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suburbanrobot

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Blues de St-Louis
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Forum: Armchair-GM8 juin 2019 à 21 h 25
Sujet: Three Lines
Steen ain't gonna waive his NTC; that's a total non-starter.

I really don't like the Reimer idea; it doesn't save much. I believe there are teams out there that will take Allen for "free" (e.g. we give him away) and use the cap to sign a guy like Elliott or a similar backup for the mid-2s -- Montreal has been rumored as one.

I don't have any issues trading Edmundson's rights per say, but Schwartz is part of the long term core of this team and why would we trade him right after a cup run? Wouldn't make much sense to start blowing up the team that has proven they have what it takes to win.

The Blues are going to end up having a very boring offseason IMO -- trade Allen, lock up Binnington and the other RFAs, sign a new backup goalie, extend Petro, and hopefully add a bit of defensive depth. Gardiner would be fantastic but I don't see us going after one of the top tier FAs like that. More likely we get into that 2nd-3rd tier of FAs (Stralman would be fantastic, or Nyquist if the market is soft). The most exciting thing that could happen would be a Schenn trade but I don't know that I see it happening.
Forum: Armchair-GM26 mai 2019 à 17 h 40
Sujet: LGB For Life
I agree they are going to bring back basically the same team (which is a very good thing) but you've got a number of errors in here:

- Binnington ain't signing for 1/$3.0MM

- There is zero chance that Allen/Sanford fetch a 1st rounder, let alone a 1st rounder + a very serviceable young defenseman

- Edmundson at 1 year/$1.0 MM isn't even a valid contract -- his QO is $3.0MM, not to mention he's arbitration eligible and will get more like $4.0 through that process on a 1 year deal. Realistically he's either going to get a mid/long term contract or get his rights dealt to a team that will give him that.

- Sundqvist -- see notes on Edmundson above. Same thing applies.

- Blais, Sanford, Fabbri are all resigned in this scenario below their minimum qualifying offer.

- Maroon is a massive overpay -- maybe some team gives him $4.0MM, but that team ain't the Blues.
Forum: Armchair-GM26 mai 2019 à 17 h 19
Sujet: staying at the top
<a href="/users/brenfox31" target="_blank">@brenfox31</a> -- You are on the right track as far as I'm concerned. On the few rosters I put together I also had Elliott for 2/2.0 -- that's a totally reasonable deal if you are trading Allen and just makes a ton of sense. It's not nostalgia, just a cheap contract for a guy that can bridge the gap until the next set of goaltenders is ready for the big show.

Not every FA signing has to be flashy. I'm totally fine with Stralman, but I wonder if the Blues don't just pull Gunnarsson back for 1-2 years and $1MM less AAV. It seems like the people on this forum have forgotten how important depth is -- did we not use Gunnarsson, Bortuzzo, and even MDZ a fair bit this last year? We need at least 7 defensemen we can count on for the coming year, ideally 8...maybe Reinke is one of those, but dude has played in 1 NHL game two seasons ago. Let's pump the brakes. Pietrangelo, Dunn, JBo, Parayko, Edmundson, Bortuzzo, Stralman/Gunnarsson, and probably Reinke as the last guy in.

Personally I'd only go 1 year on Fabbri. Your number looks right. I don't think the guy above saying Fabbri doesn't return unless he takes "league min" realizes his minimum QO is $971,250 -- call it $1MM. You are giving him an extra year and another $250k. I think Fabs would take $1.25 for one year but I doubt he'd bite on that for two -- probably would need to bump to $1.5MM. If you don't want to pay Fabbri $1MM then fine, trade his rights (though I think that's awfully silly, might as well kick the tires for that price).
Forum: Armchair-GM26 mai 2019 à 10 h 48
Sujet: Blues Offseason 2019-20 v2
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>rja40</b></div><div>If you flip Schenn to Carolina, you have to get at least one roster player along with a 1st. He's a valuable commodity to whatever team has him, which makes him have more value than two picks. Gauthier and a 1st would do; however, that brings in one more RWer. We are already deep in prospects on RW, but Carolina doesn't have a LWer they'd move that I'd want. A team like Calgary would be perfect for him. If we could get Valimaki for him, you do it. If they balk at Valimaki, you move on and tell them a conference rival will have to pay.</div></div>

The idea is that the Blues are getting a roster player back, in the sense that they free up enough cap room to make a run at a guy like Skinner (or if they don't want to do a big contract, maybe Nyquist who seems like a VERY typical GMDA-style UFA). I seriously doubt Carolina is sending a 1st AND a premium prospect like Gauthier in exchange for 1 year of Schenn. I'd do Valimaki in a heartbeat but there is zero chance Calgary bites on that. You've got to be cognizant of what Schenn is going to bring in return with only 1 year left on his contract.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BeastModeUnknown</b></div><div>Schenn plays left wing, but looking at Schenn he hasn't hit a great amount of stats except for the 1 fluke 70 point season so he shouldn't make much more than 5 Million, but with the cap increase we should be able to fit him in comfortably.</div></div>

Matt Duchene is about to get somewhere in the neighborhood of 8/$9.0. Duchene is a better player, full stop. But Schenn is coming off of a Stanley Cup team (hopefully one that won!), is a couple of years younger, and has no injury concerns. Assuming he plays close to his career average next season and keeping in mind that the price of UFAs goes up every year due to cap inflation, is there any question that Schenn is going to pull 8 years and at least $7.5 AAV? Again using EW tool as a rough guide (far from perfect but at least it's an objective starting point), if he were going UFA today he'd pull 8/$9.0.

The Blues could choose to fit that in their cap if they see Schenn as a key core guy moving forward. Personally I don't -- looking down the road we have 1C and 2C on lockdown between Thomas and ROR. $7.0 (if the Blues can even get him for that) is an incredibly high spend on a 3C. I think the Blues are better off getting a 1st back this year, signing a UFA winger, and reloading the minor league clubs with talent that can continue to sustain a winning team for many years to come.
Forum: Armchair-GM25 mai 2019 à 17 h 7
Sujet: Blues Offseason 2019-20 v2
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>STLBlues17</b></div><div>Another thing to consider is that we’re almost definitely losing him in the expansion draft if we sign him. We’ll likely end up protecting:
1. Schwartz
2. Tarasenko
3. ROR
4. Thomas
5. Kyrou
6. Perron?
7. Sundqvist?
1. Pietro
2. Parayko
3. Dunn</div></div>

Very true, but not sure how much it really changes the calculus on a new deal. There aren't many teams where he'd be part of the Top 3 so not sure that there's a lot of value in flipping his rights -- he's not getting protected anywhere. If anything it depresses his trade market. I guess Blues could just get him on a 1 year deal (arb if necessary) and then reevaluate after the expansion draft.

edit: Keep in mind that unless the Blues extend Pietrangelo this offseason, they won't have anything to protect as he'll be a UFA. That could allow them to protect a guy like Edmundson if they so chose and also resign Pietrangelo to his long term deal.
Forum: Armchair-GM25 mai 2019 à 16 h 53
Sujet: Blues Offseason 2019-20 v2
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>STLBlues17</b></div><div>I’ve seen the EW projection which is honestly the reason I want to trade him. He’s played close to 300 games and we know who he is and will he going forward. He’s proficient at 1v1 defense and brings a lot of toughness but he really struggles with turnovers and penalties and has poor underlying analytics. This would be okay if he had offensive upside, but with 4 full seasons we can say he doesn’t. I’m all for keeping him at his current price because he’s had a great playoffs, but if he demands this much I’d look to trade and maximize value.</div></div>

I wonder if the Blues could get him for a shorter term (3-4 years) at closer to $3.5 AAV. That puts him out to his late 20s and if he performs well he's in line for a big raise either from the Blues or someone else. I'd happily take him for 3/$3.5. As it stands I agree that it's uncomfortable, but I don't think it's a bad bet.
Forum: Armchair-GM25 mai 2019 à 16 h 28
Sujet: Blues Offseason 2019-20 v2
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>STLBlues17</b></div><div>This is interesting, but I’d say your way high on Edmundson. If he demands that much money, I’d trade him and find another defenseman who brings what he does.</div></div>

Agree it seems high on Edmundson, but it's a reasonable bet. Before this season, no brainer he would have been worth every cent of this contract and then some. This is a league in which guys like Marco Scandella, Erik Gudbranson, etc get $4MM deals. The EW contract prediction tool has him at 6 yr/$4.7MM and to this point it has been undervaluing players. I think it's too high on Edmundson but not by much.

Overall could end up being a massive bargain, and if not it's not the kind of deal that's unmovable. Really it just comes down to the question of whether you see Edmundson as part of the core defense moving forward or not? Lock him in now and extend Pietrangelo, and you have your top 4 set for years to come.