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Randominoe

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18 janv. 2022
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Canucks de Vancouver
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Forum: Armchair-GM12 févr. 2022 à 1 h 28
Sujet: Kravtsov No Miller
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Reason</b></div><div>I did consider that Kravtsov's value could be reduced due his current situation with the Rangers. With that said, I'm sure the Rangers have had opportunity to move the player and haven't done so yet.
Klimovich is a decent prospect however he's not currently at Kravtsov's level and he may never be. Vancouver is getting the more polished player who is currently a better prospect and a more sure thing. If JR thinks this team is only 2 years away from being a playoff team Kravstov also fits that timeline much better than the raw Klimovich.
I think the value is fair, maybe even slightly tilted in Vancouver's favour, however if Kravstov could be had for less than market value I feel he would have been moved by now, and there would likely be many teams interested.</div></div>

Fair enough, personally I think that it is too early to tell how Klimovich will turn out and we should wait one more season of AHL experience before we hedge our bets on him in this sort of manner. Still agree that Kravtsov would be an interesting acquisition with the current and previous Russian ties to this organization.
Forum: Armchair-GM8 févr. 2022 à 18 h 52
Sujet: Bruins TDL
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Dekes</b></div><div>i totally understand your point of view in this aswell as obviously any fan wants the most out of there assets but it goes both way because if van expects the fullest out of what they can get for miller if a team is desperate then boston is also going to value debrusk to his fullest value if a team was desperate, usually what tends to happen is the GM's will have to meet down the middle
Van's Gm will have wanted more but he will got enough assets he is satisfied with and knows he got equal value but no the overpay he intended to get and B's gm or whoever will have gave a lot maybe more then they wanted too but are satisfied knowing miller could be the final touch to them potentially touching the stanley cup.

But ya like you said we aren't the GM's we are simply just fans who wish the best for our team all of us have different views on how we want our team built i don't agree with a lot of B's fan on this website even though we cheer for the same team. personally i want a more gritty, hard hitting, old style team with keeping the skill just to our top 6 and 2 of our dmen and my big targets are guys like lindholm, Dillon, Giroux, Deslauriers, Laughton, Lowry, Paul, crouse, Kubalik, R smith but other B fans want a more skilled team and go for Miller, Chych, Hertl, Gio, Klingberg, Konecy, Garland etc.

This was a very productive discussion some key points were shown from both sides and it didn't end in a heated battle of who is wrong or who is right just simply a good strong discussion i like it, ill definitely be more open to listen and discussing future trades with you as you are much more open minded compared to a lot of other people on this page</div></div>

Same to you my friend! Glad we acknowledged and respected each other’s perspective, considering like you said there are some very trolly individuals on this platform.

Still hate you for 2011 though let’s be clear on that 😉
Forum: Armchair-GM8 févr. 2022 à 18 h 15
Sujet: Bruins TDL
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>hanson493</b></div><div>Without commenting on everything individually here:

it comes down to supply and demand right as well as need for a team to move a player vs can they keep someone. I think vegas is going to make another underwhelming move and trade marchy or smith for a 3rd or something to just straight up clear cap space to bring eichel back. this is going to lessen other players values until vegas makes a move because its all about price.

Realistically speaking JT Miller is not the player that would command 2 firsts and an A Level prospect with only a year and a half left on his deal. hes been a ppg player with vancouver which i mean is extremely valuable. But teams dont just give out their best players/prospects/picks like that. they will diversify it and make it more equitable for the team acquiring to also take them on. not many teams can afford to simply gut their top picks and best prospect from the farm. your playoff contenders i think really only a couple teams would be in on miller anyways. IF he gets dealt its going to look something like young nhl roster player (debrusk/chytil) someone like that, a 1st either this year or next year, a 2nd in the opposite year, and then a prospect, 2nd could become a 3rd if you add in another prospect, or a 1st if you put conditions on it like if they win the cup or something. Thats equating to a 1st, a 2nd, a roster player, and a prospect or 2. thats still ALOT of value to ALOT of teams.</div></div>

I think what you are saying is a fair argument, but one could argue that Fabian Lysell is not an untouchable prospect by any means. Sure he has proven himself as an effective junior player with the potential to become an NHL player but I would not go as far to say he is blue-chip or even a top-100 prospect in the NHL right now. With that said, the Bruins would indeed be mortgaging the future heavily if they met the demands I have set for teams interested in acquiring Miller, but they get to make the decision if these last two years of their competitive window is worth a few years of surefire misery (considering the lack of blue-chip prospects and early draft picks they would be left with). I stand by the evaluation I have placed on Miller for 1.5 seasons, but I could see us holding him until the offseason and getting something closer to 2.5 first-round picks of value, once more teams are in the position to make offers and drive the price up.
Forum: Armchair-GM8 févr. 2022 à 17 h 35
Sujet: Bruins TDL
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Dekes</b></div><div>That would be the smart thing to do but I think the reason guys like garland, miller, boeser are even being considered in trade talks is due to the need for cap space
Canucks currently have 2.85 mill in cap while also having hamonic and sutter on LTIR, they will need to resign Boeser and Motte this offseason and they have no big contracts coming off the books

i see myers and hamonic near immovable unless cancuks retain but no shot canucks retain on myers when they are trying to clear cap not pay for a player to be on another team
poolman's contract would be tough to move and you will get pennys to the dollar for him at best
Moving pearson screws over their forward depth with no true replacement and he is on a relatively good contract for what he does so i don't see management wanting to move him

in the next 2 offseasons they have to re-sign miller, boeser who will probably both warrent a 7-8.5 mill contract and horvat probably around 6- 7.5 mill contract and in those 2 offseasons no big contracts except hamonic's 3 mill and luongo's 3 mill recapture come off the books now also you have to play the factor that canucks definitely need some big improvements on the defence outside of OEL who will probably start declining in the next few years and his contract will also then become immovable and then also quinn hughes canucks lack another dman who should be played in the top4

so in 2 years they clear around 31.15 mill in contracts which is a lot of cap
heres canucks needs
Resign Miller 7.5 mill
Resign Boeser 7.5 mill
Resign Horvat 6.5 mill
Resign Hoglaner 4 mill minimum if he doesn't completely breakout and become a good top 6 scorer and warrant more
Resign Motte 2 mill
Resign Rathbone 1.1 mill few other bottom line/ pair and depth guys too you might want to resign so add an extra 1.5 mill minimum there
now what else does van need to add to compete
1. Back up goalie
2. 2 Top 4 dmen
3. 2 forwards either 3rd or 4th liners

so minus all those players that need to be resigned that leaves van with 1.05 mill to sign a back up goalie, depth forwards and 2 top 4 dmen even if you clear myers cap 7.05 mill still isn't enough to fill all those holes add on that canucks don't have the greatest prospect pool so that can internally fill there holes they need to clear cap

i know miller is great and definitely deserves a value around 2-3 1sts but canucks are in deep cap **** and teams will take advantage of that look at vegas, vegas is gonna get minimal returns on martinez, dadonov, or smith due to the fact they need to move cap.
If canucks wait till next season to move miller his value will drop no matter how well he plays as it's no longer a question that cancuks will need to move one of horvat or miller just so they can have a full 21 man roster that can actually compete not to mention they are UFA's and that will hinder their value slightly aswell

Right now Miller's value is currently at it's highest but if they set the price to high and to out of reach for teams that do want to acquire him they will pay the price and lose out on value

atleast if they clear miller's 5.25 now and avoid having to pay 7+ mill that leaves them with around 14.05 mill to work with while also acquiring a 1st a young player a B tier prospect and a 3rd or 2nd

they can have a top 6 of Bo, Petey, Garland, Boeser, Hoglander and then that leaves them with 14 mill to acquire 2 good dmen which they need badly and also have cap left over to get an extra solid 3rd liner and a good backup goalie they will be a much more competive team there rather then if they stay in this cap crunch to long and get greedy in trade and then have no depth or solid top 4 RHD's and could potentially ruin their best years at competing</div></div>

Wow, first off I want to say I appreciate your thorough response to the discussion. With that said, I don't see things as direly as you do. As a Canucks fan, I think we should enter a 2-year retool, attempting to ramp up a 3-year competitive window in 2023-24 (revolving around Garland's favorable contract). The way I see it is that the appropriate value for Miller for 1.5 seasons (rental PLUS full season of value) is 3.5 first-round picks with no retention and 4 first-round picks with retention. I can see the argument that once we decide to hold onto Miller until the offseason, the appropriate value drops to 2 first-round picks, so we should be willing to accept anything more than that at this deadline, but on the other side of the coin there is a chance that Miller increases his trade value with his post-deadline play, as well as the fact that more teams will be in the Miller sweepstakes in the offseason compared to the single-digit number of suitors for him now, meaning that there is opportunity to receive overpayment for him above 2 first-round picks.

As for the overall cap situation, we have Luongo and Sutter coming off this offseason which leaves us at a relative net neutral cap situation next season to this one, and without any idea how negotiations with Boeser will play out I think we aren't in the situation of having to trade Miller at this deadline outright to save ourselves in the short-term.

At the end of the day, none of us on this platform are NHL GMs so all is speculation and fan opinion, but I appreciate this constructive discussion so far.
Forum: Armchair-GM8 févr. 2022 à 14 h 7
Sujet: Bruins TDL
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Dekes</b></div><div>ya sorry miller ain't getting an A tier prospect plus 2 firsts late or not, we all know he will be leaving in free agency teams will wait till then or till when he forces himself outta van because they aren't a strong enough team to make a deep run in playoffs or when miller realizes van most likely can't give him the extension he wants and then he will also most likely force himself out</div></div>

I don't think it is going to go down this way, Miller has no power in this situation since his contract is completely tradeable (No NTC). If we don't get the proper value at this deadline then I hope we hold on to him until the offseason or next trade deadline when more teams will be competing for him, as well as having more ice time to develop his value, and also the price coming down from 3.5 firsts to 1.5/2 firsts. As I mentioned in the above comment, if a team wants to acquire miller at this deadline they are going to pay the rental price PLUS the entire next season price, which combined (based off comparables) is about 3.5 first-round picks.
Forum: Armchair-GM8 févr. 2022 à 14 h 3
Sujet: Bruins TDL
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>hanson493</b></div><div>I like JT Miller I really do, would be a solid add to the team, but in no real world scenarios are the bruins or any team for that matter giving up the equivalent of 3.5 first round picks. the above trade is likely the best offer the bruins would realistically put forward. For that price you can keep miller. Debrusk doesnt have to push his QO. if he gets a shot at legit minutes to maximize his earnings potential he would be stupid not to exercise that vs going straight to the QO. Long term situation would be more worthwhile to Debrusk that short term money. Studnicka has been absolutely solid in the AHL and I think it would be a mistake to trade him but at the same time you gotta give to get something. Bruins arent trading their top prospect and b2b firsts in 2 of the deepest drafts for miller. i just dont see any team doing it. just doesnt make sense to overpay when theres other much cheaper equally as good options on the market.</div></div>

I understand what you're saying, and I agree to some extent. I don't feel paying 3.5 firsts for Miller would be an overpay, almost every situation where you see a top player being traded in a similar situation to Miller's the team acquiring said player ends up the winner in the long term. The only way I see us getting a reasonable package for Miller is if more than one team puts their money where their mouth is and a bidding war ensues and we get to this echelon of offers. I hope that if we don't get at least 3 firsts worth of value for Miller that we hold onto him until the offseason, let him develop his value even further on our team and then trade him in the offseason or next deadline. At that point, the price obviously won't be 3.5 firsts so teams will be more inclined to make a deal with the Canucks, and the buyers won't be limited to contenders.

If you want miller for a rental season AND a full season, you are paying those prices put together, which comparables show is equivalent to 3.5 first-round picks give or take.