@Pensfan89 @ShafferPens
Conor Sheary is not better than Jean-Gabriel Pageau. Here is why:
In 2016-2017, Sheary was
statistically dependent on Crosby to elevate his stats. The following graph breaks that down:
http://www.hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/wowy/1617/PIT/shearco92/wrap
In the above graph, you want to be as far right and up as possible. Notice the blue 87 box, all the way on the left. Yup, when Sheary didn't have Crosby he had a score-adjusted shots for of around 52 while having a score-adjusted shots against of around 59. Thats -7 in score adjusted shots for
without Crosby.
In that same figure, take note of the black 87 box. That was where Sheary was with Crosby. Approximately 66 score-adjusted shots for vs. 57 score adjusted shots against. Around a +9 differential. Now look at Crosby without Sheary, which is represented by the red 87 box. The score-adjusted shots against are around the same, but Crosby had around 6 more score-adjusted shots for without Sheary.
To summarize, when Sheary was without Crosby, he had more shots happen against than for. When Crosby was without Sheary, he had around the same shots against, but more shots for. This means that Sheary feasted on Crosby's elite play driving ability and in doing so, held him back when he played with him.
Fast forward to present day: Sheary is playing on different lines. And guess what: he isn't producing nearly the same with Crosby. To give a reference point, here was his production in '16-'17 vs. '17-'18:
2016-2017: 0.868 PPG. Mike Hoffman that year was at 0.824 PPG with a center in Jean-Gabriel Pageau (5v5 only) --> 333 minutes
2017-2018: 0.372 PPG. Matt Calvert this year has 0.405 PPG.
So what does this mean? Exactly this:
Quoting: ShafferPens
Sheary stats are inflated by Crosby.
@Moller brings up a great point: if you were in the OTT position, would you make this trade? My answer: a swift no.