TML 2020 aka pulling strings together from whats left

My evaluation of Dubas work till now

Tavares - signing ............................................................................................... ( A ) i think that was a sure shot on JT side right after he hits UFA but still let him have merits
Nylander - signing............................................................................................ ( B+ ) explained below
TDL 2019 - trades..............................................................................................( D+ ) if not Muzzin B+ trade it would be F
Muzzin - trade .................................................................................................. ( B+ ) we could hunt someone younger with longer term like Manson or Pesce for additional 2x 2nd
Matthews - signing ...........................................................................................( C- ) avalanche of overpayment dragged by this one
DEPTH - signings...............................................................................................( A ) great job with one way minimum wage contracts on Sparks, Rosen, Borgman, Moore

The above were written at TDL 2019

DRAFT 2019 -................................................................................................ ( B+ ) only focusing on Marleau maneuver
FA 2019 -........................................................................................................ ( B+ ) getting rid of second bad contract and bringing in RHD Gardiner
DEPTH FA - signings....................................................................................... ( A- ) some veteran RHD for 700k could be fished also )
Kapanen - signing........................................................................................... ( A- )
Johnsson - signing........................................................................................... ( A- )
Kerfoot - signing............................................................................................... ( A )
Marner – signing ...............................................................................................( C- ) as predicted in Matthews remark



NYLANDER (minor fail )

i was giving him 7 x 6,8M in my simulations in Summer 2018 cause 61 + 61 and inflation with cap raise ( otherwise point-contibution would make him 6,5M max)

i still believe Nylander was a pre-made setup, which allowed TML to give him money he wanted but with higher pay-check this year cause it was affordable. By holdout he was losing 20k per day, which in two months resulted in 1,2M deficit on his account. Distract that from 10,27M and you get 2M surplus to spread over 6 years on top of 6,9M contract which makes him 6 x 7,2M, so 600k above what he should get based on his previous two seasons production .In my books not such a tragedy in overpayment. Proly that cost TML the resigning of P.Lindholm at 1,5M next year.

Before signing comparable to :
Kutcherov ( 3 x 4,7M on top of 66 + 65)
Gaudreau ( 6 x 6,7M on top of 64 + 78 )
Monahan ( 7 x 6,4M on top of 34 + 63 + 62 )


MATTHEWS ( major fail )

in my books from Summer 2018 he was 8 x 11M cause 69 + 63 + "75" and riding on hype ( otherwise points-contribution would make him 8x8M max )

Lets say for the sake of argument Matthews is as good as McDavid ( he isnt, but still )

McDavid signed 8 x 12,5M in 2017, which would be 13,7M in 2018 with Cap raise ( 5% ) and rounded to 10% cause of "inflation".

8 x 13,7M
7 x 12,5M
6 x 11,3M
5 x 10,1M

The above should be logical descending contracts for Matthews ofc after he would score 100 points in his second season and rolling another 100 this season. You can figure the overpayment in $$ / years of contract by yourself. Maybe not even a tragedy if it wouldnt make precedens for all the other contracts to be signed.

Two other names come to mind ....Draisaitl and Eichel, both marked as centers, both signed 2017-2018, both considered overpayment... so ideal comparables to Matthews

Draisaitl.............51 + 77...............8 x 8,5M ( 128 points in first two seasons )....again if he would sign in 2018 with same stats, it would be 8 x 9,4M..........so 5 x 6,5M ( on spot )
Eichel.................56 + 57...............8 x 10M ( 113 points in first two seasons )....again if he would sign in 2018 with same stats, it would be 8 x 11M..........so 5 x 8M ( overpayment )
Matthews..........63 + 69...............5 x 11,6M ( 132 points in first two seasons )

2M overpayment on this if he would be McDavid's level and what i can read from this contract is he is the greedy one ( not Nylander ) and wants to hit UFA asap and move to whoever gives him more.....so another minus from me on his account from TML fan perspective

Ppl here waveing around with : Matthews just gave TML a discount with his 5 x 11,634M ( on top of 63 + 69 seasons ) cause he asked for 8 x 13M ( again on top of 63 + 69 seasons ) and thats his mercifull bowdown to help TML with cap troubles in 2019/2020.
8 x 13,7M is McDavids money if he signed in summer 2018 instead 2017 and if we calculate in the Cap raise and "inflation". And hes not McDavid.

Matthews logic of helping TML : 8 x 13M
........................................................7 x 12,6M
........................................................6 x 12,1M
........................................................5 x 11,634M

Each year of Matthews from 6 to 8 as UFA years is worth 455k.......i mean

Or reversed ( assuming one UFA year averages 800k )
........................................................5 x 11,634M
........................................................6 x 12,434M
........................................................7 x 13,234M
........................................................8 x 14,034M

After those 5x 11,634M Chiarelli looks like genius with McDavid and Draisaitl 8y contracts......

TDL 2019

MUZZIN

Great addition with no doubt, but with two 2nd rounds ( 2019, 2020 ) i believe TML could land Manson, Spurgeon or even Pesce, which would be younger, defensive RHD and with longer term

GARDINER

you dont let ppl like JvR and Gardiner walk ( even Bozak ), even if being what ppl like to call buyer or not

ANA – Montour ( just cause he was traded this TDL )
ANA -- Manson
CAR -- Pesce
VAN -- Stecher ( mostly as team with D in »rebuild« with Gardiner as center point )
MIN – Spurgeon ( JvR at 2018 TDL )
NSH – Ellis ( JvR at 2018 TDL )

»Moneyballing«: Building better defence for the price of overstacked offence soon enough, even if on the way to playoffs wouldnt hurt at all, so JvR should be sacrificed for one of those guys at TDL 2018 ( i dare to claim better D last year would compensate for the points JvR brought to the game ), Gardiner at TDL 2019, that would bring two top RHDs which would proly bring TML further then first round playoffs, cause i assume it will be the fate this year also...

Fact is that in last few years TML succesfully drafted the Offence, added big piece of Elite with Tavares...so some offensive power should be thrown away for the sake to build proper D, escpeciall now when late round drafted kids are rolling like being first rounders.

DEPTH

Nothing to add here, school examples of minimum one way contracts, started with Johnsson, Ennis and continuing with Moore, Rosen, Borgman, Sparks

DRAFT 2019

I was saying we will need to suck it till Marleau on the payroll, cause he was hindering TML for getting D rebuilt with knowing Gardiner and Hainsey are out and their money will go to Marner. Then he was dumped together with 1st. Could be better, was hoping for 2nd max

FA 2019

Then Zaitsev was swapped for Ceci, which is slight stepdown from my point of view, Brown got out for 3rd ( which many of you were saying here, i was humble again with 4th ) so its actually 1 for 1 with giving both players new start. Could be better ? I dont know, its patching and not upgrading ( or maybe just getting another asset to swap at TDL )

And finally Kadri ( that i was trading from last summer and was flaked as hell from all sides cause he will stay Leaf for lifetime ), where the trade looks like win on paper, Kadri for Kerfoot which is again slightly stepdown at first sight but kid is younger and can come like 1M cheaper ( also read kid is two-way efficient as Kadri was ) and 3y of Kadri + Rosen + 3rd for Barries rental also seems, well, with Kadri-has-to-go in my books its not that hard to swallow. Barrie again isnt upgrading but patching cause we just got another Gardiner with him, this time RHDed. Also he will command 8M at least next year, which i think isnt doable

So all in all, Zaitsev = Ceci ( slight loss but 1y vs 5y contract ), Kadri = Kerfoot ( slight loss short term tho kid can pan out better in few years ) and Barrie = Gardiner is just putting TML where they were in 2018/2019. Contenders but again without shutdown Ds in top Pairs ( which i think is a must, as i already said, i may be biased after 25 years between pipes, but i really never liked to be sitting duck and i think Andersen neither )

DEPTH 2 ( at FA )

4#C in Spezza for 700k, 27 Points Agostino for 700k, not sure about 4#C Shore ( pun intended ) but still ...nothing to add here......


KAPANEN

My take would be 2 x 2,7M cause 9 + "50" doesnt earn you nothing over 3M, but with recent trend Dubarelli is setting, maybe 1 x 2,9M for him, just to show we can overpay them all

League Comparables :
Bjorkstrand...8 + 13 + 40 got him 3 x 2,5M
Danault.........10 + 44 + 25 got him 3 x 3M ( arbitration )

JOHNSSON

Same as for Kapanen, tho hes one season of stats short, but lets say he gets the same

Comparables :
Arvidsson ( 7 x 4,250M on top of 16 + 61 , tho i think kid screwed himself a bit with term to long )
Danault 3 x 3M ( arbitration )

KERFOOT

When acquired i gave the kid 4 x 4M ( and 2 x 3,5M ) but they managed to sign him 4 x 3,5M....im going to sit in the corner

MARNER ( major fail )

Back in Summer 2018 mostly went with 7 x 8M cause 61 + 69 + "90" and taking "hometown discount" ( otherwise points-contribution would make him 8x8,5M max )

Comparables :
Kutcherov ( 3 x 4,7M on top of 66 + 65)
Panarin ( 2 x 6M on top of 77 + 74 )

Aaaaand he did it again........


KYLE DUBAS
GRADE YEAR : JUNIOR
FINAL GRADE : B
MENTOR : CHIARELLI

2018/2019....GA 19th......SA 29th......SCA 29th......PP.....PK
2019/2020....GA 26th......SA 28th......SCA 23th......PP 7th......PK 26th

2015/2016............71,4M.......+1,6M
2016/2017.............73M.........+2M
Expansion draft 2017
2017/2018.............75M.........4,5M
2018/2019............79,5M........+2M
2019/2020............81,5M..........+2,5M
2020/2021.............84M............+3M
Expansion Draft 2021
2021/2022.............87M............+6M
2022/2023.............93M

About a 3.5 GPA. Grading was a very unfair with the muzzin trade. Barrie trade is probably A+ as well.
Chirreli is a D- GM, Mike Millbury, and Paul Fenton are Fs, so giving him a B+, is misproving your entire point

and you needed to quote the whole wall for that ?

In your books with those gardes maybe....but as always.....100 ppl 100 natures is the saying in my country ( dont know if it translates properly into English ). Would be better if he would take Poile for a mentor and not the ones you flashlighted in trying to point out how great he has done......

EDITED : Johnsson, and Kapanen with A- cause he didnt exceled but was on the spot.

Barrie trade : seems like you are one of those whos reading it wrong, Barrie was brought in as rental ( cause Sakic didnt want go with 8M into his late thirties ) so basically trade is Barrie as rental for 6th and Rosen and whats left from overpayment in Kadri - Kerfoot swap. Anyone with common sense can see TML cant afford him next year also....

This is so bitter and negative. With the Legion of haters out there perhaps Leaf fans should leave it to them to be unreasonably negative.

I won't go into great detail but my thoughts are.

1) Chiarelli started the new market with his McDavid and Draisaitl contracts, Dubas had to give his young guys big contracts. Matthews being a generational talent was going to cost more than McDavid on a 8 year deal and TO couldn't afford to pay that so the term was less. The fact he got his contract 2 years after McDavid meant a higher cap and higher cap hit. It's just business. Also Matthews will never be a bad contract. He'll earn every penny, he's the best player on the team and the best goal scorer in the game currently at 5v5.

2) Nylander's deal will look fantastics in 2 months from now and you and everyone else that chirps him will have to eat some words.

3) Muzzin is better than Manson or Pesce who are both very much overrated. Good player but at best 3rd best on their respective teams and either would be #4 in TO. A fan judging Dubas for not making the trade you would have made is about as empty a statement as one can make. There is a reason he is a GM and you are whatever it is you do.

4) the other trades and signings have been fine to outstanding. The Kadri trade was awesome, the depth vets for league mins is something no one else is doing so give Dubas credit.

5) While I agree that Marner could be lower it's not the end of the world and not even a problem, he'll score points and is a terrific player. Increases the shooting percentage of everyone he plays with (apart from Matthews, which is weird but doesn't matter Nylander has that job anyways) TSN just did a story on that.

So in closing, maybe try to see a bit of positivity in the world. There is enough doom and gloom.

Muzzin is slightly better than Manson but pesce?? It’s not even close - go look at their advanced statistics and you’ll see who’s been better the last two seasons.