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tjhacala
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24 juill. 2019
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Blues de St-Louis
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Forum:
Armchair-GM
1 févr. 2021 à 12 h 33
Sujet:
Next Year
Can't see Thomas or Kyrou getting more than $2M in a flat cap environment until they reach arbitration eligibility. If they sign long term before that time, they'll have to sacrifice AAV. At best, they'll get $2.5-$3M on a 4-5 year deal before they reach arbitration, but it will more likely be a 1 year contract for $2M AAV for both. Army won't handcuff the team by giving them a big payday before he is forced to. If this were a rising cap environment, Thomas/Kyrou might get paid early, but those days are over for a while, especially for a team with the Cup window open. Thomas and Kyrou will simply have to wait their turn or sit out in hopes of forcing a deal. But since the Blues own their rights for several more years, they have absolutely no leverage. Sucks for them, but this is a business.
Sanford on the other hand is now due for his payday. He will get at least $3M-$4M AAV on a 3-4 year deal given his production over the past 3 years (among the top 25 producing LWs in the entire NHL at 5x5 in points per 60 since 2018-19). But if he puts up 16-17 goals this year (roughly 25 goals in a normal season), he'll get $4-$5M AAV for 3-5 years. Fans won't like it, but Sanford is a 1st line LW, and more importantly, he is a favorite of Army and Berube who plays extremely well in the Berube system.
If the Blues go deep in the playoffs, Binnington will get at least $6M - $7M AAV on a 4-5 year contract. If they reach the finals, he'll get closer to $8M.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
7 oct. 2019 à 21 h 47
Sujet:
Petro next year
Dunn does not have arbitration rights for another year, so Army can play hardball with him (similar to Barbashev) and sign Dunn for another $1.4-$1.5M for 1-2 years in order to help with the cap situation. Dunn will get paid later.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
4 oct. 2019 à 17 h 38
Sujet:
Blues 2020-21
Dunn will be forced to sign a Barbashev deal this next offseason...1 or 2 years at $1.5M per year, as he will not have arb rights until the 2021 offseason. Army won't give him that much money too early, as he'll need the cap space. He may try to get him long term for a lower AAV (i.e. $3.5M), but he won't get close to $5M AAV until his arb year.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
26 sept. 2019 à 23 h 23
Sujet:
Blues 2020 Petro
Without arb rights, I can’t see Army giving Dunn that type of deal until the 2021 offseason. He’ll also want to bring back JBouw for another 1 year deal versus moving Petro to his off side. Bortz will continue to be the 7th DMan.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
26 sept. 2019 à 23 h 14
Sujet:
Projected Lineup By Christmas
Don’t see JBouw losing his spot, not after his 2nd half and playoff performances. Gunny is the most likely to go out with an injury. Bortz will be the odd man out on most nights when all are healthy. Also, Kyrou is a long way from being physically ready, and will spend most of the year in the AHL barring multiple injuries to the Blues top 9. And Army prefers Sunny at Center with Barbie on his LW on that 4th line. Steen will be the regular on the RW, with Blais and maybe Kostin rotating in to spell Steen.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
26 sept. 2019 à 11 h 43
Sujet:
Blues 2020-21 Roster Projected
Dunn still does not have leverage (no arb rights), so they'll give him a short term contract, comparable to Barbashev. Dunn will get bigger money in another year or two. Maybe he takes a 1 year $1.5 and not a 2 year $1.5 so that he gets his arb hearing the following year. Or to your point, the Blues may pay more this offseason to lock him in for longer term at a lower AAV than he might be worth after arb (i.e. 5 years at $3.5-$4M per year). This would make it harder to sign others free agents, so I think Army plays hardball with Dunn for another year, similar to Barbie. Faulk actually gives Army more leverage in playing hardball with Dunn, as Dunn is similar to Faulk in terms of skill set (but he's not at Faulk's level yet).
Blues may need to go longer (7-8 years) with Petro to get the lower AAV of $8.5M, as he'd get much higher AAV on the outside. If Petro wants more AAV, then the Blues will limit the term. $8.5M for 8 is equal to $11.3 for 6 years. Petro may get some team to pay $11M AAV for a 5-6 year term on the outside. Not saying that that Blues will do this, but Army has a history of overpaying term length at relatively lower AAV for his favorite players (think Steen, Bergie, Sobotka, JBouw, maybe even Perron). The best way to fit Petro into the cap for the near term is to overpay term length to get lower AAV. Maybe it is only 6 years at $8.5M, but I don't see Army going to $9-$10M or more AAV on Petro.
If Allen and Steen have comparable 2019-20 seasons as they did this past year, there is no way that Army will buyout the last year of their contracts. Both were critical parts of the Stanley Cup run...Allen was a stud on the road in the back half of the year, and Steen was among the most valuable offensive defenders on the team playing on that 4th line (Sunny and Barbie getting all the credit, but Steener played some of his best hockey in years when in counted). Steen was also perhaps our best PK player. Despite being overpaid, he's still a value to the team, so Army will have no incentive to buy him out and penalize future teams with his allocated cap hit. Same with Allen...Army won't hurt the 2021-22 and future teams with the allocated cap his from any buyout.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
7 août 2019 à 18 h 36
Sujet:
Room for Barbie 15M and Maroon 19M
Not time yet to move on from Fabbri...at $900k he's still a value to the Blues relative to his talent and potential. The Blues can definitely afford to be patient with him...he'll still be a Restricted Free Agent (RFA) after this next season, and he will not be arbitration eligible, so the Blues can resign him for less than $1M if he is not back to form. Regardless, the Blues will expect him to show significant progress this year. But as a cost controlled asset, they won't likely cut him loose unless they can get value back in a trade.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
7 août 2019 à 15 h 23
Sujet:
Room for Barbie 15M and Maroon 19M
I agree completely on Maroon. I hope they don't sign him, and keep the $1.92M in reserve (which I fully expect Army to do)...or keep MacEachern on the active roster of 23, with a cap reserve of just under $1.2M.
I was merely trying to show that it could work financially to sign both Barbashev and Maroon. I hope that Maroon signs elsewhere...I think his legacy could be tarnished here if he were to sign, and then he has another rough regular season.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
7 août 2019 à 15 h 18
Sujet:
What it should look like
Where is JBow? I'd much rather see him that Borgman.
Also need to swap MacEachern and Sanford...and probably need to keep Sanford on the 2nd line anyway. I expect he'll have a breakout year, as he's extremely talented (but needs to be more consistent). More ready for a breakout than Kyrou, who I expect will spend another year in San Antonio. Kyrou was overmatched in the NHL last year, especially when given prime top 6 minutes. He'll be great...just not until 2020-21 or 2021-22.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
7 août 2019 à 15 h 8
Sujet:
A Few Changes
I love Reaves, but would much prefer Steen to Reaves on the 4th line...even with the higher salary. A diminished Steen brings so much more value to the Blues.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
24 juill. 2019 à 23 h 48
Sujet:
Opening night roster St-Louis
Barbashev does not have much leverage, so he'll get roughly $1.6M on a 1-2 year deal, or closer to (but less than) Sunny's contract on a longer term deal that buys out some of his UFA years. Eddy must be offered at least $3M per the CBA, so he'll likely get a modest raise to about $3.1M.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
24 juill. 2019 à 12 h 19
Sujet:
LGB 1920
Under the current CBA, I believe that the Blues are required to pay Edmundson at least $3.0M, which was his salary in 2018-19. Given that he is going to arbitration, they will likely settle in advance of the hearing for higher than this amount...perhaps in the $3.25-$3.5M range for a 1 year deal, or $4M+ for a longer term deal.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
24 juill. 2019 à 12 h 12
Sujet:
Blues 2019-20
My bad...I put Allen under active roster scratches (with Bortz and Fabbri), so I moved him back up in the active section. Regardless, it does not affect the available cap space. Active roster scratches count against the cap limit, same as players in the lineup. I'm assuming that the Blues will carry 21 or 22 players on the active roster for much of this coming season (versus the max of 23) as they did for much of last year to provide some additional cap space. They'll call up players from SA as needed for injury replacement, but send them down if they won't be playing regularly.
Remerciements à
Guillaume Lambert-Héon
pour l'aide à la traduction de l'anglais au français
SalarySwish
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