Din’t Think Chicago matches because debrincat never signs it.

He was McDavids team mate in junior where he had huge success so if there is one team he might entertain an offer sheet from it may be the Oilers

You're trades aren't great from an Oilers standpoint:

- Klefbom is at least as valuable as Ehlers, if anything it's WPG that adds slightly
- RNH is worth more that Gostisbehere, PHI would need to add

The end result is a worse team: RNH > Ehlers, Klefbom >> Gostisbehere.

The contract you’re offering is too low. After inflation and this year’s group of RFA’s your deal is fair, not an overpay.

RNH has 1 year left on contract at the time, Ghost has 3. What you are saying is true this season but only because RNH had a career year and Ghost had an off year.

Ehlers has more term, Klefbom is injury prone. Pretty sure WPG declines 1for1 straight up

Ghost cannot defend and will always be worth less than a complete player. He can get points but mostly on the power play. He plays 3rd pair in PHI and scores at a similar rate to Matthew Benning.

MEH.

You're trades aren't great from an Oilers standpoint:

- Klefbom is at least as valuable as Ehlers, if anything it's WPG that adds slightly
- RNH is worth more that Gostisbehere, PHI would need to add

The end result is a worse team: RNH > Ehlers, Klefbom >> Gostisbehere.

This is delusional.

That one dimension is really great though, when it's clicking.

5V5P/60. Who do you think is Klefbom and who do you think is Ghost below?
0.85 1.2
0.85 0.49
0.59 1.06
0.64 0.91

To say he can only produce at PP is incorrect.

This was Ghost for RNH though. Is this year an Outlier for RNH? He has 1 60 point season in 9 years, despite playing with the likes of Hall and Eberle. The narrative is that he's good defensively but if you look at Oilers PK this year he has terrible numbers (suggesting he is actually making the PK worse). He's not spectacular at the dot.

I love RNH but I think you are being biased.

*edit* to add to that, the suggestion is mostly about not having to commit to RNH's salary raise while Oilers don't have the depth to be truly competitive. By the time Oilers can truly be in discussion playoff success, RNH's best years will be gone

I think Oilers will need to commit to Draisaitl as 2C. RNH may not be a good enough 2C to win the cup in the latter half of his contract.

Prove it.

I don't want to waste time on this.

Let just say that even if NH and Klefbom were as good as you think, wich they obviously the are not, young players with long term contrats are way more valuable than older guys soon to be UFA, all talent beeing equal.

Comparing Gostisbehere to Klefbom without taking into account the fact that Klefbom plays 1st pair competition while Ghost plays 3rd pair is always going to give you a false impression, which is why I compared his scoring to that of Matt Benning.

Is this an outlier year for RNH? He has averaged 58 points per 82 games throughout his career. If you look at his "5v5 P/60" scoring rates you'll see that 2018-19 was his 4th best year out of 8. So essentially, career average scoring. His TOI was up by almost 2 minutes per game and he played all 82 - that's where the increase came from.

EW's valuation chart shows RNH to be worth $7,916,808 on an 8 year deal. Gostisbehere is worth $6,128,899 at 8 years, although EW projects that he's unlikely to receive an 8-year deal, showing him at $5,718,637 x 6 instead. That's nearly a $2M loss in value.

Ehlers and Klefbom have very close actual value, with Klefbom holding the edge in 7 of the 8 years. For instance, Ehlers' current value is listed as $5,766,240 x 4, whereas Klefbom is listed as having $5,821,558 over the same term.

So you can see how you've traded away value here.

- You've essentially traded a very good 2C and replaced him with a very good 2LW which is a positional loss in value - RNH can play 2LW just as well as Ehlers can but he can also play C, something that Ehlers cannot do. Also, you're losing something on the defensive side of the puck at 5v5.
- You also moved the team's 1LD and replaced him with a 3LD / PP specialist - right at the time that Bouchard is coming in to run the PP. Gostisbehere makes more money than Klefbom and isn't nearly as good, and his PP acumen won't be put to full use on this team anyhow. That's a SERIOUS downgrade defensively.

If you are asking rookies to come in and be the #1 PP guy off the bat I think you are asking too much. Isn't this a problem Oilers has had historically for how many years? Look to TBL's usage of Sergachev instead. Thats what believe serves Bouchard best.

You are the one wanting to talk about 5v5 production, you're the one talking smack about how Ghost can get points but mostly on the powerplay, and that he produces at the same rate as Benning (not true). Don't dodge, why does your "1st pair" defenseman have egregious 5v5 production in comparison? The guy had worse production then Larsson. If you want an argument about it then give me some answers (don't actually).

I think committing 8M for 8 years to RNH would be a massive error, which is the whole point of the trades. If anything, your obscure evaluation charts only helped put a number on it. I think if we can convert 1 RNH year to 4 cost controlled Ehlers years, we're in a much better position.

Sergachev played a LOT of PP minutes in his rookie year, yet was the most sheltered defenseman in the league at 5v5. This is exactly the way I see Bouchard being handled. And the only reason Sergachev didn't play on the 1st PP unit much was because he's blocked by Hedman. Playing with your team's top skill and with a man advantage is the very easiest minutes you can give a young player.


I still dont think it's apples and apples when one guy plays 20% more than the other. How is he going to be as fresh every shift? We're talking average 4 more minutes per night.

And yes, over 3 years his stats looks worse, but it doesn't factor in that all of Philly has been statistically worse in those 2 years. The year prior to this comparison Ghost had 60% GF%. If you look at Philly over the time period you mention, every single D-man had better GF% with than without Ghost 5v5. For scoring rate his average drops because of a bad year at 0.49, but he has better scoring in 2/3, with a 1.2 in the year prior.

I will continue to claim that advanced stats does not show context. Pretty much every player had a 10% GF% increase playing with McDavid, and that's 30% of Bennings total icetime. Are those numbers Bennings?

I was comparing Gostisbehere to Benning rather than Klefbom because Klefbom plays the hardest competition, Ghost and Benning do not. Apples-to-oranges, get it? Gostisbehere's scoring rate for the past 3 seasons is 0.84 P/60 at 5v5. Matt Benning's scoring rate while playing similar comp is 0.91 P/60. Benning also won his minutes with a 55.65 GF%, while Gostisbehere lost his at 46.55%.

https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/233122

http://naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20162017&thruseason=20182019&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=std&rate=y&team=PHI&pos=D&loc=B&toi=0&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL




But you're not doing that - you're trading cost-controlled Klefbom + a good prospect for Ehlers. I don't have a problem targeting Ehlers, but (a) Klefbom+ is too much to pay, and (b) Ehlers isn't a replacement for RNH since he can't play center.

I still dont think it's apples and apples when one guy plays 20% more than the other. How is he going to be as fresh every shift? We're talking average 4 more minutes per night.

And yes, over 3 years his stats looks worse, but it doesn't factor in that all of Philly has been statistically worse in those 2 years. The year prior to this comparison Ghost had 60% GF%. If you look at Philly over the time period you mention, every single D-man had better GF% with than without Ghost 5v5. For scoring rate his average drops because of a bad year at 0.49, but he has better scoring in 2/3, with a 1.2 in the year prior.

I will continue to claim that advanced stats does not show context. Pretty much every player had a 10% GF% increase playing with McDavid, and that's 30% of Bennings total icetime. Are those numbers Bennings?

Benning posted a 49.18 GF% without McDavid while playing in the top-4 over the past 3 years. Not bad considering how terrible the Oilers are behind McDavid.