Moving Kerfoot, Engvall, Holl, and Johnsson in these respective deals is really just about opening up salary cap space. The draft pick return could be slightly less than this and the teams receiving the Leafs' outgoing players could be different, it's just about the cap space here.
Buffalo/Staal Trade
It was reported that Sabres' ownership may force the front office to operate under an internal cap next season. This was partly why they moved Johnasson and the remaining years on his deal for an older Staal, who's contract expires at the end of the season.
Given that it seems unlikely Staal would re-sign with the Sabres, they would benefit by acquiring two mid round picks and saving an additional $1.625 million. Staal at $1.625M would fit extremely well for Toronto at the 3C spot and would be worth the outgoing draft capital.
If Staal is not possible, Toronto should pursue another option similar to this idea.
Arizona Trade
This is obviously the blockbuster of this projection, but I also don't think it's all that unrealistic.
Arizona, who like Buffalo could also be operating under an internal cap for next season, wouldn't seem to have an overly bright future given what the current roster looks like. Ekman-Larsson is in the rumour mill every year, they lack dynamic fowards outside of Keller, and to boot they are missing several early round draft picks as a result of the Chayka/CHL testing fiasco.
In this deal, Arizona would receive the 15th overall pick in a draft that is widely considered to be one of the deepest in recent years. Yaroslav Askarov, Braden Schnieder, and Dawson Mercer are just a few coveted prospects who could be available in that spot.
In addition to the 15th overall pick, Arizona would receive a recent first-round project with uptapped potential in Dermott, as well as Johnsson, a useful middle-six spark plug type who provides secondary offense.
Lastly, Arizona receives Andersen, who's contract features less 'real money' than Kuempers ($3.5M v $1M for Andersen). If you look at the numbers for these two goalies over the past 3 years, they're very similar, so for the Coyotes to add assets as valuable as the 15th overall pick and two under 26 NHLers, it seems worth the marginal difference between the two net-minders. If things don't work out for Arizona (which they likely won't, given their roster that I mentioned above, they could eventually flip Andersen at the trade deadline, gathering further draft picks.
Given the marginal difference between Kuemper and Andersen I mentioned above, Toronto would obviously need more incentive to include the 15th overall pick and to a lesser degree Dermott and Johnsson.
This is where Hjalmarsson comes in. At 33 years old, Hjalmarsson is still an effective defensive blue-liner who consistently produces excellent underlying metrics. With just one year remaining on his deal, Arizona either has to re-sign him or risk losing him for nothing after next year. They could do much worse than including him in a deal for a good draft pick and a project blue-liner like Dermott.
Free Agents
Pietranglelo: It has been reported over the last week that the Blues front office will not offer Pietrangelo a deal with 'heavy bonuses'. Players are reportedly in search of these big bonuses due to the financial uncertainty surrounding next year and COVID. Toronto undoubtedly possesses an advantage in this regard becausee despite the financial fallout from COVID, MLSE prints money and should have no problem coughing up the bonus money required to bring a game changing blue-liner to a team that desparately needs one. As a very secondary note, Tavares and Pietrangelo are good friends going back to their teenage years, so perhaps Tavares' account of playing in Toronto could help persuade Pietrangelo to come.
By signing Pietrangelo to a group that already has Rielly and Muzzin, a position that was a weakness for Toronto would suddenly be a strength.
Simmonds:
Whether it's Toronto or another team, it is unreasonable to expect Simmonds to regain his +60 point offensive production. What is reasonable to expect, is being a physical contributor who can pot 15-18 goals. After four consecutive seasons with a playoff series win, it's more than fair to suggest at this point Toronto has sufficient firepower offensively and would be well served adding a different element to their bottom six forward group. Simmonds would provide that. If Simmond is not possible, Toronto could explore another similar option such as Patrick Maroon. Maroon lacks the offensive skills Simmonds could provide, but offers more durability at a potentially cheaper price.
RFA Signings
Ilya Mikheyev
Mikheyev missed a large part of the year with a serious wrist tendon injury. Despite this, he performed well during his brief stint and deserves a small raise from where he came in last year. $1.2M seems about right on a one year deal.
Evan Rodrigues
Rodriguez is a bit of a wild card but with strong underlying defensive metrics he could fill a useful bottom six role, if he's willing to accept a $900K deal.
Other Additions
Alex Barabanov, Mikko Lehtonen
Barabanov, who signed this past summer, represents another KHL lottery ticket, similar to Mikheyev last year. He may settle into a middle six RW role, but starting him on the 4th line is more of an ideal spot.
At 26 years old, Lehtonen is not your traditional rookie. His two-way game would fit better on Toronto's back end than the one dimensonal contributions of Martin Marincin or to a lesser degree Dermott and Holl. I think Lehtonen is more likely to make the roster than Toronto's top d prospect Timothy Liljegren. I say this because putting both Sandin and Liljegren on the roster would mean 1/3rd of the Leafs blueline would be rookies. I don't know if that's a viable choice for Dubas and Keefe, although I still like Liljegren's long-term potential.
21 is fine, but I agree 20 is tough. This projection sort of assumes that the Leafs would be using IR for small ailments that otherwise might just be day-to-day.
Removing Simmonds for two forwards with salaries totaling $2M or less would be the only workaround in that regard.
Lol the sabres finally acquire a 2nd line center and you think we are going to trade him before he hits the ice for us and retain 50% of his salary. Not it would not benefit us be trading him lol
First this is a pipe dream you can’t play with a 20 man roster
The Yotes decline there not retaining money in a trade, there trying to reduce salaries so you send them a RFA and a overpaid Johnasson the first rounder they want the rest they don’t.
Between retain salary resigning Dermott plus Johnsson and Freddy money that’s 8mil in salary while moving out 6mil in salary big no from the yotes
This projection sort of assumes that the Leafs would be using IR for small ailments that otherwise might just be day-to-day. Regardless, removing Simmonds for two forwards with salaries totaling $2M or less would be an obvious workaround in that regard.
Yes, Arizona is taking on a slight salary increase here, but they're also acquiring a valuable draft pick and two NHL quality players who are seven years or more younger than Hjalmarsson.
Given Arizona's prospect/draft capital (or lack thereof) and it's less than promising future, taking on $2M in salary would be worth it if they're able to add the aforementioned assets. They could easily move a smaller contract in another trade if the additional $2M is unwanted.
Lol the sabres finally acquire a 2nd line center and you think we are going to trade him before he hits the ice for us and retain 50% of his salary. Not it would not benefit us be trading him lol
Sabres are a lot more than a second line C away from being competitive. So I mean you can lose him for nothing next summer, or you can get draft picks for him now.
I'd also argue he's better as a 3C than a 2C at this point in his career.
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