Équipe: 2021-22 Canucks de Vancouver

Date de création initiale: 7 juin 2020

Publié: 8 juin 2020

Mode - plafond salarial: Basique

Assuming continued progression in their counting stat totals, Petey and Hughes will be in pretty elite company when their ELC's expire. I predict a conservative bump in their production for next year, as the supporting cast around them won't really be any better than this year, and could possibly be worse. So who would their comparables be? I looked at other young players signing deals from the last three years to find out, and have capitalized the names of the ones that I think are the closest.

Petterson, 21 = 0.93 p/g in 2018/19, 0.97 p/g in 2019/20 -- 1.01 p/g in 2020/21?
Hughes, 20 = 0.78 p/g in 2019/20 -- 0.8 p/g in 2020/21?

Hischier, 20 = 0.68 p/g, 7.25 mill x 7 years, 8.9% of 2020 cap
POINT, 23 = 1.16 p/g, 6.75 mill x 3 years, 8.3% of 2020 cap
RANTANEN, 22 = 1.18 p/g, 9.25 mill x 6 years, 11.3% of 2020 cap
Laine, 21 = 0.61 p/g, 6.75 mill x 2 years, 8.3% of 2020 cap
TKACHUK, 21 = 0.96 p/g, 7 mill x 3 years, 8.6% of 2020 cap
CHABOT, 22 = 0.79 p/g, 8 mill x 8 years, 9.8% of 2020 cap
Boeser, 22 = 0.81 p/g, 5.875 mill x 3 years, 7.2% of 2020 cap
Konecny, 22 = 0.60 p/g, 5.5 mill x 6 years, 6.7% of 2020 cap
DEBRINCAT, 21 = 0.93 p/g, 6.4 mill x 3 years, 7.9% of 2020 cap
Connor, 22 = 0.80 p/g, 7.143 mill x 7 years, 8.8% of 2020 cap
MARNER, 22 = 1.15 p/g, 10.893 mill x 6 years, 13.4% of 2020 cap
Provorov, 22 = 0.32 p/g, 6.75 mill x 6 years, 8.3% of 2020 cap
Morrissey, 24 = 0.53 p/g, 6.25 mill x 8 years, 7.7% of 2020 cap
Werenski, 22 = 0.54 p/g, 5 mill x 3 years, 6.1% of 2020 cap
Keller, 21 = 0.57 p/g, 7.15 mill x 8 years, 8.8% of 2020 cap
Girard, 21= 0.33 p/g, 5 mill x 7 years, 6.1% of 2020 cap
AHO, 21 = 1.01 p/g, 8.454 mill x 5 years, 10.4% of 2020 cap
Meier, 22 = 0.85 p/g, 6 mill x 4 years, 7.4% of 2020 cap

MATTHEWS, 21 = 1.07 p/g, 11.634 mill x 5 years, 14.6% of 2019 cap
Nylander, 22 = 0.74 p/g, 6.962 mill x 6 years, 8.8% of 2019 cap
Theodore, 23 = 0.48 p/g, 5.2 mill x 7 years, 6.5% of 2019 cap
Larkin, 22 = 0.77 p/g, 6.1 mill x 5 years, 7.7% of 2019 cap
Dumba, 23 = 0.61 p/g, 6 mill x 5 years, 7.5% of 2019 cap

Ehlers, 21 = 0.78 p/g, 6 mill x 7 years, 8% of 2018 cap
EICHEL, 20 = 0.93 p/g, 10 mill x 8 years, 13.3% of 2018 cap
PASTRNAK, 21 = 0.93 p/g, 6.667 mill x 6 years, 8.9% of 2018 cap
DRAISAITL, 21 = 0.94 p/g, 8.5 mill x 8 years, 11.3% of 2018 cap
Horvat, 22 = 0.64 p/g, 5.5 mill x 6 years, 7.3% of 2018 cap
McDavid, 20 = 1.22 p/g, 12.5 mill x 8 years, 16.7% of 2018 cap

Out of this group the only real comparable for Hughes when looking at offensive numbers is Chabot, who I think is an excellent comparable in terms of both ability and his importance to his team. So I gave Hughes the same deal under the same 81.5 mill cap ceiling that Chabot signed under; 8 mill x 8 years. It might be slightly more on the AAV, but it should be close.

For Pettersson there are more comparables statistically, but their salary ranges and terms are pretty different; Point, Rantanen, Tkachuk, DeBrincat, Marner, Aho, Matthews, Eichel, Pastrnak and Draisaitl were all between the .9 and 1.2 points-per-game range the season before they signed their current deals, and as I predicted at the top I expect Petey to finally be just over a point-per-game next season. If the team really wanted to go for an 8 year term I think the best comparable is Eichel, and using the same %-of-cap would put Petey at a 10.8395 AAV. That's really not something the team can afford right now though.

So I think the best course for Petey might be the 3-year bridge deal. It will keep the cap hit lower for now, and extend team control over his rights if he signs a long term deal at the expiry. Plus Myers' deal expires that year as well, providing some extra space. Point, Tkackuk and DeBrincat's bridge deals are the comparables in this term range, with Tkachuk's 7m AAV being the highest of the three. I bumped it slightly higher for Petey; 7.25 mill x 3 years.