add one scoring forward)?

Good analysis. And I agree that Galchenyuk had an off year and could easily bounce back, especially with the kind of linemates Washington could give him. Asking Duclair to play a checking role would bring him back to his regular point totals, and he doesn't have the PK experience of Panik or Hagelin, so anywhere over 3M would be silly.

I still think Namestnikov and Ceci could be good fits with this team, and available at low prices, maybe 2.75M and either 700x1 or 1.0x2, respectively?

Yeah, Namestnikov is really difficult to peg in terms of value. He's two years removed from a 20g season, and put up 17 this year, but at a career S% pace that also screams "regression". Definitely will come down from his last AAV but hard to say how much, because teams sometimes ignore analytics in favor of total production in free agency. If he could be had for $2-$2.5mm, then I think it could be a good investment to have somebody to move around the middle 6. If he gets priced out, though, have to walk away - I really feel like cap space is the prized asset these days. And who knows how agents are going to handle guys that are in weird contract situations without really knowing what's going to happen with the cap in the next few years. We could see a lot of 1-2 year deals with AAVs that would otherwise be confusing.

As far as Ceci - I'm a little ambivalent on him but yes, the theory is definitely there. Ceci, Bogosian, Hamonic - that style of defenseman is who they need. Physical, defensive-minded, can move between 2-3rd pairing, and $1.5mm or less. Maybe stretch it to $1.75mm for a guy like Bogosian who will likely command a raise after his playoff run (but that might price him out for WSH).

Edit: just to be clear, I'm not saying Hamonic can be had for $1.5mm - that was more a comment on his style of play. WSH is likely not in on him.

Yeah, there's no telling how many teams are really cutting costs this year, vs. how many were just saving cap space for free agency. I guess we'll know more in a few hours. I could see Namestnikov moving above a middle six role if his faceoffs, back-checking, and Russian language ability make him a good fit with a couple of Russian-speaking top-six players who are a bit lacking in faceoffs and back-checking sometimes. Definitely agree that a lot of teams might be more comfortable with one year contracts than two year deals, WSH among them, with three big extensions next year.

Maybe they not suck again this year?

Precisely. If Vlad goes expensive, I hope they'll at least take a flyer on Zykov, because there's no way that top line doesn't get better when they start planning plays in Russian.

Oh, and for those of us keeping score at home, this puts a wrinkle in everything: https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/380010