I don't see MTL making that trade. Getting Gardiner and then retaining 3M on Weber is like having Weber again. At least with Weber you have a top pairing guy for the foreseeable future, a contract that teams looking to get over the cap would want, a contract that if Weber decides to retire early makes him a valuable asset to trade back to Nashville, an amnesty buyout period during the next lockout if we absolutely need to buy him out, etc etc

Rosen and the goat are not enticing enough.

I know people on here are obsessed with contracts and terms but there is still a good possibility Weber plays out his contract at a high enough level that he isn't liability. Look at Chara this year. Plenty of other examples of players playing quality hockey into there late 30's. I don't understand why Weber is a going to be an absolute burden at 35.... Weber doesn't need to be a Norris candidate every year of his contract. He just needs to not be a bad player. 7.8M will be the price for an average top 4 dman by the time Weber's contract is over.

Good points all, but I'm trying to say to Montreal fans that it will be a trade with significant holdback, and lesser assets in order to move, Weber. I still do think Weber is going to be a + Dman, but he is coming back from a serious injury, and will be coming back at age 33, with 8 years and $60M+ left on his contract. If Gardiner didn't work out, you can just cut bait. There are no guarantees that there will be an amnesty period if and when they open the CBA again. No guarantee the league and players association will even turf the CBA after the 20 season. There is no incentive to Nashville to trade for Weber should he decide to retire, they are held to full claw back, on the contract, and thus will not be giving up assets to take back a player, they will end up taking a crazy cap hit for should he retire. Montreal loses the player for nothing, but doesn't take the hit! The deal as constructed, perhaps doesn't suggest fair value for who Weber is/was, but not sure any team will offer "fair value" given the injury concern gamble!

Now that this is Kyle Dubas' team, I could definitely see him making his mark by going after and reeling in the big fish in John Tavares. That said, the ability to run a roster with 2 players making over $10 million (once Matthews is signed next season), gets quite difficult even if the salary cap continues to steadily rise. My thought is that this team will go after a defenceman like OEL and ensure that he is signed to a new deal pending completion of the trade.

why would he drop 10 mill on a first line C when u already have one, and the clubs biggest need is defense???

Except we're not just cutting bait, we're retaining 3M. For an extra 4M we'd actually have a dman to keep that we're happy with. there is no guarantee Weber isn't going to be good for a long time either.

There are no guarantees in anything but no one is going to make a rash decision now before they know anything. What if there is a lockout? What if there is a amnesty buyouts? What if the current CBA is simply tweaked? What if Weber decides to retire at 37? We have no guarantee of anything but I'm not going to bet against everything staying the norm with a couple tweaks. Radical changes don;t come over night.

As for Weber, the Preds are stuck with that contract even if Montreal has him due to the last CBA. The recapture penalty is enormous if he retires early due to his own will or injury. Nashvilles only saving grace is to trade for him back, so that they can keep him on LTIR for the remainder of his contract instead of letting him retire. Obviously Weber would have to agree to stay not retired officially for this too work but you don't see Hossa or Lupul retiring do you? He gets his money, Nashville gets the cap relief, Montreal gets assets. Everyone wins which is why it'll work. Its the same type of reason why Bolland, Clarkson, Horton were traded. They have no intention of ever playing again but by staying on as an active player they provide the club the LTIR cap relief.

https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2018/02/examining-salary-cap-recapture-in-the-shea-weber-trade.html

Did you not completely read what I wrote? I suggest re-reading. I am not disagreeing with you.

a star d man like oel will cost marner or nylander. u r aware of that right?