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MK57

MK57
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20 juin 2018
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Capitals de Washington
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Forum: Armchair-GM15 oct. 2020 à 12 h 23
Sujet: Tatar Tots
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Eli</b></div><div>Yeah, Hagelin, Panik, and Jensen helped the Caps' penalty kill improve from bottom ten to top ten. They're really good at that. But Tatar adds a tiny bit more secondary scoring than Panik? I don't know. I agree it's a high bid. But clearly Habs fans don't. Which is funny because Tatar was a literal cap dump in a trade of Suzuki for Galchenyuk. But what can you do?</div></div>

Yeah I mean, don't get me wrong, he'd be a great add for the 3rd line that had minimal offensive impact last year, but I worry that %xGF &lt; %xGA and we still have a net loss. And yeah, can' t make everyone happy. I mean there was a Montreal fan that had Gallagher at 7x$14mm yesterday before the contract was announced so you can take what they say with a grain of salt...
Forum: Armchair-GM14 oct. 2020 à 14 h 20
Sujet: 20-21 lineup projections
In my opinion, you can remove Fehervary, Hagelin, and Panik from this equation - it comes down to whether you want 2 years of Siegenthaler at $1-1.25mm or if you want 3 years of Jensen at $2.5mm. The defense is (somehow? finally?) becoming a crowded place and there is really only room for one of them on the roster this year. So, do you prefer to have Siegenthaler, the defensive defenseman for 2 years at a team friendly AAV, knowing that he has already played top-pair duties and may very well price himself out of WSH in the offseason of 2022? Or do you want to have Jensen, the boom-or-bust guy who, on his best days, can play a solid two-way game and chip in offensively more than Siegenthaler? Laviolette will have some influence here and he may very well prefer Jensen in his system. Plus, you know what you have financially through 2023 with an unstable salary cap situation and you have somebody you can openly expose to the expansion draft or would be a relatively cheap buyout candidate if he can't be traded.

The Hagelin/Panik question is separate, to me. They could certainly look to move one of those guys (even for pennies on the dollar, if they really feel they need the room), but that is making space for forwards. It would be an 8-man blueline rotation if they wanted to keep Fehervary in the NHL, which I agree they will, especially with Laviolette in charge.

Edit: I should also mention that I think Kempny is probably done in the NHL, or at least with the Capitals. Too many injuries, too many strong LHD prospects coming in the next year or two. He filled a great need for WSH from 17-19, but that was all he could give. Cheap trade, buyout, or even retirement are all on the table, I think.
Forum: Armchair-GM13 oct. 2020 à 11 h 57
Sujet: Could this team win another cup
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Eli</b></div><div>Carlson has led NHL defensemen in points for a two seasons, and one postseason, while paired mostly with Kempny. Hedman has finished 2nd in points in two postseasons, while playing with some guys who some people might say are better than Kempny. I dunno... Kempny? Stralman? Segachev? Who ya got?</div></div>

Sure, that's a fair point. Could probably pick and choose metrics to make a case for any of the three. I'd take Sergachev out because he's not asked to do the same types of things Kempny or Stralman are asked to do, at a broad level. A little tough to compare the situations because the last time Stralman played a full season in TB was 17-18; Kempny only has one full season in WSH under his belt (18-19). Comparing those seasons, I'd say it was Kempny by a long shot on both sides of the ice. Over the course of their career? Smell test probably says Stralman.

Seems like mostly a question of "what have you done for me lately" - Carlson has been better, more recently (so has Kempny, I'd argue). Hedman actually has more playoff points in fewer career games (again, basically negligible) and has been more consistent over his career, in my opinion.

And now I've been stat-diving for so long I don't even remember why I commented on this in the first place.
Forum: Armchair-GM9 oct. 2020 à 11 h 37
Sujet: How today will go
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Eli</b></div><div>Good analysis. And I agree that Galchenyuk had an off year and could easily bounce back, especially with the kind of linemates Washington could give him. Asking Duclair to play a checking role would bring him back to his regular point totals, and he doesn't have the PK experience of Panik or Hagelin, so anywhere over 3M would be silly.

I still think Namestnikov and Ceci could be good fits with this team, and available at low prices, maybe 2.75M and either 700x1 or 1.0x2, respectively?</div></div>

Yeah, Namestnikov is really difficult to peg in terms of value. He's two years removed from a 20g season, and put up 17 this year, but at a career S% pace that also screams "regression". Definitely will come down from his last AAV but hard to say how much, because teams sometimes ignore analytics in favor of total production in free agency. If he could be had for $2-$2.5mm, then I think it could be a good investment to have somebody to move around the middle 6. If he gets priced out, though, have to walk away - I really feel like cap space is the prized asset these days. And who knows how agents are going to handle guys that are in weird contract situations without really knowing what's going to happen with the cap in the next few years. We could see a lot of 1-2 year deals with AAVs that would otherwise be confusing.

As far as Ceci - I'm a little ambivalent on him but yes, the theory is definitely there. Ceci, Bogosian, Hamonic - that style of defenseman is who they need. Physical, defensive-minded, can move between 2-3rd pairing, and $1.5mm or less. Maybe stretch it to $1.75mm for a guy like Bogosian who will likely command a raise after his playoff run (but that might price him out for WSH).

Edit: just to be clear, I'm not saying Hamonic can be had for $1.5mm - that was more a comment on his style of play. WSH is likely not in on him.
Forum: Armchair-GM9 oct. 2020 à 10 h 56
Sujet: How today will go
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Eli</b></div><div>Generally agree. And yet, if they can add a defenseman who plays 22 minutes a night that also helps out with lightening everybody's workload. Duclair at 3M would be unreal. (edit: whoa. and I missed Galchenyuk at 2M? Fantastic!!!)

Teams would be lucky to pick up Hagelin and Panik for free, too. Both great penalty killers with underrated offense. Panik got 20 points in the last 36 games of the season, a 45 point pace. Hagelin played the whole year on a steady 35 point pace. Both signed cheap to play on a contender. Any team would be lucky to have either.</div></div>

Duclair vs. Galchenyuk is an interesting proposition - given the choice, I'll take Galchenyuk. A little more versatile, and if we're looking at regression toward the mean for these players' careers, Galchenyuk has the better chance to trend in the right direction. I just don't trust one season of Duclair playing at 0.15 PPG above average for a $3mm contract that we might need for other things.

Despite what happened in the playoffs, offense wasn't the problem for the Caps last year, either. I think shipping off both Panik &amp; Hagelin would be a mistake. Perhaps a combo of these moves is best (i.e. keep one defensive forward and add one scoring forward)?