SalarySwishSalarySwish
Avatar

southpark_writer

Membre depuis
21 mars 2023
Équipe favorite
Oilers d'Edmonton
Deuxième équipe favorite
Lightning de Tampa Bay
Messages dans les forums
57
Messages par jour
0.1
Forum: Armchair-GM13 mai 2023 à 4 h 39
Sujet: Pittsburgh rumor
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>I didn't say anything about Ceci!?

:tearsofjoy

You post ****ty trades constantly and then fight straw men in response, lol.

But since YOU brought up Ceci, here's something to chew on:

Ceci played 37.4% v Elites this year, which was 12th most in the league among defensemen with at least 200 min v Elites. His 493 total TOI v Elites was 15th most in the league. So he was playing pretty much the hardest minutes possible, that's an indisputable fact.

So if he sucks - as you've implied by trading him for nothing - you would expect him to have performed very poorly, as he was constantly being hard matched against the leagues best forwards. However, he finished the season with a 50.23 CF%, a 51.06 xGF%, a 50.11 SCF% and a 52.88 HDCF%. Those are very good numbers when you account for quality of competition.

In the previous season he played the exact same role and performed similarly. He's not flashy and doesn't produce much offense, but he does the hardest job in the league for just $3.25M and does it well. That's got value to NHL GM's, even if not to you.</div></div>

I agree with all your data regarding the % vs elites is exactly what PuckIQ states.

However, your CF%, xGF%m etc. is not evaluating his time vs elites. Also those metric’s are much more important for forwards.

Look at his DFA/60, DFA/60 adjusted for relative comps, and DFF%RC. And assess it based on time vs elites, mid comp, and replacement players. This is where the problem begins. DFF%RC I think is the most relevant, and his is the worst on the team, with Kulak second worse.

By these metrics, Nurse didnt do well either, although him paired with Ceci likely had a lot of effect.

They also show that Ekholm is an absolute beast, and likely likely props up Bouchs numbers.

Based on this data, Ekholm Bouch are by far our top pairing, Nurse needs help especially since he likes to be more of a rover,, and Broberg/Deshnarais can survive sheltered minutes.

Without upgrading the D, we are wasting the best offence the league has seen in almost 3 decades.
Forum: Armchair-GM11 mai 2023 à 19 h 4
Sujet: Pittsburgh rumor
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>fil97</b></div><div>imho it depends on what the new GM thinks of campbell, if they feel like he is the solution in net as the main guy with desmith as the backup we might even do smith for campbell plus the second, if he isn't that good don't think we would take that deal because of the cap hit. obviously the first and Holloway are good incentives but I think the new gm is going all in for the next 2 seasons so it wouldn't make much sense unless there are other moves involved later.

I'm not too familiar with Campbells game unfortunately to give you a clearer idea didn't really follow him with kings or oilers. he wasn't bad with Toronto but not sure if that was only cuz of the contract year</div></div>

Agreed. I have been thinking it would be hard to get rid of Campbell because of the cap hit. A story came out yesterday about the Penguins and Campbell, and that they may try to bring in Dubas who has a history with Campbell. It could be just fantasy.

It seems to me that Campbell's issue this year was likely mental. He has gone through multiple equipment changes. His confidence appears to have evaporated. That being said, if it was not for Campbell in the 50 minutes he played in the LA series and won the game, we may have been eliminated. Down 3-0 in the game, it was an amazing comeback that he was a big part of.
Forum: Armchair-GM11 mai 2023 à 18 h 54
Sujet: Pittsburgh rumor
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>Edmonton declines all trades. Especially that Pittsburgh deal!</div></div>

By some analytics and stats, Yamamoto is worth weigh more. The problem with analytics from the very start, is that it has a bias towards skill, and eliminates other facets of a true game. Yamamoto has skill, but his size, injuries, inconsistent performance are factors not evaluated with analytics, but easy to see.

Based on Cap amount, to sign Bouch and some other 3rd/4th liners (Bjugstad etc), 2 off either Ceci/Yamo/Foegle, or Kulak have to be dealt. And Kulak and Foegele are the ones I would keep.

In my opinion, unless we win a cup (or 2) by then end of McDavids 3 more years, he will likely not resign (along with Drai). So trading away magic beans is miniscule to ice the best possible team the next 2 years.
Forum: Armchair-GM11 mai 2023 à 18 h 43
Sujet: Pittsburgh rumor
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>Edmonton declines all trades. Especially that Pittsburgh deal!</div></div>

That is your usual response as you are in love with Ceci. In his first year, he played much better. But he has certainly regressed in the second half of the season, and has way too many mistakes in the playoffs to be a first pairing D. He would be a great third pairing D but is too expensive, he may be a very good second pairing D [which by minutes this series he already is]. If we are assuming that Ekholm/Bouch are the de facto second pairing, then Ceci is a problem. Is not a good enough 1st pairing D, and a too expensive 3rd pairing. So he doesn't fit in.

Nurse needs someone with him with more defensive skills, and that is certainly not Bouch.
Forum: Armchair-GM4 mai 2023 à 23 h 5
Sujet: Solid experienced D
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>RedWing9119</b></div><div>It sad watching you try to shut down conversations with these silly numbers. Am I supposed to be intimidated? All your bullsh*t really says is Foegele is a good third liner who struggles to maintain his production against stiffer competition. He's playing behind 2 of the best lines in the world. I never said he was a cap dump but I definitely wouldn't give up anything significant for him.</div></div>


Based on Puckiq data, against elite (first line competition), Foegele has a GF% of 58.3% which is 6th on the Oilers.

Larkin is 42.9% against elite comp. Perron is the highest Wing at 55.6%.

So Foegele is not struggling against stiff competition in any way. He just doesn’t get PP time, or enough time in general given our top 6. But the data supports that he should be on the second line over Yamamoto.
Forum: Armchair-GM4 mai 2023 à 22 h 54
Sujet: Solid experienced D
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>Warren Foegele is among the best in the league at generating scoring chances.

[A little context for my stats. I took full season 5v5 stats and applied two filters: forwards only and minimun TOI of 495 minutes. That leaves us with the top 385 players by minutes played. Why 385? Because there are 32 teams and each with 12 regular forwards. 32 x 12 = 384, so pretty close. This way we can divide results by "1st line" (top 96 players), "2nd line" (97-192), etc. All stats are expressed as "per 60 minutes" to equalize for TOI differences.]

So here's how Foegele stacks up:

G/60: 0.93 (84th, tied with Panarin) 1st line rate
P/60: 2.09 (85th, tied with Tavares) 1st line rate
S/60: 9.36 (50th, tied with Cozens) 1st line rate
xG/60: 1.16 (9th, tied with Tavares) elite 1st line rate
SCF/60: 10.90 (23rd) elite 1st line rate
HDCF/60: 6.19 (8th), elite 1st line rate
Tka/60: 3.63 (3rd), elite 1st line rate
Hits/60: 7.11 (108th tied with Kreider) high 2nd line rate

Now consider that he spent just 8% of his TOI with McDavid this year. Foegele is a value contract.</div></div>

Agree, and any team who focuses on Analytics will be interested. If Oil keeps him, I would suspect he is on the second line next year.

Would like to keep him, but if we want 2 solid RD to replace Ceci and Deshnarais, someone has to go.

Based on the LA series and the Vegas game, spending assets on better D seems the way to go, especially in the playoffs.
Forum: Armchair-GM2 mai 2023 à 14 h 54
Sujet: Escrow deal reached
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>Oh, I understand the term/AAV balance. I just don't think there's any value in signing non-core player to term if they're past their prime. There are always more bottom-6 types willing to join a Cup Contender on the cheap each summer as a means of rebuilding their value and potentially getting a ring.

And you ESPECIALLY don't want to be trading 24 year olds in order to accommodate a long term contract for a 30+ player.</div></div>

Janmark is only 30. He was paid $2.7-2.8 multiple years before coming. Don’t see signing him for $1.1M for a few years as risky.
Same with Ryan at league minimum. He has been worth his current deal, and has always been a late bloomer.

You likely think Bjugstad is an overpay, but he could move to 2nd line when they keep Connor/Leon together.

I like Yamo, but his injuries/concussion is a concern, he is streaky and inconsistent and his size punishes him in playoff. Other than in game 6, he has been awol in the playoffs. Would prefer Bjugstad at $1.9-2.0 than Yamo