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jfalstaff

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Maple Leafs de Toronto
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Forum: Armchair-GM7 févr. 2019 à 13 h 8
Sujet: Marner Bridge Keep Gardiner
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Philvr</b></div><div>Unfortunately Gardiner will get more we will definitely miss him</div></div>

I was using an 8 year deal to get the contract value up to $42m. That'd be competitive with 5x8m, 6x7m, and 7x6.5m offers, which is what I'd think he'd go for, and might be the sort of thing he'd sign for the sake of stability &amp; security. If he wants to make lots of money fast and hopes to be able to extend his career into his mid/late 30s with another big deal, it doesn't appeal. But it's within the realm of things a pending UFA would consider, I think.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Bcarlo25</b></div><div>If Marner is going to sign for 8, it will like;y be for 1 year, and then he gets the same deal as Matthews the year after.

Kapanen is having a statistically similar season to Reinhart last year, who got 3.75 for 2 years. Cap is up, so 4 seems to make sense for 2 years for him. Honestly it could be a bit more, he’ll probably ask for 5x3</div></div>

I like that Marner deal. It's really getting through 2019-20 that we need to do.
Forum: Armchair-GM1 déc. 2018 à 22 h 3
Sujet: Nylander
This definitely what we're on a trajectory toward... and I could certainly see Marner and Matthews both about $.5-1m higher than what you've got. Hopefully Kapanen just wants to get under contract and/or the other GMs don't wake up the possibility of using offer sheets (I would).

I hope Dubas makes a priority of moving those questionable Lou-era contracts this summer. Maybe a deep playoff run will make other GMs look kindly on Brown and Zaitsev and will make Gardiner more interested in staying with the team than exploring a giant payday. $6.6m (Zaitsev + Brown) would probably get it done with Jake if he is at all interested in staying... and it'd give the Leafs a couple picks and prospects that might develop into replacements for the likes of Hyman, Kapanen, and Johnsson, when the time comes.
Forum: Armchair-GM14 oct. 2018 à 14 h 23
Sujet: TML - Core at 45 cap re-sign Gardiner
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Random2152</b></div><div>You are right. You can get guys for less. May I present you to: Tyler Ennis... Oh **** right he is meh at best. For what they bring, 2 million is cheap. You are delusional if you think otherwise. Look at how much Wilson is being paid.
And for what they do? Have you any idea what they do? Something like a third of the leafs goals this year would not have happened if not for them. That is why I said you aren't watching the games. 2 million is extremely cheap for what they bring, and they are vital to this teams success.</div></div>

No, what Tavares, Matthews, et al bring is vital to team success. What Brown and Hyman do is play a complementary role -- but it's just a role. Others can fill it. And they will! Hate to be the bearer of bad news, but neither will be re-signed by the Leafs after their current contracts expire.
Forum: Armchair-GM14 oct. 2018 à 13 h 39
Forum: Armchair-GM13 oct. 2018 à 12 h 36
Sujet: Willowkink - Nylander trade Carolina side
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Gofnut999</b></div><div>
Also, this is a win now team, the pieces are in place to make a cup run. If they are going to trade an asset like Nylander you’d think it would be for a top 4 pairing RD now as opposed to one who might be a couple years from now. They can just wait for Liljgren if that’s the case.</div></div>

Liljegren coming along is why, if they absolutely must trade Nylander, I would hope they wouldn't limit returns to RHDs. They're set up to win now, sure, but their window is just opening. I think Dubas is a progressive enough GM that he'd see trading Nylander, a player they could have for 8 years, for 1-2 years of a good top-4 D as a waste. If they don't get lucky before, say, Faulk's contract expires, they're in tough for years 3-8 of contention -- no Nylander, no asset you'd get for him, all to increase your Cup chances by, like, .5% for a couple years. So, instead of that, I'd use Nylander to reload the high-end of the prospect pool -- Kadri's and Rielly's contracts will, eventually, expire, and when that happens they're not going to find replacements among their late 1sts and 2nd rounders.


<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Gofnut999</b></div><div>I think Trouba would make a lot of sense for both teams. But with him being unlikely to sign a long term deal it would be a big gamble.</div></div>

As a one-for-one trade modeled on the Jones deal, that's one that makes sense to me.

But, TBH, my preference is still that they just re-sign him and see if they can just run teams over with a top-five center, a top-twenty center, a high-end second-line center on the 3rd line, and two top-20 wingers roving around. Just thinking through what'd be doable and beneficial should things head south with Nylander.
Forum: Armchair-GM12 oct. 2018 à 21 h 40
Sujet: Willowkink - Nylander trade Carolina side
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Gofnut999</b></div><div>As in those teams are not willing to trade them. Had nothing to do with value.</div></div>

Of course teams that recently gave up players like Nylander to acquire Sergachev and Jones aren't going to trade them away.

But there are now an new generation of players<em> like</em> Jones (aged 21, under 200 GP when traded) and Sergachev (18yo, 4GP) that would be the likely return for Nylander.

So, no, not exactly Jones, Sergachev, or whoever -- but not vets with soon expiring contracts either, as they're the sort of players who <em>haven't</em> been the centerpieces of deals for players like Nylander. There are teams with talented young defensemen who haven't yet established themselves as top-pairing (or good top-4) players who would want an elite young winger, and, if Nylander's traded, that's what it'd be for, I'd think.

Noah Dobson or Ryan Pulock from NYI, VAN's Quinn Hughes or Olli Juolevi, VGK's Erik Brannstrom, or COL's Cale Maker would all be the sorts of players I'd put at the center of any deal... Except for maybe Hughes and Maker, they'd all need picks and/or other prospects to come with. None of them would make much of an impact until Rielly's contract is expiring, but a deal built around some of them would make sense.

Anyhow, if Toronto wants a vet, they'll get one at the deadline and it won't be for Nylander.
Forum: Armchair-GM12 oct. 2018 à 16 h 56
Sujet: Willowkink - Nylander trade Carolina side
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Gofnut999</b></div><div>It’s pretty fair value. The lack of term on Faulk and Ferland does bring value down. But it’s not far off.

I know, i know. Leafs fan. You think Hamilton, Aho, and Bean is the value.....it. Isn’t.

Sorry you are not getting<strong> Seth Jones</strong>, Miro Heiskanen, Brandon Montour, Brett Pesce, Colton Paryko, <strong>Mikael Segachev</strong> or any of the others that Leafs fans keep proposing.

Faulk, Spurgeon, Tanev, Braun are they best of what is actually avaialble. If that does not work for them. Then sign Nylander or let him sit at home.</div></div>

Weird that you picked for your list of 'definitely not what you get for a Nylander!' the two young defensemen who went the other way when forwards of Nylander's talent/age were most recently available.
Forum: Armchair-GM12 juill. 2018 à 15 h 2
Sujet: Core at Not-Too-Team-Friendly Deals
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SirCharles</b></div><div>On 6-8 year deals I think Nylander is at 6-6.5 and Marner is at 7-7.5 , if they signed this summer.
I’m unsure why people are saying 9-10 million per year for Marner. He is not Kucherov or Draistal or Kane... he has played 2 years with 1 20 goal season and a career high of 69 points. That don’t get you Kucherov money. I compare him, cap hit concerned, to Pasternak and Gaudreau and considering the cap has been raised since they were extended I think 7-7.5 is market value, I would be shocked if he gets anymore then 7.5</div></div>


Here are the comparisons I was looking at. It's by PPG, and I include the ages, since Marner's NHL productivity is coming at an earlier age than a lot of his production peers.

Pastrnak — 123 pts in 173GP (18-20yo) = .71 PPG. Signs after expiration of RFA contract for 8.89% C.H., for 6 years.

Taylor Hall — 95 points in 126 GP (19-20yo) = .75 PPG. Signs after 2nd season for 10% of the cap, for 7 years.

Vladimir Tarasenko = 135 points in 179GP (21-23 yo) = .75 PPG. Signs after contract ELC expires for 10.27% of Cap, for 8 years.

Bobby Ryan — 131 points in 168 GP (20-22yo) = .78PPG. Signs after expiration of ELC and holding out into September for 8.59% of cap, for 5 years.

Eberle — 119 points in 147 GP (20-21 yo) = .81 PPG. Signs after 2nd season season at 10% of Cap, for 6 years,

Mitch goes here. 130 points in 159 games (19-20 yo) = .82 PPG.

Gaudreau — 142 pts in 159 GP (21-22yo) = .89 PPG. Signs after ELC expires and holding out into Oct. for 9.25% of Cap, for 6 years.

So... I don't know. If it's Gaudreau, who was underpaid, you're at $7.5m on a deal that doesn't eat up many UFA years. But Marner's doing it younger, like Eberle and Hall, and I don't see the Leafs wanting to go less than 7 years. Nor do I see them dragging this out into next fall, since they'll be ripe for an offer sheet.

So, I'm figuring an Eberle and Hall sorta deal -- 10% of an ~82.5m cap for 6/7 years, and coming up with $8.25m as a starting point. Then, what would a Tarasenko-length deal (eating UFA years) be for a guy who's been more productive and done it younger? About $9m, or about 11% of the Cap.