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Créé par: slepler
Équipe: 2019-20 Sharks de San Jose
Date de création initiale: 14 déc. 2018
Publié: 19 déc. 2018
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
Here's the thinking:
1. Goaltending: Jones is very good. He led the sharks to the SCF and has a great PO record. BUT, Dell has shown that he can carry the load and Bibeau and Korenar have been the best goaltenders in the Minors. Its about resource allocation and moving jones and giving Dell the #1 job and bibeau the back up save 5m per year for a long time. They can also geta respectable return for him for a team like CAR, OTT, STL or the like that has major questions in that position.

2. D: Simek is establishing himself well, and Ryan looks like an NHLer too.As such, dougie can swing to keep karlsson and establish a solid base alongside Burns, Vlasic and Dillon, complimented by Simek and Ryan. Then, Merkley, Middleton, Desimone, Wood, and Roy who all look like potential NHLers too, can compete for a look at the #7/8 spots in case of injury or if Simek/Ryan stumble. Braun is the aging, nearly 4M man out here, but I think he is in decline and it makes sense to sell to a young team like Ottawa that has a good young Dcore but might be looking for a solid veteran base. Braun is that guy and his value is respectable.

The key is resigning karlsson who finally looks like he fits in...

3. Forwards: the emergence of Sorensen, along with the good play of Radil and Goodrow mean that Dougie can take a little risk here and take a swing at loading up the top lines with a panarin signing at 10M per. pavs, given his age, can likely be kept at around 6M per if dougie provides term (something like 8m, 8m, 6m, 5m, 3m). I think what pavs brings off the ice in leadership is crucial and makes this deal less risky than it otherwise would be.

Then, the sharks would open up 2-3 spots for competition among existing cuda like Perron, True, Halb, chartier, gambrell, and others along with chekhovich, blichfeld, gregor and others going pro next year as well as Batherson who looks like an NHLer acquired in trade. Having 8-10 potential NHL forwards creates a healthy competition.

The downsides of this team would be:

1. Goaltending: Can Dell carry the load? Can bibeau play well is 20-30 back up games? What about after 19-20?

2. O depth: The top 6 of Panarin, Couture, Hertl, Meier, kane, and Pavs are pretty secure. However, the bottom six of sorensen, goodrow, radil, batherson, Suomela, and Checkhovich could be disastrous.

3. Age on D: Burns and Vlasic would be another year older, though the rest of the D would be in the 25-29 range, which is not too bad.

4. No cap flexibility. This pretty much hits the cap at the start of the season given less flexibility for adding at the deadline or midseason moves.

The big pluses would be:

1. The D: very strong Top 4 and some solid youth on depth. I feel like this is a top 6 D (with many possible 7,8's) that would rank long term in the top 5 or 10 of the league. 11.2M per is in line with what karlsson is likely looking for and what teams would pay, so it's a realistic deal.

2. Top 6 forwards: Panarin is a super star. The sharks havent had one of those for a long time up front, and he immediately adds a speed and scay attack which still being good defensively. He transforms for the top 6. Meier signs the 2 yr 10M bridge deal, and givens them a super top line with hertl and cooch. Pavs is older and Kane is mercurial, but this would be a pretty fearsome top 6. The bottom 6 could surprise as the sharks have alot of pretty good players in the system in the cuda as well as the WHL leading scorer, and #3 in the Q (#1 in goals). Lots of good potential up front.

3. Long term stability: This team is pretty much fully stable through 2021, with just Simek, Dillon, and Dell as UFA's. They will have roughly 13M in cap space at the end of next year ample space to resign all three (dillon 4 yrs 4M, Dell 3 yrs 12M, Simek 2 years 3M = 9.5M/yr total). As such, this roster is a relatively stable long term team.

4. Draft picks: the sharks have traded away alot of picks and done a masterful job signing FAs from europe, college, and even jrs to keep the shelf stocked. However, that is a hard long term strategy. As such, through these trades, the sharks can add 5 ore draft picks over the net couple years to keep the farm stocked.
Signatures de joueurs autonomes
RFAANSCAP HIT
25 000 000 $
22 500 000 $
2850 000 $
1800 000 $
1800 000 $
1750 000 $
2850 000 $
2950 000 $
1950 000 $
UFAANSCAP HIT
21 000 000 $
811 200 000 $
2900 000 $
710 000 000 $
56 000 000 $
Transactions
1.
SJS
  1. Batherson, Drake
  2. Choix de 6e ronde en 2020 (SJS)
  3. Choix de 2e ronde en 2021 (SJS)
Détails additionnels:
Ottawa gets a #1 goalie for several years, which they desperately need. They also have a good young D with Lajoie, Chabot, Ceci, Demelo, etc, but could use some solid veteran leadership. Braun has matched up against the best of every opponent for years, and provides that veteran, hard working stability at a reasonable cost 3.8M (cheap for guy averaging 20 mins/gm against the top opponents) and still a good age.
OTT
  1. Braun, Justin
  2. Jones, Martin
Détails additionnels:
San Jose drops 9.5M in salary while adding a good young forward and getting back some lost picks.
2.
SJS
  1. Choix de 2e ronde en 2019 (BUF)
  2. Choix de 3e ronde en 2020 (BUF)
  3. Choix de 6e ronde en 2020 (BUF)
Détails additionnels:
Carolina desperately needs offense and gets a top 9 forward on pace for over 50 pts this year, who is young and cheap. They also get a good depth player, PKer, and character guy.
CAR
  1. Karlsson, Melker
  2. Labanc, Kevin
Détails additionnels:
The sharks save karlsson's salary (and labanc's), and get some picks to keep the farm stocked.
Rachats de contrats
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2019
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2020
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2021
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2022
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TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
2083 000 000 $78 205 750 $660 750 $180 000 $4 794 250 $
Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
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8 000 000 $8 000 000 $
C
M-NTC
UFA - 8
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5 625 000 $5 625 000 $
C
UFA - 3
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5 000 000 $5 000 000 $
AG, AD
UFA - 4
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7 000 000 $7 000 000 $
AG, AD
M-NTC
UFA - 6
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6 000 000 $6 000 000 $
AD
UFA - 3
10 000 000 $10 000 000 $
AG
UFA - 7
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1 000 000 $1 000 000 $
AG, AD
UFA - 2
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925 000 $925 000 $
C, AG
UFA - 2
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900 000 $900 000 $
AG
UFA - 1
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776 667 $776 667 $ (Bonis de performance160 000 $$160K)
C, AG
UFA - 3
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950 000 $950 000 $
C
UFA - 1
Logo de Sénateurs d'Ottawa
736 666 $736 666 $ (Bonis de performance20 000 $$20K)
AD, AG
UFA - 2
Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
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675 000 $675 000 $
DG/DD
UFA - 1
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5 280 000 $5 280 000 $
DD
M-NTC
UFA - 6
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1 900 000 $1 900 000 $
G
UFA - 1
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1 635 000 $1 635 000 $
DG
UFA - 1
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11 200 000 $11 200 000 $
DD
UFA - 8
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675 000 $675 000 $
G
UFA - 1
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7 000 000 $7 000 000 $
DG/DD
NMC
UFA - 7
Logo de Sharks de San Jose
850 000 $850 000 $
DG
UFA - 1

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19 déc. 2018 à 17 h 1
#1
Grierless Sharks Fan
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Trading Jones is insane. Dell hasn't shown he can be a #1 goalie.

Labanc will get more money than that. It's insane to give Pavelski that much term.

Even with Panarin, the Sharks are worse off.
19 déc. 2018 à 18 h 12
#2
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sjsharks82
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Quoting: goodfella
Trading Jones is insane. Dell hasn't shown he can be a #1 goalie.

Labanc will get more money than that. It's insane to give Pavelski that much term.

Even with Panarin, the Sharks are worse off.


1. Labanc won't get much more than that. He might get less. Wouldnt surprise me if he gets a 1 yr, 2M deal. He is just ending an ELC, not arbitration eligible. He has failed to hold a top 6 roles, and has spent time demoted down the lineup for his defensive play. He is a PP specialist right now who has been outwardly criticized for his lack of two-way play, and he is prone to bad penalties, having taken 10 non-coincidental minors already this year, to lead the team. The potential is definitely there, but he will get a "Show me" contract, much like what william karlsson got. Clearly roughly 40 goals, 80 pts and a +50 is worth 10M or more, yet karlsson only got 5.25M. Why? Becuase he is on a "show me deal" to see if he can prove that he is the superstar he "could" be. Labanc is similar: He looks like he "could" be a top 6 forward 50-60 pt player, but he has not shown it consistently without big problems along with it. He has no leverage, so I expect 1 yr 2M, or 2 yrs 5M. It could go up to 3M per, but I would be completely shocked if he gets more than 2 years and more an 3M per. Not likely....

I actually think thats why I included him in a trade. I think Deboer likes his PP work, but not much else. Hes not a puck possession player, nor physical, nor lighting it up, not super defensively. Unless he completes his game, I think hs trade value may be higher than he is 'real' value.

2. I agree in large part with your assessment on Jones. Im actually a big jones fan, so trading him is not high on my list. That said, I like the way Dell has played and I love the way Korenar and Bibeau look in the minors. I wonder which is better : Jones+Braun+Labanc or Panarin+Dell+Ryan? Panarin doesnt have the brand value that Tavares has, but he has outscored him since entering the league. He transformed the jackets into a PO team, almost single-handedly, while his departure completely crippled chicago. He is underrated, and adding him transforms the forwards. I think the sharks have a better chance to win each night with Panarin, Dell, and Ryan in the lineup as opposed to Jones, Braun, and Labanc.

That said, I can understand your aversion to dealing Jones. I have Panarin-colored glasses...
19 déc. 2018 à 18 h 24
#3
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sjsharks82
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Quoting: goodfella
Trading Jones is insane. Dell hasn't shown he can be a #1 goalie.

Labanc will get more money than that. It's insane to give Pavelski that much term.

Even with Panarin, the Sharks are worse off.


lastly, I understand the reservations about Pavs. a 39 year old making 6M on the cap seems crazy. However, in Pavs' case, I dont think it is. If they want to give only 3 or less years, it'll cost 7M or more. He's on pace for 50 goals, is captain america, plays PP, PK, and basically does it all. 30 other teams will line up for him. He might get 8M per.

4 reasons I think offering Pavs (and specifically Pavs) that kind of term:

1. He plays a game that wont devolve that much with age. He tips pucks. shoots one-timers, snipes corners, bangs home rebounds. He doesnt blaze by guys driving wide. His game does not rely on young legs or speed, so what he brings today is likely to be similar to what he brings 3 years from now.
2. He is in great shape. He has missed one game in the last 8 years! He is arguably the most durable player in the entire NHL!!! He has no nagging injuries that will worsen over time. Term for him is much less risky than a guy like jumbo or even hertl with the wonky knees, or Kane with his injury history. Pavs just isnt likely to get hurt and the way he plays the game makes him continue to be a low injury risk.
3. Even if he became a PP specialist with declining on ice value, he is arguably the best leader the sharks have ever had. He was captain America for a clear reason. They have had zero leadership issues since he took the captaincy after years of patty/jumbo questioning. As such, even if he declines, he will justify his salary in the locker room.
4. Giving him term is the only way to keep the cap hit low. Taking it 1-2 years at a time with him will cost a ton in near term cap hit. If the sharks want to "go for it" while pavs, burns, pickles, and cooch are still in the respectable early 30's, they will need to maximize cap value in the next two years. Giving pavs term can achieve a much lower cap hit and allow the sharks to ice a stronger roster in the near term.

Trust me on this: If they lose pavs, the chemistry in the room will vastly change. Cooch would be captain and he would be great, but they would lose the most respected voice in the room. The shock waves would show up throughout the organization.
20 déc. 2018 à 11 h 26
#4
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I like the way you thought about it, but it all stands and falls with Panarin signing. Too bad Sharks signed Kane on this huge contract, I remember arguing under some Kane signing A-GM team with a fella who claimed that he deserved it and that the market is set this way. For me comparation point was Pastrnak and given the age and ppg production, it tells me that Kane shouldve been signed for less (well he has physical play, but is inconsistent).

I´m not sure with Karlsson resigning here, and if he stays, I don´t expect him to have such an impact as in Ottawa.

Jones is good goalie, but inconsistent too (especially this year), and Dell is good as backup but when Jones was injured last year and dell had like 7 games in a row, his save percentage dropped, so no he is not a starter for 55+ games.

What is your opinion on Donskoi (especially in comparation to Labanc)? He is a guy worth keeping imo, but it would require more cap.
20 déc. 2018 à 11 h 56
#5
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sjsharks82
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Quoting: Mikker575
I like the way you thought about it, but it all stands and falls with Panarin signing. Too bad Sharks signed Kane on this huge contract, I remember arguing under some Kane signing A-GM team with a fella who claimed that he deserved it and that the market is set this way. For me comparation point was Pastrnak and given the age and ppg production, it tells me that Kane shouldve been signed for less (well he has physical play, but is inconsistent).

I´m not sure with Karlsson resigning here, and if he stays, I don´t expect him to have such an impact as in Ottawa.

Jones is good goalie, but inconsistent too (especially this year), and Dell is good as backup but when Jones was injured last year and dell had like 7 games in a row, his save percentage dropped, so no he is not a starter for 55+ games.

What is your opinion on Donskoi (especially in comparation to Labanc)? He is a guy worth keeping imo, but it would require more cap.


Yeah, I agree with you about Kane. I didnt hate the signing, but I didnt love it either. He is a guy who scores 4 goals in a game, and then disappears for two weeks. In the PO's, he was terrible vs. vegas and while they blame it on injury, he has a long history of injury so that's a problem in itself. His play this year has been atrocious. That said, I still think dougie loves him, and he's not going anywhere. I'm not sure about the patrnak comparison, largly due to age. Kane was a 26 year old UFA, Pastrnak signing his extension as a 22 year old RFA with minimal leverage. I think 7x7 for kane is likely what the market would have given. Im just not sure whether dougie should have been the one to give it. The good news is that 7M will seem alot cheaper 3 or 4 years from now (as the cap rises) and kane will still be 29. I think that's the idea given that he was just 26 when he signed.

Agreed that Karlsson is a key player, but not the unquestioned anchor that he was in ottawa. If he wants to be the bonafide undeniable #1 playing upwards of 30 mins/night, then SJ is not the spot. But if he is OK playing 23-25 mins and a key piece but alongside other top veterans (burns, pickles...), then SJ is a great choice for him. I think winning is fun. If the sharks win alot in the 2nd half, karlsson will be very tempted to sign here. The weather is great. Locker room is great. winning culture is there. Lots to be tempted about and that's why Tavares almost came. Dougie has walked this road with Jones, Kane, Burns, Jumbo, and others, so he knows how to trade for a guy and then woo him once in the organization.

I completely understand the worry about giving dell the keys to the castle. This is clearly the weakest part of the plan, but it's kinda the "go for it" mentality. Could lead to a cup, could be disaster.

Of course, Braun is only dealt if karlsson resigns and jones is only dealt if panarin was signed. If either of those does not happen, then the other trades don't either.

Donkey is a tough call. Im not sure how much he gets on the open market. Could be as low as 2 or as high as 4. Hard to tell the market as he has shows flashes of crazy brilliance and super hands, but is also soft on his skates and has long dry stretches. Bancer seems to have the higher ceiling but is not good defensively and takes bad penalties right now. He's also just 22,23 and plays like an unfinished rookie, while donkey is several years older, clearly more veteran but seems to be hitting a production wall. Personally Id keep bancer over donkey, in case bancer can learn the 200 foot game. If he does, he could be a 24 or 25 year old, putting up 60+ pts at a very reasonable cap hit.

The other X-factor is dougie's annual skill at finding free agents who slot into the lineup each year. 3 years ago, it was donkey and karlsson. Then it was Dell.Then Goodrow. Then it was Simek, Suomela, and Radil. Year after year, he finds free agents out of college, jr's and europe who come in and play a key depth role. It's fair to assume that will happen again next summer, so there could be a key cog in the wheel not listed above.
Mikker575 a aimé ceci.
 
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