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HawksFan28

HawksFan28
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Forum: Armchair-GM13 avr. 2018 à 22 h 57
Sujet: Melnyk's Utopia
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Xspyrit</b></div><div>Bobby Ryan is owed $30 million for the next 4 years. Do you think 100% of that salary is a "dump"? I mean, sure he had a really bad season last year as he kept getting injured but have you watched him in last playoffs? 15 pts in 19 games, 3 GWG, 2 in OT, and made an impact all over the ice (hits, blocked shots, back checks, etc). This season he was also plagued by injuries but he semi-bounced back with 33 pts in 62 games (0.53 PPG). Not even accounting many games where he had to leave due to injury, that's still a 44 pts pace in 82 games, which is close to 50 pts.

This season, 151 forwards who played more than 41 games had a better PPG. What does that mean? That he would be the 5th most productive forward on the average team. That's not "great" by any means but it doesn't make 100% of his salary a "dump", it would be foolish to think that.

Every player in the league has a "dollar value" attached to them by GMs (according to multiple interviews and discussions I had with scouts, people linked to the game, etc). Most of their salary doesn't actually reflect it so it depends on the team acquiring the said player. What I mean, is that it is much more complicated than fans perception.</div></div>

I like Bobby Ryan as a player but at his age and the fact he has 4 years remaining on his contract at 7.5 per makes him a risk to acquire.. I don't think he's 100% dump but yea, a lot of his salary is dump.. It's just one of those trades that could turn out to be really really really good or it could turn out to be really awful and teams are going to want an asset with him in case the trade turns out to be awful....

As a Hawks fan I would have interest, but I would really need something to make the risk worth it ... I would want Ottawa's first round pick in exchange for Duclair or Hinostroza and Nashville's first round pick .... And I think a trade like that really isn't that bad. Ottawa still gets a first round pick (albeit a late first round pick) and a decent player in Duclair while losing Ryan's contract in the process...

Also, any way you slice the cake Ryan isn't worth 7.5 per even if he was putting up 60 points a season but he's not. I would say Ryan is worth 4.5 per so there is that "overpaid" factor too, but whatever club ends up acquiring him the deal is going to end up being really really really good or terrible and that is due to his contract... Of course if Ottawa want's to retain salary that is a totally different situation, however Melynk is trying to dump salary so I don't see why he would retain...

There are many ways to make a Ryan deal creative tho, package him up with Mark Stone - but the problem with that is a team is going to need some serious cap space to make that work because Ryan already carries a cap hit of 7.5 and you figure Mark Stone is going to want at least 5 or 5.5 so that's 13 million in cap hit right there....

Another option would be to move Ryan for a bunch of conditional picks... Like Ottawa would have to give up a future first round pick if Ryan doesn't play 60 games and average .70ppg etc... That may be creative but it's also complicated.

We'll have to see tho. One thing I'm sure about is Ryan will be traded and IMO, I hope Stan Bowman is looking into making a deal for him and Ottawa's first round pick.... I mean If I was Bowman I would consider even tossing in the Hawks 2019 first round pick too if Ottawa agreed to package their lottery pick up with Ryan . I think Duclair, Nashville's 2018 first and the Hawks 2019 first for Ryan would be more than fair.....

We will see tho.
Forum: NHL6 avr. 2018 à 19 h 40
Sujet: No not that Karlsson. his next contract.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Blazingbat11</b></div><div>You could also argue from other GMs perspective to not offer sheet him at all for the very same reasons you stated. But yeah, I agree with everything you wrote. If McPhee is smart he just goes for a 1-2 year deal.

and Karlsson's market value will set itself, he has arbitration rights.</div></div>

Well if another team doesn't then Karlsson is forced to take what McPhee offered then.

I think a good offer would be 4 or 4.5 over 2 years. That way you can see if Karlsson is for real or not - then give him the big contract if he earns it... He's 25 so sign him until he's 27 (UFA).... I think that makes the most sense. And since Karlsson hasn't singed an extension that's probably what McPhee is thinking.
Forum: NHL6 avr. 2018 à 19 h 34
Sujet: Philipp Grubauer's potential/trade value?
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DoctorBreakfast</b></div><div>You have to look at comparable situations. You can't just look at guys like Darling and Bishop and compare them to Grubauer's situation. Both of those guys were UFA's, so giving up 1st simply for negotiating rights would have been a very high-risk gamble. Grubauer's RFA status is the key here. Whoever he gets traded to will hold his exclusive rights, and that is much more valuable than simply 2 weeks of negotiating rights. Because of this, he can also be signed to a much lower salary, as he cannot simply go to the open market and fetch the highest bidder. Couple that with the fact that he's only 26 and can be a long-term solution, and that adds even more value.

The examples I provided that did fetch 1st round picks were all closer to the Grubauer situation than that of a Scott Darling or a Ben Bishop situation.</div></div>

Oh, I'm aware of the situations...

The only goalie I would give up a first round pick for is Connor Hart...

Maybe some GM will give Washington a first for Grubauer, but I wouldn't... There is just too little competition among GM's and too much competition among goalies... If a GM needs a goalie he can find an adequate one without having to give up a first round pick, so I don't understand why a GM would offer one up. Sure, maybe a late first round pick in a bad draft. You also have to remember draft quality plays a role, so a first round pick is objective.
Forum: NHL6 avr. 2018 à 19 h 15
Sujet: No not that Karlsson. his next contract.
History shows he will get a crazy contract and history also shows in 2 years he wont be worth it... Of course I could be wrong, but it seems a player always has a career year when their contract is up - they get a mega deal then never sniff those numbers again -- until they're in the final year of their contract -- then they have a "rebound" season...... It's crazy.

Whats up with players having career years in the last year of their deal?

Yea, I know Karlsson is young but I really think he overachieved this season as the entire Vegas Knights team did - he will get 6M x 8 and probably will be a 50 point player - a 25/25 guy..

It must suck to be in that position as a GM. You know this guy just had a career year and you know he's not going to sniff that production again but you cant afford to lose him because the risk outweighs the reward....

If I was McPhee, I would offer 4.5M x 2 and wait to see if he's given an offer sheet, if he does then I would consider matching it - let the market dictate what Karlsson is worth rather than making a mistake. Karlsson is an RFA so it's not like he won't be compensated if some GM gives Karlsson a ridiculous offer... Give another GM a chance to make the mistake first.
Forum: NHL5 avr. 2018 à 17 h 32
Sujet: Taylor Hall Selfish
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>krakowitz</b></div><div>Taylor Hall is an MVP candidate, possible the frontrunner at this point. Adam Larsson is nothing more than a top pairing defenseman. There is no realistic circumstance in which this looks like a fair deal. Absolutely not.</div></div>

Yes, Hall had a career year and you guys are acting like the Oilers just traded Wayne Gretzky again.

Hall isn't going to sniff 100 points again.

IMO, Oilers fans are starting to sound greedy - as if Taylor Hall was worth Erik Karlsson or something.

If It matters, I don't even like the Oilers - I think there is something profoundly wrong with that franchise. I should laugh and agree with you but the truth is that I don't think it was that bad of a trade and without question it was the right thing to do because the Oilers needed a defenseman, I just don't think Hall was the right one to use as bait to acquire one.

IMO, I hope this is a bad deal because that would serve them right for not trading the Yakapov pick for a top 2 defenseman. That drove me nuts, because it was obvious then one of the Oilers immediate needs was a legitimate top 2 defenseman, what did they do? draft another forward - made no damn sense at all. That was just negligence.
Forum: NHL5 avr. 2018 à 17 h 21
Sujet: Philipp Grubauer's potential/trade value?
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>krakowitz</b></div><div>Hutton is 6 years older than Grubauer. If a team is looking for a long-term goaltending solution, Hutton isn't the guy. In fact, Grubauer is likely the only guy that can fit that bill to become potentially available this offseason (assuming Raanta resigns in AZ). And we literally just gave you recent examples of goalies being traded for a first round pick, some even more. What exactly means that there is little evidence?</div></div>

And what teams are looking for long-term goalie solutions? the only team I can think of right now are the Islanders, maybe Phoenix would have interest.

My point is supply and demand dictates what a GM will think is a fair price (what he will offer) for a player, and goalies are a dime a dozen.. Grubauer doesn't scream franchise goalie, and the separation between franchise goalie and adequate starting goalie isn't much at all - the parody among goalies is pretty narrow.

Like I said, if a GM gives up a first for Grubauer it means that GM really really really wanted him and that GM believes he's their franchise goalie..

You have to remember there are a ton of goalies out there and only 62 NHL slots, most of which are full already so there may be perhaps a dozen open slots and 100+ goalies good enough to backup, have potential to backup, start or have potential to start...... It's a situation where you can take your pick. There are lots of guys floating around that have potential and Grubauer is just one of them, so why would a GM give up a first round pick when there others a GM could either sign as a UFA or acquire for a mid-round pick? so if you're going to give up a first round pick for a goalie he has to be "the guy"...
Forum: NHL5 avr. 2018 à 16 h 50
Forum: NHL4 avr. 2018 à 17 h 21
Sujet: Taylor Hall Selfish
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mhockey91</b></div><div>this is halls third time being a point per game actually lmao. and while this may be a career year I believe hall will be a consistent 75+ point player for many seasons. last year he struggled getting used to a new team and lets be honest NJD offence last year was flat out horrible. look what I posted on your quote. I firmly believe due to circumstances this is the worst trade in modern era hockey</div></div>

I just don't see it and if that is true then there is something wrong with Edmonton as a franchise. Like I said, Hall put up 50 points last season, New Jersey missed the playoffs and Edmonton didn't, now the roles are reversed and the trade is terrible?

Hall's not going to become a ppg player or close to it overnight.... He's not very consistent. He's a top 6 forward having a career year... The best part is the Oilers got a legitimate top 4 defenseman - in the deal - not some "bum"... Even if Taylor Hall did become a perennial ppg player that still wouldn't make this trade one of the "worst" when teams have acquired star players for junk that never even played in the NHL.

Besides, Adam Larsson was what the Oilers needed, the trade is hardly "bad" Larsson is 25, Hall is 26 so there is plenty of time to determine who won the trade but in the end IMO it will be "fair"..

This trade is far to early to say who won it.... Next season the Oilers could be in the playoffs and the Devils could be out... Heck, the Devils could still be out this year.
Forum: NHL4 avr. 2018 à 16 h 57
Sujet: Taylor Hall Selfish
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mhockey91</b></div><div>Adam Larsson is a top 4 Dman. hes not a #1, hes not a #2, hes either a #3 or a #4. he has no offensive ability and while he is responsible defensively, he is nowhere close to an elite d. Taylor hall on the other hand is arguably going to win the hart trophy this year. he is top 5 (maybe 3?) best players at his position. he is an ELITE player. in what world do elite hart trophy players get traded for a #3 or 4D. im not saying Larsson is bad, im saying that they are nowhere close in value. that would be like Chicago trading Patrick Kane for a guy like josh manson or Chris tanev (who are both better players than larsson). if Edmonton traded RNH or eberle for Larsson then its more fair. you could make arguments for both sides. but Taylor hall is in a league of his own and I am not exaggerating when I say that this may go down as THE SINGLE WORST trade in NHL history</div></div>

Dude, Hall put up 50 points last season, he's put up a ppg exactly 1 time in his career before this season and this is his 8th in the league.

I'll bet you didn't think it was that bad when the Oilers made the playoffs last season did you? lol Now Hall has a good season, the Devils may go to the playoffs and the Oilers aren't and it's "one of the worst trades in NHL history", lol...

It's not even CLOSE to one of the worst trades in NHL history. Heck, the Hawks been involved in worse trades than that over the past 20 years... Geez, the Leddy for Barker and Johnsson trade was worse than this..

Yea, Lasson is a top 4 defenseman and Hall is what? Wayne Gretzky? lol...

I'll bet Hall doesn't sniff ppg next season..... This is Hall's career year... It's not like the Oilers gave up a perennial 100 point player. The Oilers gave up a top 6 forward for a top 4 defenseman, that is fair.... Taylor Hall isn't an "elite" or "franchise" top 6 forward either...

Don't confuse a career year with the status quo..
Forum: NHL4 avr. 2018 à 16 h 32
Sujet: Taylor Hall Selfish
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>rangersandislesfan</b></div><div>Larsson actually is a +10 on the OILERS this year. I know everyone will disagree, but i'm actually not kidding here: this was a win-win trade IMO. Last year people thought it was a win for the Oilers and a loss for the Devils because the Oilers were good and the Devils weren't. Now, NJ definitely won this trade, but i actually think Edmonton may have too. Hall has been playing great for the Devils, but he wasn't putting up quite as good numbers for the Oilers. And Larsson's a good defenseman. Edmonton needed a d-man at the time, and he played great last year. Almost everyone's struggling in Edmonton (not McDavid, but most others). Sure, i agree, the Seguin trade was terrible for Boston, but the Larsson trade is or at least could turn out to be a win-win.</div></div>

I agree, not longer than 5 minutes ago another poster claimed Edmonton got ripped and that the Larsson for Hall trade was "one of the worst in NHL history". I think it was even at the time and still a good trade today for both teams. At the time it was obvious the Oilers had to move a forward for a defenseman, not sure why they chose Hall but they did..

Seems peoples feelings on this deal are a mixed bag almost 2 years later.
Forum: Armchair-GM4 avr. 2018 à 16 h 22
Sujet: JVR, Duchene, Maroon, Faulk, Nash, Hickey
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ChiHawk</b></div><div>I have to be honest, your assessment of Schmaltz is off. Will he be good, yes, will he be great, no, you are listening to much to Chicago news. He's definitely going to be a top 50 player but he's not Duchene and doubt he ever will be. Duchene when he was Schmaltz's age showed a lot more and played on a bad team. Schmaltz is playing next to one of the best wingers in the game. Shmaltz is never going to be a 70 point consistent player and his faceoffs are horrible.

The same thing with Saad you've made in other comments. You are listening to too much Chicago news. He is not a top winger, he's good and had a down year and agree he is a 50 point player, but he's never going to be great, he's simply too slow and doesn't win the battles he should with his size. Someone like JVR is a way better option on the LW. If the Hawks can dump Saad and use the money towards JVR they would be a better team for it.</div></div>

My assessment is accurate.

He already had 50 points this season and Schmaltz is nowhere near close to fully developed.

I expect Jason Spezza production out of him in a few years, and I have no doubts that (if healthy) will put up at least 65 points next season.

Jason Spezza is a really good comparable..

Spezza put up 55 points in 78 games his sophomore season, Schmaltz is in his and he has 50 in 75... Spezza was 2 years younger but I don't know how much that really means when you're 20-22...

Schmaltz is going to be a really good player - close to a PPG player. He was a steal at 20th overall.

We'll have to see tho.

The Hawks got steals in Schmaltz &amp; DeBrincat... DeBrincat will be another stud. I see him being a perennial 40 goal scorer.

It's pretty crazy, despite the Hawks having late first round picks they seem to walk away with studs in the first or second round just about every year.
Forum: NHL4 avr. 2018 à 16 h 13
Sujet: Philipp Grubauer's potential/trade value?
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>krakowitz</b></div><div>You don't remember the last time a goalie was traded for a first round pick? Martin Jones was traded for San Jose's 2016 1st. Robin Lehner went to Buffalo for a 2015 first round pick that I believe was originally Nashville's. Freddy Andersen went for a 1st and a 2nd right before the 2016 draft. Antti Raanta was traded with Stepan in a package for the #7 pick and a top four D prospect. Literally everything I just said is what <a href="/users/DoctorBreakfast" target="_blank">@DoctorBreakfast</a> said.</div></div>

Those guys were all legitimate starters at the time of those trades.

A player is only worth what a team is willing to give up, and that depends on the market. I highly doubt Grubauer will get a first round pick... What teams could be in the market for a goalie? The Islanders?