Nah - how about $4Mx3 for Kap. Your comp would be 2020 2nd...Does he sign, and do you match?

I'd match. I think you can get around it by moving out other players (Hyman, Zaitsev).

Your original premise just might be wrong. I don't think it's obvious that the Leafs match 12.5m offer sheet for Marner. Instead of 12.5m Marner the Leafs could spend that money on different players and still have the four first rounders from the Rangers.

Marner will sign before July 1st

I'd be seriously tempted to take the picks, take a run at Stone, dump Zaitsev, upgrade the right-D (8 first rounders over 4 years can help there), and fill my pipeline with chances at a Kucherov or Point to extend the team's window.

I don't know if the Leafs would do that though.

As much as I love Marner, if this situation ever played out, I hope the leafs would let Marner walk and use that cap space as you describe . Thing is, I doubt there is a team out there that would OS Marner, as good as he is, @ 10 M and 4 firsts. And if that's true, it means the leafs shouldn't go above 10M and hold the line at Kucherov money.. would Matthews have gotten an OS? Maybe, and I think that was part of his leverage.. could Kappy or Johnsson get an OS? Id say its a likely possibility... sign them next and then trade accordingly to accommodate Marner @ under 10M

I think these dump Zaitsev trades are kinda silly. You still need a RHD to play 20 minutes an night and Zaitsev does that (if only overpaid by 1m). But you're right the Leafs are going to spend to cap, and if not Marner they sign someone else. Maybe the Rangers are better off signing UFA Stone or Duchene or Karlsson...for less than Marner money and keep those four picks.