stay around 500 until 72 and 22 are back

Dont think Cozens on the 4th line keeps them at .500, or that .500 at january gives them much to make a run. This year should be about development now.

balancing 4 lines, no line should be considered at the bottom.

If they are .500 at Christmas, they'd have to go something like 28-18-4 the rest of the season. VERY doable with the roster, especially considering the improved goaltending this year. The offense has been bad but getting Thompson and Quinn back changes the way every line looks.

14 games til christmas break, assume they get there with like a 16-15-4, that's 36 points after 35 games. the cut off isn't going to be low 90s like last year, there are better teams in the division now like detroit. Even if I generously put it at 95, that would require them to pick up 59 or 60 points in the final 47 games.

This is a near 105 pt pace the rest of the season. Even healthy, this team is nowhere near that, otherwise they wouldn't be in this mess to begin with. Erik Johnson, Okposo, Clifton and Girgensons are going to continue receiving regular ice time. That's already enough of a problem before you factor in core players taking a huge step back. Dahlin looks like he's playing for Ralph Krueger.

The best thing they can do right now is take the time to help them find their game again so that they don't run into the same problem next year, hopefully under a different coach.

The cutoff will definitely around the same #.

Yeah sure, teams like Detroit and Washington are better but that just means theres going to be more mediocrity from like teams 6-11 in the conference and they'll take points off on another.

I don't see DET, TOR, PIT, OTT, TB, PHI, BUF or NYI breaking away from the rest. BOS, NYR, NJD, CAR and FLA are the clear cut best teams in the conference and the rest will just take points off one another. Even MTL and CBJ aren't terrible and are very capable of beating any of those teams on any given night.

It probably will be higher. Even if I grant your premise, that still requires the Sabres to play at a 102 pt pace for 47 games. That's not happening this year.