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TB Next year no change insight request

Créé par: Tkachinla
Équipe: 2020-21 Lightning de Tampa Bay
Date de création initiale: 28 mars 2020
Publié: 3 mai 2020
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
TB GMs:

I'm interested to see what the projected AAV/term looks like in a realistic scenario for Sergachev, Cirelli, and Cernak to understand how far over the cap the team would be before moving any of Johnson, Gourde, Palat, etc.

Seems fair (based on littlejerryseinfeld's post and other TB fan insights) that Cirelli will ask for and get a $4.5-5M AAV to help him set a floor for his qualifying offer on the next deal), and I don't think TB is going to be able to sign Sergachev for less than his actual fair value given the offer sheet option and 30 other teams being very interested in his services.

Could also see Cernak being open to a cheaper team friendly deal to boost his AAV on the next deal while staying with a perennial Cup contender.

Based on my guesses, it looks like TB could be over the cap by $10M+ before moving anybody out.

Is that close?

+ who is the likely CBO candidate? The Gourde contract looks like a whale unless he's playing in the Top 6 with strong linemates and producing 60 points.

TB GM Insight much appreciated.
Signatures de joueurs autonomes
RFAANSCAP HIT
56 750 000 $
1900 000 $
21 750 000 $
24 850 000 $
Rachats de contrats
Repêchage1e ronde2e ronde3e ronde4e ronde5e ronde6e ronde7e ronde
2020
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2021
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2022
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TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
2181 500 000 $92 100 924 $0 $500 000 $-10 600 924 $
Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
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8 500 000 $8 500 000 $
AG, C
NMC
UFA - 4
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6 750 000 $6 750 000 $
C, AD
UFA - 2
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9 500 000 $9 500 000 $
AD
NMC
UFA - 7
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5 300 000 $5 300 000 $
AG, AD
NTC
UFA - 2
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4 850 000 $4 850 000 $
C, AG
UFA - 3
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5 000 000 $5 000 000 $
AD, C, AG
NTC
UFA - 4
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4 450 000 $4 450 000 $
AD, AG
M-NTC
UFA - 3
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925 000 $925 000 $
C, AG
UFA - 1
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1 800 000 $1 800 000 $
AD, AG
UFA - 1
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900 000 $900 000 $
AG, AD
UFA - 2
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1 650 000 $1 650 000 $
C, AG, AD
UFA - 1
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5 166 666 $5 166 666 $
C, AG, AD
NTC
UFA - 5
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759 258 $759 258 $
AD, AG
UFA - 1
Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
Logo de Lightning de Tampa Bay
7 875 000 $7 875 000 $
DG
NMC
UFA - 5
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6 750 000 $6 750 000 $
DG/DD
UFA - 3
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9 500 000 $9 500 000 $
G
UFA - 8
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6 750 000 $6 750 000 $
DG
NTC
UFA - 6
Logo de Lightning de Tampa Bay
1 750 000 $1 750 000 $
DD
UFA - 3
Logo de Lightning de Tampa Bay
1 300 000 $1 300 000 $
G
UFA - 1
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925 000 $925 000 $ (Bonis de performance500 000 $$500K)
DD
RFA - 1
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1 700 000 $1 700 000 $
DG
NTC
UFA - 1

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3 mai 2020 à 15 h 9
#1
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Mtl could take Gourde for some picks .
2020 2nd (Stl) + 3rd ?
3 mai 2020 à 15 h 53
#2
Bolts92
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To me you use the CBO on Gourde, and deal players like Paquette and Coburn as well as much as fans love the guy you gotta trade Killorn as well just for more relief that way you can bring in either an F/A or have some cap flexibility for a future contract
3 mai 2020 à 16 h 29
#3
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Based on the way Tampa has negotiated with their rfa's during the Yzerman/JBB era, likely scenario is a 3 year bridge for Cirelli and Serg, maybe only 2 for Cernak but 3 is also realistic for him as well. Cirelli in the 4 range, Sergachev in the 4.5 area and Cernak closer to 2. They will likely have to trade Killorn and Paquette, either cbo one of Gourde or Johnson, and then either trade/waive/buyout Coburn. Doing this gives them enough to sign the rfa's and still ice a very good 22 player roster next year. Some will say the #'s are too low on the rfa's, but those ppl don't know Tampa. Cirelli is putting up comparable numbers to what TJ/Killorn/Palat did at the same time in their careers, and so many feel Cirelli will bridge around the same cap % they did, around 5%. I've had Cirelli around 4.25x3 but can see him anywhere from 4 to 4.5. Sergachev at 4.5x3 is about right as well, given what his two closest comparables took on bridges(McAvoy at 4.9 and Werenski at 5). In most cases, Tampa rfa's have taken a little less, so 4.5x3 seems reasonable. I could see him getting a little more, like 4.75, but doubt he goes higher that that. Cernak at 2-2.5 million x 2 or 3 years is also pretty expected. I believe JBB is allotting ~11 million for all 3, with perhaps a little buffer up to 12 max.

I see Tampa rolling something like this next season:
Stamkos-Point-Kucherov
Coleman-Cirelli-Palat
Johnson/Gourde-Stephens-Barre-Boulet/Volkov/Joseph
Maroon-Verhaeghe-Goodrow
One of Volkov/Joseph as the 13th

Hedman-Rutta
McD-Cernak/Foote
Sergachev-Foote/Cernak
Schenn/Bogosian/Gaunce/Masin as depth options

Vasi
McE

There are some things that could change of course, if Tampa tries to keep Killorn by using a cbo on one of Johnson/Gourde and then convincing the other to be traded. Does Maroon come back on a short term deal again, do they trade Cernak in an attempt to keep Shattenkirk(seems doubtful given ages but is a possibility)? Still a few questions but given Tampa's history with contracts and the room they have, this is one idea of how the team could look next year.
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3 mai 2020 à 16 h 39
#4
Cold spaghetti
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I don’t see a way that Cirelli accepts that deal tbh
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3 mai 2020 à 18 h 56
#5
Démarrer sujet
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Quoting: bunzy1034
I don’t see a way that Cirelli accepts that deal tbh


Yeah I totally agree. I just slammed this together and didn't think on that one. Another post suggested a 2-3 year deal at $4.85M to set a floor for his qualifying offer. I've made that change in the post now.
bunzy1034 a aimé ceci.
 
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