Forums/Armchair-GM

StevieYShouldListen

Créé par: Alaskan_RedWing
Date de création initiale: sep 7, 2020
Publié: 7 sep 2020 à 12 h 43
Équipe: 2020-21 Red Wings de Detroit
Explications
RFA signings based on Evolving Hockey Contract Projections which have been fair
Signatures de joueurs autonomes
RFAANSCAP HIT
Mantha, Anthony46 500 000 $
Bertuzzi, Tyler45 200 000 $
Ehn, Christoffer1750 000 $
Hirose, Taro1850 000 $
UFAANSCAP HIT
Howard, Jimmy1750 000 $
Transactions
DET
  1. Eriksson, Loui
  2. 2022 1e round pick (VAN)
  3. 2021 2e round pick (VAN)
VAN
  1. Barton, Seth [Liste de réserve]
DET
  1. Ladd, Andrew
  2. 2021 1e round pick (NYI)
  3. 2022 2e round pick (NYI)
NYI
  1. 2022 6e round pick (DET)
DET
  1. Turris, Kyle
  2. 2020 1e round pick (NSH)
NSH
  1. Ehn, Christoffer
DET
  1. Johnson, Tyler
  2. 2022 2e round pick (TBL)
TBL
  1. Wood, Kyle [Droits de RFA]
  2. 2020 6e round pick (DET)
Rachats de contrats
  • Stephen Weiss: 1 666 667 $
  • Frans Nielsen: 3 416 667 $
  • Loui Eriksson: 5 666 667 $
Transactions impliquant une retenue de salaire
  • David Savard: 1 062 500 $ (25%)
  • Richard Pánik: 1 375 000 $ (50%)
  • Patrik Nemeth: 1 500 000 $ (50%)
Enfoui
  • Andrew Ladd: 4 425 000 $ (5 500 000 $)
ANNÉE DE REPÊCHAGERONDE 1RONDE 2RONDE 3RONDE 4RONDE 5RONDE 6RONDE 7
2020
DET
NSH
DET
EDM
WSH
DET
SJS
EDM
DET
DET
2021
DET
NYI
DET
EDM
VAN
DET
VGK
DET
DET
DET
DET
2022
DET
VAN
DET
NYI
TBL
DET
DET
DET
DET
TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS BONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
2581 500 000 $80 717 457 $0 $2 360 000 $782 543 $

Formation

Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
DET
Bertuzzi, Tyler
5 200 000 $
AG, AD
RFA - 1
DET
Larkin, Dylan
6 100 000 $
C, AG
UFA - 3
DET
Mantha, Anthony
6 500 000 $
AD, AG
UFA - 4
DET
Fabbri, Robby
2 950 000 $
AG, C
UFA - 2
NSH
Turris, Kyle
6 000 000 $
C
UFA - 4
DET
Zadina, Filip
894 167 $
AG, AD
RFA - 2
DET
Helm, Darren
3 850 000 $
C, AG, AD
UFA - 1
NSH
Turris, Kyle
1 650 000 $
C
UFA - 2
DET
Bromé, Mathias
925 000 $
AG, AD
RFA - 1
DET
Svechnikov, Evgeny
874 125 $
AG
RFA - 1
TBL
Johnson, Tyler
5 000 000 $
AD, C
NTC
UFA - 4
DET
Filppula, Valtteri
3 000 000 $
C, AG
NTC
UFA - 1
DET
Glendening, Luke
1 800 000 $
C, AD, AG
UFA - 1
Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
DET
DeKeyser, Danny
5 000 000 $
DG
NTC
UFA - 2
DET
Hronek, Filip
714 166 $
DD
RFA - 1
DET
Bernier, Jonathan
3 000 000 $
G
UFA - 1
DET
Nemeth, Patrik
1 500 000 $
DG
UFA - 1
DET
Seider, Moritz
894 167 $
DD
RFA - 4
DET
Howard, Jimmy
750 000 $
G
UFA
DET
Cholowski, Dennis
894 166 $
DG
RFA - 1
DET
Biega, Alex
875 000 $
DD
UFA - 1
Laissés de côtéListe des blessés (IR)Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
DET
Lindström, Gustav
775 833 $
DD
RFA - 1
DET
Zetterberg, Henrik
6 083 333 $
C
UFA - 1
DET
Rasmussen, Michael
894 166 $
AG, C, AD
RFA - 1
DET
Hirose, Taro
850 000 $
AG
UFA - 1
DET
Smith, Givani
714 166 $
AG
RFA - 1

Unités spéciales

Avantage numérique 1
Bertuzzi, T.
Larkin, D.
Zadina, F.
Hronek, F.
Mantha, A.
Avantage numérique 2
Fabbri, R.
Glendening, L.
Bromé, M.
Cholowski, D.
Turris, K.
Infériorité numérique 1
Helm, D.
Larkin, D.
DeKeyser, D.
Hronek, F.
Infériorité numérique 2
Filppula, V.
, .
Nemeth, P.
Biega, A.

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7 sep 2020 à 12 h 44
#1
Oilers GM
Rejoint: avr 2020
Messages: 1,560
Mentions "j'aime": 566
Glendening is negative value. Oilers decline
Alaskan_RedWing a aimé ceci.
7 sep 2020 à 12 h 46
#2
Rejoint: aoû 2020
Messages: 1,242
Mentions "j'aime": 379
Tyler johnson has value
7 sep 2020 à 12 h 52
#3
Démarrer sujet
Red Wings
Rejoint: sep 2020
Messages: 29
Mentions "j'aime": 15
Modifié 7 sep 2020 à 13 h 00
Quoting: etpeck
Tyler johnson has value


Johnson has value no doubt, but not $5 million for 4 years value with 31 points. His points have declined for the past 3 years and his xGAR is significantly decreasing. Dump that salary and find a much better 3rd line center for less.

EDIT: Tyler Johnson has the same GAR as Loui Ericsson, so I would assume this is a good deal for Tampa considering the likelihood Loui Ericsson is worth more than a 1st round pick for his salary dump and Tyler Johnson has a longer term contract.
7 sep 2020 à 12 h 53
#4
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Red Wings
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Messages: 29
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Quoting: ken_holland
Glendening is negative value. Oilers decline


Has more value than Pool Party sitting over in Finland and refusing to play for EDM
7 sep 2020 à 13 h 04
#5
Oilers GM
Rejoint: avr 2020
Messages: 1,560
Mentions "j'aime": 566
Quoting: Alaskan_RedWing
Has more value than Pool Party sitting over in Finland and refusing to play for EDM


actually, no.

Glendening has a -$300,000 market value

And Pujlujarvi is all but confirmed to sign with Edmonton
7 sep 2020 à 13 h 10
#6
Démarrer sujet
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Messages: 29
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Quoting: ken_holland
actually, no.

Glendening has a -$300,000 market value

And Pujlujarvi is all but confirmed to sign with Edmonton


Quoting: ken_holland
actually, no.

Glendening has a -$300,000 market value

And Pujlujarvi is all but confirmed to sign with Edmonton


All but confirmed? Would love to see that source
RedWing9119 a aimé ceci.
7 sep 2020 à 13 h 18
#7
Oilers GM
Rejoint: avr 2020
Messages: 1,560
Mentions "j'aime": 566
Quoting: Alaskan_RedWing
All but confirmed? Would love to see that source


"After contacting both sides, our conclusion is we expect Puljujarvi to sign an NHL contract and return for Oilers training camp in the fall." - Mark Spector
Alaskan_RedWing a aimé ceci.
7 sep 2020 à 13 h 19
#8
Rejoint: jui 2019
Messages: 819
Mentions "j'aime": 203
Tampa quickly declines. First, while Johnson will likely be asked to waive his ntc, Detroit will very, very likely not be a team he's willing to go to. Secondly, his value is more than a cap dump, as he is a player averaging 47.33 points a year his last 3 before this year. While this year has been down for his standards, his reduced ice time has certainly played a role in that. He is a .6 ppg player over his career, so his 5 million price tag is not overpaid. If he does agree to be traded somewhere, yes Tampa will be restricted in the number of teams they can work with, but Johnson should still return in the range of a 2nd or 3rd. He gets a better role in a location of his choice and avoids having to submit a 20 team trade list after next season. Finally, if he and his new team aren't a fit or they want to flip him for value after a good year or expose him to Seattle to protect other players deemed more important, then that option would still be open after next season. Tampa won't be adding sweeteners and giving him away for nothing.
7 sep 2020 à 13 h 24
#9
Lets go Preds
Rejoint: mai 2019
Messages: 787
Mentions "j'aime": 247
Nashville WILL NOT give the 11th pick to dump Turris!!
Alaskan_RedWing a aimé ceci.
7 sep 2020 à 13 h 25
#10
Rejoint: fév 2020
Messages: 699
Mentions "j'aime": 190
Modifié 7 sep 2020 à 13 h 31
Quoting: Alaskan_RedWing
Johnson has value no doubt, but not $5 million for 4 years value with 31 points. His points have declined for the past 3 years and his xGAR is significantly decreasing. Dump that salary and find a much better 3rd line center for less.


lol stfu Tyler had a down year Plus he had 15:33 time on ice per game for a guy who scores around 50 point in a full 82 game season,
7 sep 2020 à 13 h 35
#11
Démarrer sujet
Red Wings
Rejoint: sep 2020
Messages: 29
Mentions "j'aime": 15
Quoting: JTBF81
Tampa quickly declines. First, while Johnson will likely be asked to waive his ntc, Detroit will very, very likely not be a team he's willing to go to. Secondly, his value is more than a cap dump, as he is a player averaging 47.33 points a year his last 3 before this year. While this year has been down for his standards, his reduced ice time has certainly played a role in that. He is a .6 ppg player over his career, so his 5 million price tag is not overpaid. If he does agree to be traded somewhere, yes Tampa will be restricted in the number of teams they can work with, but Johnson should still return in the range of a 2nd or 3rd. He gets a better role in a location of his choice and avoids having to submit a 20 team trade list after next season. Finally, if he and his new team aren't a fit or they want to flip him for value after a good year or expose him to Seattle to protect other players deemed more important, then that option would still be open after next season. Tampa won't be adding sweeteners and giving him away for nothing.


As mentioned previously, I have no problem with TBL fans loving Tyler Johnson, but the reality is that he has no value for the size and length of his contract. TBL have better young players that are significantly cheaper or could go acquire better players for less and shorter terms. From an unbiased standpoint his xGAR, GAR and SPAR are poor, on par with the likes of Loui Ericsson, Joe Thorton and worse than Patrick Nemeth and Zach Bogosian. Tampa is in a win-now mode and continuing to pay Johnson for 4 more years would be a mistake, better off to move him instead of paying $5 million per year for a Replacement level forward.
RedWing9119 a aimé ceci.
7 sep 2020 à 13 h 36
#12
Démarrer sujet
Red Wings
Rejoint: sep 2020
Messages: 29
Mentions "j'aime": 15
Quoting: VastBluepuppy424
lol stfu Tyler had a down year Plus he had 15:33 time on ice per game for a guy who scores around 50 point in a full 82 game season,


classy, see my post above about the value of Tyler Johnson
7 sep 2020 à 13 h 40
#13
Rejoint: sep 2020
Messages: 257
Mentions "j'aime": 46
VAN declines
7 sep 2020 à 13 h 44
#14
Démarrer sujet
Red Wings
Rejoint: sep 2020
Messages: 29
Mentions "j'aime": 15
Quoting: GeauxPreds1
Nashville WILL NOT give the 11th pick to dump Turris!!


Kyle Turris, and I do not say this in a hyperbolic manner, has one of the worst contracts in the NHL by a large margin. Even Loui Ericsson and Milan Lucic are statistically better values according to SPAR (See Evolving Hockey). Now compound that with the fact it is quite long (4 more years) makes it nearly impossible to move. I doubt any team would ever touch his contract, but DET might because Illitch's don't mind spending money. You could buy turris out for a $2 million hit over 10 years! People seem to forget the NHL cap will be steady for the next 2 years, sorry but if you want to get rid of these awful contracts, it is going to cost a lot.
RedWing9119 a aimé ceci.
7 sep 2020 à 13 h 48
#15
Rejoint: mai 2018
Messages: 1,051
Mentions "j'aime": 600
Quoting: GeauxPreds1
Nashville WILL NOT give the 11th pick to dump Turris!!


Then you wont dump Turris. Good luck with that...
Alaskan_RedWing a aimé ceci.
7 sep 2020 à 13 h 51
#16
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Quoting: RedWing9119
Then you wont dump Turris. Good luck with that...


The worst contract in the NHL and Preds fans think they deserve assets for him. It makes no sense from an objective point of view
RedWing9119 a aimé ceci.
7 sep 2020 à 13 h 52
#17
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Rejoint: sep 2020
Messages: 29
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Quoting: TowelPower
VAN declines


Quoting: ken_holland
"After contacting both sides, our conclusion is we expect Puljujarvi to sign an NHL contract and return for Oilers training camp in the fall." - Mark Spector


Removed the trade, I hope you are right cause I like Holland and think if anyone could get it done, it would be him.
ken_holland a aimé ceci.
7 sep 2020 à 13 h 54
#18
Démarrer sujet
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Rejoint: sep 2020
Messages: 29
Mentions "j'aime": 15
Quoting: TowelPower
VAN declines


It is either a first-round pick or Demko/DiPeatro for that atrocious contract that DET will likely have to buyout or bury in the minors. Figured 1st Round pick would be better considering VAN's pick will likely be late in the first round next year.
7 sep 2020 à 13 h 56
#19
Rejoint: sep 2020
Messages: 257
Mentions "j'aime": 46
Quoting: Alaskan_RedWing
It is either a first-round pick or Demko/DiPeatro for that atrocious contract that DET will likely have to buyout or bury in the minors. Figured 1st Round pick would be better considering VAN's pick will likely be late in the first round next year.


Yeah VAN is not going to trade Demko just for the sake of dumping Erikkson's contract. The Canucks can still afford to resign a couple of their UFAs/RFAs and have Erikkson.
Alaskan_RedWing a aimé ceci.
7 sep 2020 à 14 h 26
#20
Lets go Preds
Rejoint: mai 2019
Messages: 787
Mentions "j'aime": 247
Quoting: RedWing9119
Then you wont dump Turris. Good luck with that...


Here’s the thing Nashville doesn’t have to move Turris they aren’t in cap trouble. When hynes took over and he started giving Turris the minutes he needed his point production started improving have 13 points in 23 games. He was in the 4th line the majority of the season. How many 4th line players do you know that can put up a lot of points playing 4th line minutes and with 4th line players. I’m not saying Turris still has value where we can get something for him but asking for the 11th pick isn’t going to happen because we really don’t have to get rid of him because of cap
7 sep 2020 à 14 h 52
#21
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Rejoint: sep 2020
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Quoting: GeauxPreds1
Here’s the thing Nashville doesn’t have to move Turris they aren’t in cap trouble. When hynes took over and he started giving Turris the minutes he needed his point production started improving have 13 points in 23 games. He was in the 4th line the majority of the season. How many 4th line players do you know that can put up a lot of points playing 4th line minutes and with 4th line players. I’m not saying Turris still has value where we can get something for him but asking for the 11th pick isn’t going to happen because we really don’t have to get rid of him because of cap


Those are fair points, but you are going to be in a cap crunch real soon. NSH needs to sign 6 players next season with $9.5 in cap space. The next season they need to sign another 5 players (including 2 goalies) with only $12 million in cap space. Good luck doing that and still being competitive. On the other hand if you want to start a rebuild then yeah you are fine, just go sign a bunch of $1-2 million borderline AHL players to sneak under the cap. NSH has $45 million committed over the next 4 years for 7 players, which would have been fine if the cap had not been locked in at $81.5. Now you have more than half of your cap space spent of 7 players, one of which is Kyle Turris who is the oldest of the bunch and playing 3rd and 4th line minutes. Source: https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/predators
7 sep 2020 à 15 h 04
#22
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Quoting: TowelPower
Yeah VAN is not going to trade Demko just for the sake of dumping Erikkson's contract. The Canucks can still afford to resign a couple of their UFAs/RFAs and have Erikkson.


Problem is that VAN is in real trouble right now with the Cap and Expansion draft coming up. For next season your project cap space is $17 million, but you have to resign 5 RFAs, 4 UFAs (1 of which is your very good goaltender in Markstrom). Now based on Evolving-Hockey's contract projections, a conservative guess is that it will take ~$15 million for those 8 FA not including the goalie, which Markstrom will get $4-5 million on the open market. You could let Markstrom walk, but now you are hoping Demko is ready (looks like he is, but who knows). You still have to make a decision on whether you want to protect Demko or DiPietro in the expansion draft, might as well get something out of one of them which for VAN would be getting rid of Ericsson's awful contract. Don't forget you also have to sign Elias Petterson (think $10-12 million a year), Quinn Hughes (A lot) and Thatcher Demko as well the following year.

TLDR; You have a ton of young talent that needs to be signed to very expensive contracts with a flat cap and players like Ericsson and Sven taking up valuable space. DET will take those for a goalie you cannot protect in the Expansion draft or a first-round draft pick.
TowelPower a aimé ceci.
7 sep 2020 à 15 h 11
#23
Rejoint: sep 2020
Messages: 257
Mentions "j'aime": 46
Quoting: Alaskan_RedWing
Problem is that VAN is in real trouble right now with the Cap and Expansion draft coming up. For next season your project cap space is $17 million, but you have to resign 5 RFAs, 4 UFAs (1 of which is your very good goaltender in Markstrom). Now based on Evolving-Hockey's contract projections, a conservative guess is that it will take ~$15 million for those 8 FA not including the goalie, which Markstrom will get $4-5 million on the open market. You could let Markstrom walk, but now you are hoping Demko is ready (looks like he is, but who knows). You still have to make a decision on whether you want to protect Demko or DiPietro in the expansion draft, might as well get something out of one of them which for VAN would be getting rid of Ericsson's awful contract. Don't forget you also have to sign Elias Petterson (think $10-12 million a year), Quinn Hughes (A lot) and Thatcher Demko as well the following year.

TLDR; You have a ton of young talent that needs to be signed to very expensive contracts with a flat cap and players like Ericsson and Sven taking up valuable space. DET will take those for a goalie you cannot protect in the Expansion draft or a first-round draft pick.


I would expect VAN to resign Marky to 6M without giving him a NTC/NMC.
TT may be resigned at 5M
Tanev might walk as well as Stetcher
Resign Gaudette, Motte, MacEwen to contracts between 1-2M, Gaudette would be slightly higher
Ferland is most likely LTIR

I can see Virtanen being traded in the off season

By the time they need to resign EP and Hughes'. You have Sutter's, Baertschi, Edler, Pearson's contracts that are expired
Alaskan_RedWing a aimé ceci.
7 sep 2020 à 15 h 27
#24
Rejoint: sep 2020
Messages: 257
Mentions "j'aime": 46
Modifié 7 sep 2020 à 15 h 33
Quoting: Alaskan_RedWing
Problem is that VAN is in real trouble right now with the Cap and Expansion draft coming up. For next season your project cap space is $17 million, but you have to resign 5 RFAs, 4 UFAs (1 of which is your very good goaltender in Markstrom). Now based on Evolving-Hockey's contract projections, a conservative guess is that it will take ~$15 million for those 8 FA not including the goalie, which Markstrom will get $4-5 million on the open market. You could let Markstrom walk, but now you are hoping Demko is ready (looks like he is, but who knows). You still have to make a decision on whether you want to protect Demko or DiPietro in the expansion draft, might as well get something out of one of them which for VAN would be getting rid of Ericsson's awful contract. Don't forget you also have to sign Elias Petterson (think $10-12 million a year), Quinn Hughes (A lot) and Thatcher Demko as well the following year.

TLDR; You have a ton of young talent that needs to be signed to very expensive contracts with a flat cap and players like Ericsson and Sven taking up valuable space. DET will take those for a goalie you cannot protect in the Expansion draft or a first-round draft pick.


Mikey D will not be eligible. He is RFA in 2022. Goalies who are RFA in 2020-21 are eligible to be picked
Alaskan_RedWing a aimé ceci.
7 sep 2020 à 15 h 37
#25
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Rejoint: sep 2020
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Quoting: TowelPower
I would expect VAN to resign Marky to 6M without giving him a NTC/NMC.
TT may be resigned at 5M
Tanev might walk as well as Stetcher
Resign Gaudette, Motte, MacEwen to contracts between 1-2M, Gaudette would be slightly higher
Ferland is most likely LTIR

I can see Virtanen being traded in the off season

By the time they need to resign EP and Hughes'. You have Sutter's, Baertschi, Edler, Pearson's contracts that are expired


Good analysis, but I disagree on a couple fronts:

1. Tyler Toffoli is getting $6+ and that is pretty clear based on the market. Evolving Hockey (which has been a little low so far) has him at $6.5, so I would expect $7 tbh.
2. I like Stetcher, but think it is the right move to let him walk if he wants more than $1.5. Tanev walking would be a mistake in my mind but your call.
3. I think Motte goes $1.5, showed how valuable he was in the playoffs and I think he could be an awesome depth player. Gaudette gets $1.3 for 2 years on Evolving Hockey's prediction.
4. I think Ferland tries to play next year, even though he shouldn't but him going on the LTIR would be helpful.
5. Most important disagreement: Even if you lose all those contracts, you are still going to have to sign good players if you want to compete. Yes, you will have $39m in cap space in 2021 when you have to sign Hughes, Pettersson and Demko. Those three players will take up $22 million in cap space and that is a very conservative guess. Now you are spending $64m on 11 players, which is 79% of your cap space and still have to add another 15 roster players with $17m in cap space. That is cap hell to me
 
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