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MartianKiwi

MartianKiwi
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Canadiens de Montréal
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Forum: Armchair-GM2 juill. 2020 à 14 h 34
Sujet: STOP TRADING 8OA
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>They'd be foolish to not consider it, IMO. You are WAY overvaluing the draft pick and WAY overestimating the Sabres ability to get that pick right.

Between 2001 and 2015 there were 39 forwards taken with picks <strong>4-7</strong>. If we rearrange them by P/GP performance we can see the odds of getting a difference-maker:

Superstar (1.00+ P/GP): 0/39 = 0%
Elite (0.75 - 0.99): 8/39 = 20.5%
Top-6 (0.50 - 0.74): 17/39 = 43.6%
Bottom-6 (&lt; 0.50): 14/39 = 35.9%

I did that research when Buffalo was slotted to get the 7th pick, but since they're now picking 8th lets repeat the procedure but with picks 8-10. Forwards only, from 2001 to 2015 inclusive:

Superstar (1.00+ P/GP): 0/27 = 0%
Elite (0.75 - 0.99): 2/27 = 7.4%
Top-6 (0.50 - 0.74): 11/27 = 40.7%
Bottom-6 (&lt; 0.50): 14/27 = 51.9%

High picks are great, but (cap aside) if you have a chance to trade your #8 pick for an established player in his early 20's who scores 0.67 P/GP you shouldn't dismiss that as "foolish". Only 2 of the players in the Top-6 range matched or exceeded 0.67 P/GP, meaning that you typically have a 14.8% chance of getting a player equal to or better (offensively) than Domi with that pick. AGAIN, it depends on who is available there, but to dismiss the notion of trading the pick so hastily is foolish.</div></div>

<a href="/users/Shibbal18" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@Shibbal18</a> <a href="/users/SalamiCheese" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@SalamiCheese</a> <a href="/users/sabertooth12" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@sabertooth12</a> <a href="/users/MartianKiwi" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@MartianKiwi</a>

You guys might like the odds I posted above.