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Forum: Mock-Draft10 avr. à 15 h 7
Sujet: Mock with some Hot Takes Top 50 With Big Analysis
Celebrini should be no. 1 pick. Some things Demidov is doing in the MHL won't work in the North America. NHL D-men would simply hit him.

I think it was Blackhawks' GM who said they would prefer center as their top pick. With very limited number of candidates Lindstrom (who plays both wing and center) could be their guy. But when Lindstrom was out his team performed very well anyway. It might end similar as with Dach.

I assume teams will perfer D-men over forwards. D-men are usually harder to get and weaker drafts are a chance to get D-men at reasonable price. Parekh will be top-10 pick.

Chernyshov does one thing right and that is his first step when he separates himself from D-men. And that's basically it. Whoever drafts him in the 1st round might be very disappointed in the end.

Greentree has awkward skating technique, but he should be ahead of Stiga, Bednarik and Emery all day long. He should be top-6 NHL winger, which is not guaranteed for Stiga and Bednarik.

Spencer Gill could really end as borderline 1st/2nd round pick.

Goalie candidates for 2nd round could be Gidlof, Vinni and Moysevich.
Forum: Mock-Draft9 avr. à 1 h 3
Sujet: Players worth 1st round pick
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Kyle_Okposo_Lover</b></div><div>Theres a clear top 12. Then a few bubble guys and that's it. Id add Bednarik to this and sub out Gridin, Hage, Boisvert and arguably Letourneau, that's it.

Any team drafting in the second half should move out of the pick</div></div>

Sure, you can slot in Bednarik, Parascak, Mews etc. I would also argue Letourneau, Brandsegg-Nygard and some other guys are 2nd rounders on average year. These guys at least have "something", nobody is completely average player. Letourneau is 6ft6 RC. Brandsegg-Nygard is successful in Allsvenskan. Boisvert is 6ft2 C who plays all-around NHL-style. Sennecke looks like year younger Calum Ritchie. Connelly is excellent skater. Gridin is good scorer at average NHL height (6ft1). Hage is 6ft1 RC from well respected Chicago Steel program.
It's not much, just something.
Forum: Mock-Draft6 avr. à 2 h 46
Forum: Mock-Draft1 févr. à 11 h 19
Sujet: Z0ras Midseason 2024 Rankings
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>Connelly's current draft profile (6'1" 160 lbs) is really not as much of a ding as you many think. Especially when you consider that he is one of the best skaters in his draft class. He is not someone where injury risk will be an unusually high factor. If anything, making defenders miss is one of his better attributes.

He was hurt two nights ago on a fluky play where he was spun around into the goal post (turns out there was no major injury). But it did exemplify his willingness and ability to skate into high traffic areas. As did his goal moments prior.

Also, he probably enters NHL around 6'1" 180 lbs. Size would not be a problem.

Here are some notable names and their CSS listed height/weights from there draft years. How many of them did you disqualify before their draft?

Johnny Gaudreau (2011): 5'6" -- 137 lbs
Reilly Smith (2009): 6'0" -- 157 lbs
Brayden Point (2014): 5'10" -- 160 lbs
Mitch Marner (2015): 5'11" -- 160 lbs
Joel Farabee (2018): 6'0" -- 162 lbs

Nikolaj Ehlers (2014): 5'11" -- 162 lbs
Nikita Kucherov (2011): 5'10" -- 163 lbs
Cole Caufield (2019): 5'7" -- 163 lbs
Artturi Lehkonen (2013): 5'10" -- 163 lbs
Elias Pettersson (2017): 6'1" -- 164 lbs

Clayton Keller (2016): 5'10" -- 164 lbs
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (2011): 6'0" -- 164 lbs
Ridly Greig (2020): 5'11" -- 164 lbs
Alex DeBrincat (2016): 5'7" -- 165 lbs
Teuvo Teravainen (2012): 5'11" -- 165 lbs

Bobby Brink (2019): 5'8" -- 165 lbs
Oliver Bjorkstrand (2013): 5'11" -- 166 lbs
Vladislav Namestnikov (2011): 5'11" -- 166 lbs
Nick Cousins (2011): 5'10" -- 166 lbs
David Pastrnak (2014): 6’0″ -- 167 lbs

Kent Johnson (2021): 6'1" -- 167 lbs
William Nylander (2014): 5'11" -- 169 lbs
Jordan Kyrou (2016): 6'0" -- 169 lbs
Carter Verhaeghe (2013): 6'0" -- 170 lbs
Robby Fabbri (2014): 5’10″ -- 170 lbs

Lukas Reichel (2020): 6'0" -- 170 lbs
Logan Stankoven (2021): 5'8" -- 170 lbs
Sebastian Aho (2015): 5'11" -- 172 lbs
Nick Schmaltz (2014): 5'11" -- 172 lbs
Kyle Connor (2015): 6'1" -- 172 lbs

Morgan Frost (2017): 5'10" -- 173 lbs
Trevor Zegras (2019): 6'0" -- 173 lbs
Mathew Barzal (2015): 5'11" -- 175 lbs
Matthew Beniers (2021): 6'1" -- 175 lbs
Pavel Buchnevich (2013): 6'1" -- 177 lbs

Cole Perfetti (2020): 5'10" -- 177 lbs
JT Compher (2013): 5'11" -- 177 lbs
Connor Zary (2020): 6'0" -- 177 lbs
Wyatt Johnston (2021): 6'1" -- 178 lbs
Nico Hischier (2017): 6'1" -- 178 lbs

Warren Foegele (2014): 6'0" -- 178 lbs
Yegor Chinakhov (2020): 6'0" -- 178 lbs
Seth Jarvis (2020): 5'9" -- 179 lbs
Jared McCann (2014): 6'0" -- 179 lbs
Thomas Novak (2015): 6'0" -- 179 lbs</div></div>

Less than you think. For example, here is my 2020 list: https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/371148?post_id=1802431 . As I remember in 2021 I was relatively high on Beniers (center) and relatively low on Johnson (winger). I probably wasn't particullarly high on Stankoven. Due to cancelled OHL season in 2020/21 Johnston didn't play, so he wasn't on my list.

I'm not here to fight, I just find it funny. Don't marry a certain prospect ;)
Forum: Mock-Draft1 févr. à 2 h 43
Sujet: Z0ras Midseason 2024 Rankings
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Z0ra</b></div><div>When Connor got injured he fell in a similar way. He's 6'1'' 183 lbs. Size doesn't really matter, given Connellys skill and the current scope of the NHL, where smaller players are finding success, it makes me believe that his size isn't a problem.</div></div>

It's all about the size difference. If NHL forward has 190lbs and NHL D-man has 220lbs, D-man will win 70% of puck battles and 90% of body-on-body battles. If heavier D-man uses his stick to create moment of inertia on lighter forward, forward has no chance. What he can do is just to learn how to fall down to reduce a chance of injury. In Connelly's case it was unfortunate he hit the pipe with his leg. But if you have 20 lbs less than opponent and you're going deep into a triangle with a goalie and D-man, you're asking for a trouble. It might be attractive, but it often cost you a lot.
Forum: Mock-Draft28 janv. à 1 h 17
Sujet: Player that could fall in the 2024 Draft
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>Scott Wheeler has been saying that Connelly is on most teams do not draft list, which is why he is so low on so many lists. That is nuts.

Since he made a mistake as 15-year old…and has owned it every step of the way, done all the right things, said all the right things, and people that know him best can attest. It speaks volumes that one of NCAAs most respected coaches has vouched for him.

He is a top-5 talent…and likely best skater in draft class. Someone is going to steal a game-breaker.</div></div>

According to NHL Central Scouting is his current weight 156lbs. That's far from the optimal. He will probably add another 30lbs, but that kind of change often affect player's skating. I would definitely not draft him in the top 10. It might be wise to select one of several good D-men available instead of Demidov, Catton, Connelly, Helenius etc. Draft is not deep, but there are some interesting blueliners to choose from.
Forum: Mock-Draft27 déc. 2023 à 1 h 12
Sujet: My current 2024 rankings
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>There aren't many centers here and Connelly has played both. Hage, Misa...some of these guys may be wingers as well.

While I agree the hierarchy is C&gt;RD&gt;LD&gt;W...I also know that the most common draft bust is 'center with size'</div></div>

I agree. GMs are desperate in their need of centers and size brings some adventage to a prospects. Not exactly in the "size" category, but the teams do regret their selection of Patrick, Glass, Andersson (2017), Turcotte (2019) or even Kotkaniemi (2018). At the time they were seen as sure option at the center and that's why GMs reached for them.

I somehow hate to have Lindstrom on my no. 2 position, because his performance is also in part product of being on a good team and I rather wouldn't take him in front of some other guys. But if there is a significant chance 7-8 years down the road he can be NHL top-line center (at 6ft4 or more and at least 220lbs), then I must consider he is worth a higher spot than some smaller, skilled guys. If in redraft 10-15 years in the future he is maybe no. 5 or no. 6, I'm fine with that. It's much harder to trade for a top centers than trading for top wingers.

Sure, Iginla, Hage, Misa, Boisvert, Beaudoin and some others might be wingers. But playing center in juniors brings to a players adventage in front of junior wingers. Centers are more defensively responsible and they usually fit into some AHL/NHL role (often on the wing). If natural winger is not offensivelly productive he often hurts his own team. It's not playing position that holds Connelly lower on my list, it is his "risk-to-reward ratio". Potential reward is (another) skilled NHL top-6 forward in 4-5 years, while due to his frame and style of play he has higher potential risk of suffering brutal injuries and/or not fitting into bottom-6.

Of course he can prove me wrong. But until he proves he has the same offensive potential as Eiserman or Helenius he will not make my top-10.
Forum: Mock-Draft26 déc. 2023 à 17 h 20
Sujet: My current 2024 rankings
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>The post wasn’t good, but there have been worse. He posted a photo with friends on Snapchat included a swastika made from blocks. The important part is how he has learned from that mistake and how much he matured from that experience. But some believe his punishment should be permanent. Personally, I think the response tells you more about the person. Everyone has regrettable events at age 15. Not everyone learns from them.

He is skinny, but has the frame where a couple of years in NCAA will allow him to bulk up a little (6’0” 180 lbs is good considering how well he moves).

I think he has a chance to be an elite transition player in NHL. If he were at US NTDP (and hadn’t had social media problem) he would probably be viewed higher on these lists. He has been included on US teams recently for tournaments (and I believe he has led each one in scoring). My guess is that he will be top-6 player at U18 this spring.</div></div>

The point is potential top-6 NHL wingers are relativelly common. You can make a case for many more to make my top-32 (Howe, Ritchie, Gridin, Burrows...) and I can understand that. But if I am GM, I would spend high picks on (1) top-6 centers, (2) top pairing D-men or (3) wingers with the highest scoring potential. Top centers and top D-men are much harder to find, so therefore I give them an edge at the draft table. You can select plenty of decent wingers and bottom-pairing D-men with your lower picks. Overall more complete players should have an advantage against role players. But if Connelly is your guy, I don't have a problem with that at all. Grab him in the top-10, I will span that pick on D-man.
Forum: Mock-Draft26 déc. 2023 à 11 h 20
Sujet: My current 2024 rankings
<a href="/users/NHLfan10506" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@NHLfan10506</a>
Thank you for the reply. I've never heard of any unfortunate post and it's not my bussiness.

I know he is good and I know the team is not as good this season (btw, I think in 2024 someone will select his former teammate, Tanner Adams). But I try not to be emotionally attached to any player. Connelly is either 6ft0 or 6ft1 and weights around 160lbs. Look a photo of his face ( https://stormhockey.com/sports/mhockey/roster/trevor-connelly/13 ). He is skinny and these players are very risky. Either are they top-6 or out of the roster. On the other side can 190lbs players handle all the aspects of hockey game and play tough shifts. I am leaning towards other side, that is to slide Demidov and Catton down on my list.
Forum: Armchair-GM8 juill. 2023 à 9 h 57
Sujet: Expansion Draft 2023 edition
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AK50</b></div><div>I have some problems with your protected list:
1. Nucks wouldn't protect Kravstov, he's in the KHL now.
2. Preds would protect McDonagh over Barrie.
3. Pretty confident the Habs would protect Matheson.
4. Sens likely would protect Korpisalo(if he puts up solid numbers).
5. Panthers would need to protect Bobrovsky(unless he waives his NMC).</div></div>

1. They can afford to protect him. I doubt anyone would take Beauvillier's cap hit.
2. McDonagh is expensive, old and his contract runs through 2025/26.
3. Matheson's contract isn't great either.
4. Maybe. I wouldn't, he is trending in the wrong direction.
5. Bob is willing to waive NMC. FLO would like to move his contract and he is willing to waive, there are just no takers.