Offseason

Ignoring your numbers for a second, I still have a hard time believing Carolina would let go of Pesce. I mean, your logic seems pretty clear here, we are trade some depth at forward for one very good defender to "solidify" our back end. I use the quotes because the Leafs seem to always have some sort of issue on defense, regardless of who they trade for/sign.

On the assumption that Sandin (likely) and Liljegren (probably?) make this team between a try out at some point this season through pre-camp in 20-21, then there is 1 opening for a good defender. Could Pesce fill that spot? Sure. But I would argue Bracco is gone by/at this year's trade deadline. The fact that Marchment and Brooks are getting recalls ahead of him tell me the Leafs are not satisfied with his development in some shape or form. Based on the fact that the injury bug, especially at forward, caused the Leafs to sink deep into their forward depth, I'd argue it's important the Leafs keep a guy, especially a hard-nose in-your-face player, like Korshkov.

So, assuming your deal is relatively accurate, as far as reasonableness, I would say the Leafs might be able to find a cheaper option to fill that 1 hole. Although left-handed, the Leafs could try and resign Muzzin, or perhaps even right-handed Barrie. I would think that the Leafs would trade one of Johnsson or Kapanen as part of a deal for Phillipe Myers (Flyers) or Josh Manson (Anaheim). The latter is having an off-season, so maybe trading low on him works. The former is a still a lot of potential. The obvious move here would be to try and sign UFA (if he gets there) Alex Pietrangelo, but, in order to accommodate that salary, the Leafs would likely have to trade Nylander.