This is part 1 of an (at least) 2 part AGM series for the Flyers. This one will cover the 2022-23 season and related moves, including potential signings of PTOs, Roster cuts (or promotions), LTIR statuses, and of course the Trade Deadline. The second part will cover 2023-24 and the biggest piece, their place in the 2023 draft. I will go into depth on that in that AGM.
Note that this is just my hypothetical for the best case big picture scenario, not that every single thing that happens is 100% lopsided in the Flyers favor. Just what I think would be their best moves that set up long term success.
1.) Ellis and Couturier are likely to be on LTIR at the start of the season, and it is realistically possible that they both miss the entire year (or maybe Couts plays like....10-20 games at the end of the season). Farabee I believe is expected to be shorter term (just IR) so for the purpose of projecting the season he will be in the lineup.
2.) I think that the Couturier injury among other things will lead to the Flyers signing Roussel. I do not like the move, but I think it will happen. I want to be as realistic as possible in roster moves, so he won't get anything crazy but I see what they are looking at when they brought him in (fighting, some PK ability).
3.) JVR trade: I think its almost certain that JVR is traded at the deadline. For the purpose of this AGM, I am not really interested in the specifics of where he is traded and for what. That depends on a lot of factors like his performance and health and that of teams looking to go on a run. So, PLEASE do not overreact to the location and return of the trade.
4.) Sanheim trade: This one I think the location and return is much more important. I did my best, but I caution you to not get too hung up as we've seen how teams can rise/collapse, and how prices can fluctuate for players (see: Chiarot and Leddy). I think a 1st is an absolute starting point. I chose the Kings for the following reasons: First, I think they would consider upgrading their LHD position. Edler is a warrior, but he does have an injury history and he may benefit from not having to play every night. Secondly, they have a solid prospect pool to choose from. Thirdly, they have some money coming off from Quick, Lemieux, Moore, Edler, and if Walker is included in this trade, then him as well. They could realistically resign Sanheim, who is not old by any means. LA kings pairings then could be: Doughty (once healthy)- Anderson, Bjornfot/Sanheim-Roy, Sanheim/Bjornfot-Durzi. Thats pretty damn stacked in my opinion.
5.) Zamula post TDL call up: If healthy and progressing as he has been, I think Zamula gets called up to replace Sanheim for the rest of 2023. Gives him time to audition.
Other thoughts: This lineup is then the expected lineup for the rest of the Flyers season post TDL. I personally just can't see players like Brown and MacEwen getting much interest, if they do it will be no more than a 6th or 7th so I didn't really bother. With Couturier missing significant time, Farabee missing at least some time, and the realistic possibility of players like Hayes, Laughton, Ristolainen, and Atkinson missing time throughout the season I project the Flyers to finish no higher than 7th in the Metropolitan division, possibly ahead of either the Devils or Blue Jackets, but most likely 8th. I believe they will finish behind only Arizona, Chicago, and Montreal in the standings, leaving them with the fourth worst record in the NHL.
Continued in Part 2.
EDIT: I neglected to include Allison. I like Allison, I just forgot. I do have injury concerns, but it is what it is. I think he starts in AHL, if he stays healthy they waive Roussel and he comes up.
JVR's performance will really matter on the return. I think they can't expect to get much more than a 3rd with the amount of money he is owed, including the possibility of the receiving team needing to include a third team. The closest comparable I can think of for an older player is the Jeff Carter trade, but he had term and plays center. Its possible that the trade ends up including a prospect or maybe even a 2nd. We just don't know until we get there. Boston is a filler: insert any playoff contending team in 2023 that wants scoring winger depth and can make it fit. Worse players get traded every year.
It is entirely possible that JVR has to be laundered through a third team for another pick from either the receiving team or the Flyers. Since I can't know this now I won't go crazy with it.
This is the big one. I really like Sanheim, but to properly set yourselves up for the future, you need to sell big. This may be a lot, but Sanheim is a young defenseman with skills that modern NHL defensemen need. For the Flyers, it would be great to resign him but they do have some LHD depth compared to RHD, and they also have mismanaged their cap to the point where it may be too hard to resign him for what he wants (if he even wants to stay).
I know Kings fans in other posts I've made has said Walker is the odd man out here, so I included him as the Flyers could use RHD even if just placeholders. I know his health is in question, but either way he can play or go on LTIR while giving LA some relief. Vilardi is included as well which may be controversial, but he is in the same boat as Frost on the Flyers: nearing the point of being labeled a bust, but still has some pedigree. I think if they are sending walker, they send a good young center, or they send a better RHD and a worse center. I think this one is better for LA while still being good for the Flyers too.
3.
PHI
Choix de 4e ronde en 2023 (OTT)
Détails additionnels:
This one is optional, they may just keep Braun especially if they do a move like my Kings trade and say, Walker is unhealthy.
Braun got a 4th last year, its possible its a 5th if he drops off. He's a good bottom 6 RHD, and I'm sure it'd be preferable to Zaitsev eating up minutes. Plus he's a veteran voice for their playoff hopes.
No thanks from LA. That's way too much for a rental. I get there's retention on it, but that's more than what we paid for Fiala (who essentially already had a contract in place and wasn't UFA).
LA would love a left D, sure. But they've already proven that their core of defenseman (even with a massive amount of injuries) can get them to the playoffs. I can't see them overpaying like this for someone who could just walk as soon as sign an extension. I'd pay that price for Provorov (with the same retention), but not Sanheim.
Obviously, that wouldn't work for Philly, so unless the price comes down on Sanheim, I don't see a viable trading partner here.
No thanks from LA. That's way too much for a rental. I get there's retention on it, but that's more than what we paid for Fiala (who essentially already had a contract in place and wasn't UFA).
LA would love a left D, sure. But they've already proven that their core of defenseman (even with a massive amount of injuries) can get them to the playoffs. I can't see them overpaying like this for someone who could just walk as soon as sign an extension. I'd pay that price for Provorov (with the same retention), but not Sanheim.
Obviously, that wouldn't work for Philly, so unless the price comes down on Sanheim, I don't see a viable trading partner here.
I mean, I think I wrote in the description that they have the money to keep him. I would assume that is what they would do. Also, just my personal opinion: right now, Sanheim is better than Provorov. Provy has been a weird player in the past few years. I get he has the pedigree of being a 1st rounder...but Sanheim was too. Also, just to your point about a rental: look at what Ben Chiarot got as a rental and being many years older than Sanheim: a conditional 1st (and sure if you want to have conditions for the Kings pick, go ahead), a 4th, and a prospect. Not only is Sanheim younger, he is better than Chiarot.
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