SalarySwishSalarySwish
Avatar

F3ruS

Go Boltz! & Go Avs!
Membre depuis
14 nov. 2018
Équipe favorite
Lightning de Tampa Bay
Deuxième équipe favorite
Avalanche du Colorado
Messages dans les forums
460
Messages par jour
0.2
Forum: Armchair-GM3 mars 2020 à 18 h 59
Sujet: Tampa fans- please explain why Cirelli is so valuable
Well, he is my fav player for a reason from this season. Likely stays for a while...
Last season(s) my fav was PointerZ.

One word: Selke

You just don't believe it, except if you watch every single TBL game.
He gives his 100% each and every shift. And he is not injury prone... unlike Stamkos...
I can't describe him any better: He hustles for the puck, like a cat for his prey.
Skates well...
When he is on the ice, the target is " The puck".
When defending/pk:distracting opponents to force bad plays.
When attacking:going to the net vs much bigger defenders. He doesn't afraid to fight as well, or be phyisical, even though he is not a big/230 pounds player...
He is faster,stronger, than last year = Still improving a lot...
I don't think he will ever reach Bergeron's offensive skill level, but a 50 points guy is still super useful on the ice each year, when his caphit is not off the charts...
Like imagine he is a mini "Sean Couturier/Bertuzzi/Ryan O'reilly/Tkatchuk/Rust/Toews/Kopitar". These players are "winner" type of guys.
Every team wants a few of these players. They just don't grow on trees. Like Gourde is fighting hard on the ice as well, but he sometimes disappears for 30 games... Or JT Miller is offensively gifted, but he also dissapeared a lot last year...So NHL it's not just all about points...
It's like all things combined: Being a center is a big+,Consistency,PK skills,Hockey IQ, defensive skills, speed, fightning spirit,work ethic,stick-checking,takeaways,faceoffs etc... like ten other things...
I have no idea how noone picked him earlier in his draft year... we were lucky let's just say it... like with Kuch...
...Or Point. Yeah,Point is much closer to Bergeron... Berg. is truly elite...looks like age doesn't matter to Berg...

Interesting to look at his draft year.
He had good numbers:
<em>2014-15-Oshawa Generals-OHL
68g-36p
plus-minus chart: +34
</em>

The good thing that he kept the +- thing in NHL, because he never gives up to try to "outwork" the opponent(s).
Lots of players, like Matthews is a superstar and what they do: only offense and zero defense.
This year Matthews improved a lot as well, just like Cirelli, and he can become in like 2 years a complete 2 way forward. But we'll see. But Matthews has a 10 million $ + contract, so he has to be better...
We'll see at the end of the year how much $$$ Cirelli will get.. He deserves every penny, until he plays with this "unique style". He makes his linemates better. That's not that easy to do for a lots of players...

Oh yeah another similar player i just remembered: Brendan Gallagher.from :canadiens... really similar... maybe you know that player more...
Wish we could acquire Gallagher once ;) No wonder he is a fan favorite as well...

I hope i helped ;)
Forum: Armchair-GM3 mars 2020 à 17 h 52
Sujet: Opening Night- Tampa Buffalo
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Capitalfail67</b></div><div>Capitals go as far as kuzy and holt by takes us. So if kuzy plays like he did in 2018 we are winning the cup. If he turns into a ghost we are losing in 5. Holtby has looked better but I’m not a fan of our defense. Thought Jensen would be a lot better and lemony looks awful since his injury. I really like the youngster coming up. We miss a guy like Orpik desperately</div></div>

You sure you not starting first 2 games with Samsonov? Like 100% sure Holtby starts both games? It's really bad to go 0-2, just because a bad decision by coach? No?

I would not even hesitate one second, bench Holtby, and start Samsonov, until he let's in a lot of goals/1 game...
0.900 SV% for Holtby it's just not even close to a number like 0.920
So how can he turn it up like 2 years ago? It seems "Mission Impossible" to me. And for Samsonov that looks like " doable" from game 1 of playoffs. With the help of Dillon.
Forum: Armchair-GM3 mars 2020 à 17 h 37
Sujet: Opening Night- Tampa Buffalo
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Capitalfail67</b></div><div>Haha I can’t tell if you’re being sarcastic but imo I think he’s amazing and this is only his first full year in the nhl. He’s only going to get better. He’s also a right dman that is playing left. He’s left handed but prefers to play right</div></div>

No, i think Holtby has a down year, so i assume every Washington D is garbage except Carlson. You know in my mind, if it's not about my team, i like to simplify things... my team is complicated enough...and i watch the avs a lot tooo. soo... it's better if u just know Islanders = top tier defense Washington = bad defense

But when Samsonov plays suddenly the whole Washington D looks elite. I really like Dillon as well, so tha was a nice addition for sure.(I wanted him in tampa)
I can't wait to see, if u guys destroy us like couple of years ago game 6+7 or we win this time for once, if we meet. That was crazy bad for us...:cry
Hopefully not the same result hahaaa, i don't wanna meet you guys. I'm scared. I'm serious! :nod
Coleman vs Wilson matchup will be fun... Goodrow should help combat your phyisicality, but we'll see... i still feel like it's a really bad matchup for us... and good for your team :cry

Who do you think winning in a potential Conference finals: Caps or Boltz?
My hunch tells me, you guys will lose vs Islanders 1st round, vs your old coach Barry "Godtier" Trotz. He knows your organization too well. Similar to Tortorella vs. Tampa last year... He just knows...

So what do you think about these 2 matchups?
Wsh vs NYI(most likely 1st round matchup this year)
&amp;
Wash vs Tampa
If :capitals can get past :islanders i think we'll meet in conf finals. :cool
But parity is too even in this league...So you never know, if another sweep is "on the horizon" for the lightning... hope not LUL... then rip our dreams...
Forum: Armchair-GM3 mars 2020 à 17 h 14
Sujet: Summer Plans for Botts
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Lsendel3</b></div><div>Johansen doesn't get Risto, Reinhart, or Oloffson without Nash paying Buf something nice to take that contract. 8M isn't that bad for a 60 point center, but it's not that good either and that's all he's ever been. I think the thought would be having him play WITH Skinner to maybe maximize both of their talents (distributer/finisher) Skinner is having a down year, but speaking out of both sides of your mouth aren't ya? Give RyJo respect he'll bounce back, Skinner is done for and the contract is an anchor. Truth is, both are overpaid and trading for RyJo sets Buf back even further then they already are.</div></div>

No, i've never seen Skinner in his whole career reaching the 9 mill $ potential.
I know plus-minus is a garbage stat, but -113 over whole career is still something.
Like -40 for Risto at least still means something for last year.
Those types of players not "that amazing" defensively you know...
RJ at least is closer to 0. Like -50 career maybe would be fine, but -100 is just not good, whatever garbage stat are +-.
You need to be useful in the defensive zone... Maybe it's the goalies fault, when Skinner is on the ice, idk ...

On the other hand i've seen RJ reaching the 8 mill $ potential, or at least close to it...
But you're kinda right that Skinner can bounce back, as he is not that old. I just doubt it.
Most people hated Palat last year. I told them Palat is not done. I was right... he bounced back... so i concede that maybe this time you're right and Skinner can bounce back...
It's just to me Skinner seems too streaky. Like Gourde in tampa. I can't see Gourde getting back to the 60 point level he reached like few years back...
Same thing with Skinner i jus't can't see him scoring 40... but ~30 sure... i can see that, so maybe next year that contract is "better".... that has a good chance... we'll see ;)

PS: Don't quote me on Skinner, if he reaches 40 goals again haha :flushed
Forum: Armchair-GM3 mars 2020 à 17 h 4
Sujet: Opening Night- Tampa Buffalo
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Capitalfail67</b></div><div>Forsberg bura mojo Stephenson Nate Schmidt Sanford. Capitals live to dump young talent and replace it with aging parts


Also Jensen isn’t terrible we just hate him bc he’s taking a roster spot away from a better player. Seig should be playing every night and I behave another kid sitting in the AHL bc the coaching staff prefers vets over youth</div></div>

Do you think Siegenthaler plays well? When i see him, i see him struggle. So not good. Maybe i should check some adv stats on him ;)

Edit 2 mins later:
Wow adv stats says: I'm blind - not watch enough Caps games...

<img class="for_img" src="https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocDefWiThumb/1920/WSH/siegejo97/" alt="siegejo97">

That's pretty good, he should def play more then!
Sometimes eyetest is bad haha, oops... :grimace
Forum: Armchair-GM3 mars 2020 à 17 h 0
Sujet: Looking at next season would Tampa say yes
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hockey91</b></div><div>Man you’re telling me. I wouldn’t want anything more to get in the playoffs and lose 4 games to 1. May even squeak two out. But for some reason tallon would rather trade a center for more offensive than what he glaring need in this team is. I’ve watched Toronto the last few weeks. They are playing better but they have the same issues as Florida but their offensive hasn’t dried up like ours lately and the made the trades that help them defensively a little bit. But they’re beatable by a good team as long as Tampa doesn’t go full **** like last year</div></div>

Last year we got "shrekt" - thanks to Point+Hedman(hidden big injuries - unplayable and yet they played) + Kuch suspension + Hot Bobrovski goalie + Vasi worst games of the year.
Hot goalie = super important in playoffs. + Tortorella knows us too well... he outcoached Cooper big time... + Martin St. Louis helped their special teams to destroy us.
We had 50% Penalty Kill in 4 games. It was insane. Worst teams in league has 75%... We had 50%... Every PP = goal LUL. No wonder we lost... Hopefully Coleman+ Goodrow helps on the pk to go above 80%...
I don't ask for more... just a normal result on the pk... i'm even fine with 15% PP, as our 5on5 is much better, than last years... I hope Vasi this year playoffs = not on AHL level.
Vasi in early season = he was AHL level goalie, no joke... so he carried the level from the playoffs... then end of december---&gt; switch turned = Vezina winning goalie.... who understands this insane difference?

I'm really hoping this stat will help us:
In 2018/2019:
<img class="for_img" src="https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/shotLocDef/1819/T.B/" alt="T.B">

2019/2020:
<img class="for_img" src="https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/shotLocDef/1920/T.B/" alt="T.B">

-7% is insane difference in 1 year period... The whole teams goes back to defend/blocking/backcheck/stand in shooting lanes/eliminate middle of the ice/eliminate rushes...
Tyler Johnson still has problems + Stamkos + Kucherov... sometimes Gourde is not in the shooting lanes lately...
Injuries not helping.... but still... the -7% improvement ( less medium+high danger scoring chances) will help a lot to not allow 4 goals/game... i hope at least....

If we fail again... i think we have to say goodbye to Cooper... he just can't do it... not good enough.... can't blame every player each year. Sometimes the coach has to take the blame...
I think if we fail this time.... it's the coach's fault... i will not blame it on injuries... i hope he doesn't as well ( our GM)...

My predictions for playoffs:

Conference Finals:
Tampa-Islanders
Vegas-Dallas

I think we will lose in the finals: that's my current prediction vs a west team like Vegas/Blues(we might beat Dallas/Edm =west dark horse--&gt;Drai+McJesus combo= can be unstoppable)

Currently imo it's :goldenknights who make it(Lehner = godtier goalie), but maybe someone will cause some upsets, so a surprise team might make it into the finals...
We can beat a "surprise team", but we are hopeless vs like a team like :blues... I can't remember the last time we played a solid game vs them... we look like lost on the ice, they just defend well and we don't generate anything... they score their usual 3/4 goals vs us 0-2... end result we just lose...
I expect 0-4 vs St.Louis in the finals, if they make it that deep... By far the worst matchup in the finals... if we make it... IF...
But i guess i take the L in that case, what can u do if the other team is better on paper in matchup and they DO IT. Have to give the :applaud to St. Louis, if they can win 2 years in a row (unlikely).
Against Vegas, super close series... We probably lose 3-4...game 7 NotLikeThis ...
This year they outplayed us 2/2 times... Result 1win-1loss(we got lucky in 1 match).

I think for us matchups are the most important things. 3 worst playoffs opponent:
Minnesota, St. Louis, Washington.... Glad that Minny vs TBL = 0% chance it happening

Will be fun to check back in June how wrong i was hahaha. If you have some free time. Please tell me your predictions for Conf finals/Finals/Winner. :)
Just your pure instincts, who are the best teams in the league!
Like if you would bet money on who goes deep in the playoffs... will be nice to compare once playoffs ends Haha
Forum: Armchair-GM3 mars 2020 à 16 h 8
Forum: Armchair-GM3 mars 2020 à 15 h 41
Sujet: Summer Plans for Botts
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>wmorrow585</b></div><div>Don't think Lehner would ever come back here</div></div>

Agreed, and i also think Lehner aims for the "huge payday". Not 5 mill $ @ 3 years peanuts...
Nashville also declines for sure... Maybe try to give them a better package with picks/prospects? Like why would they ever want Johansson?
Johanson for Johansen for the MEMES?
They are fine on the D front. Why would they trade for D?
Try to offer Olofffson/Reinheart or even Risto...
Have some respect for RJ. I don't think he is done for life... Yes this year the 8 mill caphit doesn't look that good... but it can change next year... I think he will be fine...

Maybe they want Skinner(with retention), idk, LUL dat contract...
Is that contract the new "Milan Lucic"
Who can find a worse one over 6-7 mill? Pk Subban maybe? Jeez... some gm's giving out money like crazy all the time... When they will learn, and only give elite players elite money?
Forum: Armchair-GM3 mars 2020 à 15 h 14
Sujet: Looking at next season would Tampa say yes
Our needs are: Trading away 4-5 million $ caphit guys, who are replacable with less caphit.(close to similar impacts for less caphit)
Boston did the same with Backes, Edmonton with Lucic, Toronto with Marleau.
The prices were different in every trade.

So far we've done 2 trades to adress this for next year: Coleman and Goodrow.
Since our "too much caphit" type of guys are still producing on fairly cosistent basis(above replacement level). The effort to move out those guys will be easier, than said players.
You can counter it with NTC, i counter it with Parise and Ladd waived their NTC's 1 week ago. It's not a rocket science thing, which csick claims in every single tampa topic.
NTC = not a huge problem, when you are not sending the player to where he doesn't wanna go (like Kessel to Minnesota for Zucker)
Yes if BriseBois offers :senators as the only possible team for Gourde, he will say... f**k off...

To trade offer: :lightning says: No thanks

Here is the newest table(1 week old): if you can't evaluate players value on our team

<img class="for_img" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ERuS9TGUcAAe7Hu?format=png&amp;name=large" alt="ERuS9TGUcAAe7Hu?format=png&amp;name=large">

If Sergachev ever gets traded in the future: It will be for a guy with an "amazing caphit - good performance", like Sean Couturier. And we all know Couturier will stay for a while in Philly... So good luck finding those players :) Probably needs to be 2 years contract remaining for the next guy. As Goodrow+Coleman only has 1 years left.(you don't want every "favourable caphit" player expire on same year)

It's hard to find those type of players, so i expect Sergy to be resigned in the offseason for under 4 million $ @ ??? years. I have no idea about the years... (my guess is 2 years)
It comes from Mcavoy: 5 mill$ top2D vs Serg top6D... so don't expect bridge contract over 5 million.... i've seen a lot of topics on this site with irrealistic huge number for Serg...
90% it will be under 4 mill $ . I can't see a longterm deal atm... so i don't wanna guess that one... seems impossible...
Forum: Armchair-GM3 mars 2020 à 14 h 37
Sujet: Tampa Fans - Cernak
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Salzy</b></div><div>Getting mad at speculation on a website that is built on it :sarcasm

Offer sheets are not a myth, and the Ducks know that first hand.

A team could offer Cernak 4.2x4 and Tampa has a really hard time matching that without making other moves and worrying about Cirelli or Sergachev offer sheets

A second in 2021 is a price the Ducks or any team would easily pay for Cernak imo, his trade value isnt much more than that so Tampa may take the easy way out and take the second

Nobody knows if Cernak, or any other player would sign an offersheet unless you are that player and/or his agent, saying anything different is ridiculous, interviews and quotes could all be smokescreens and again this is a speculative website by nature

The Lightning are facing a massive cap crunch and this offseason will be very tough, it is not a sure thing Tampa can keep all 3 of Cirelli Sergachev and Cernak and you're Naive if you believe its a forgone conclusion. Sure they may keep all 3 but there is a very real possibility they lose at least one of them whether thats to trade or an offersheet, Bergevin making Aho one last offseason may encourage more this offseason, no one knows if an offersheet will be made and/or accepted.

The fun of ACGM is speculation of scenarios and this is an example of this, If cap increases by 3M this season, Tampa has 8.3M in cap room with 15 players under contract. 5-8 players needed to be signed and you are facing the possibility of losing good young players since Cernak, Sergachev, and Cirelli should all easily break 2.5 each</div></div>

You're not convincable... i'm done here... wasting my time... enjoy your summer offersheets: all of them :tearsofjoy
2nd round pick suggestion is rofl... good luck with that... top4D 2nd round lmao.... you can't be saved...

i tried... i failed.... epic fail on my part... i admit... sucks to be me...

I'm not hating, im not mad at you, peace... :cheers :cheers :cheers

I'm just bored from all these topics. And i can't resist to convert 1 guy/week from the "dark" side to the "bright" side. :nod
I expect fun/realistic trades here or fun conversations, but it's not fun, when u see NHL '20 lvl speculations about things which has the same likelihood as Tampa winning the draft lottery.

Zero/Nada/0.

Sergachev = offersheeted
Cirelli = offersheeted
Kucherov = offersheeted
Vasilevski = offersheeted
Laine = offersheeted
Point = offersheeted
Marner = offersheeted

Zzz...zzZ

Newest member of the club = Cernak = offersheeted
great suggestion = fun-----------right? no LUL


BTW last year's Aho "i need a center" try = not offersheet...
That was a desperate and laughable attempt from an unsuccesful(not making playoffs for ages) GM trying to fill the Nr #1 center role, where he failed super hard in every draft to fix that issue in the last several years.
His reason was for offersheet: they might not pay him, the owner doesn't have cash. LUL :tearsofjoy

Result = every expert in every site and on TV... and every other GM... laughed at him... also rip any future impact trades with Carolina in next few years...

Great job: Marc "pro offersheeter" Bergevin... soon to be lottery picks (if said "try" gone through by miracle). I guess u wanna follow him. Good luck, i'm out.
Forum: Armchair-GM3 mars 2020 à 13 h 14
Sujet: Tampa Fans - Cernak
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Salzy</b></div><div>Yeah, I'm just a big fan of his and would love to see him in SoCal, this was done assuming Shatty stays and Foote can take that step forward

Do you think Cernak is the least likely to move out of him Sergachev and Cirelli? Say if one of them has to go

I think Cernak is a prime candidate for an offer sheet from a team like us</div></div>

All 3 are staying... it's not rocket science... there is no answer to that question...:shakehead

You could ask the same for Byram or Makar from Col leaving in future... no point to this...
If anybody of these types of guys gets traded, you can't ever predict that... like Killorn you can predict... or even guys with NTC... but RFA's with good performance usually gets resigned...
If there is low/no cap space.. then for bridge contract/1 year deal etc...
Tampa likes Serg/Cirelli/Cernak same way... they are not expendable assets for unknown return. And all 3 has even more potential in future years. All under 25 years...


<strong>Noone is offersheeting any under 5 million players(especially from a lottery team</strong>--&gt; the factor of likeliness is like out of world, 10 times less likely than other mediocre teams).
He had a down year btw, like Manson... so it's even more unlikely for this particular player...

I want to help you:
Learn it now, or you will be disappointed in every offseason in the near future.(at least until new CBA)
<strong>Hint: offersheets are a myth.</strong>

If you learn these couple of words. You will be more successful at creating possible future team evaluations/ACGM's

The biggest problems with offersheets are: The offersheeted player says no thanks. :nod
In case of Cernak noone is offering him 8.x millions... which he would probably accept... That money is huge compared to the 3-4 million $ we possibly offering him in the offseason...
Even he can't refuse it most likely, but that's not happening. He is not on that level to get 8.x million $ offer...

So let me illustrate you with a quick example for Cernak, in case if he wants to accept it.(for some unknown reason- like he hates to play in tampa.. idk i cant find a good reason.. so you have to find one :) )

$4,227,438 - $6,341,152
1 First Round Pick
1 Third Round Pick

Okay so you say Anaheim is offering him max contract: 6.3 million $ for max years possible.
He accepts the offersheet(see above the reason LUL).

In this case:
TBL probably says: Thanks for the possible top5 unprotected lottery pick and also the freebie the 3rd rounder. ( where we can sometimes find gems).
So we let Cernak go and we trade for a little worse player for much cheaper... but the future will be brighter for the tampa D.

Other scenario we invest with the unprotected 1st round lottery pick and offer it for some serious D-man with good contract.Who is better than Cernak = win for :lightning.
Top10 lottery picks = really huge value... you can get a player like top tier Top3-Top4D, if additional assets even a Top2D might be possible.

Oh now you probably say, no " i meant for 4.2 million $ offersheet. In that case it's an easy match and an extended summer holiday on Hawaii for the GM.(1 less troube to deal with for months).Just ask the Carolina GM about the Aho offersheet. It was the easiest decision of his life... :applaud

I hope you can see now, why these things will not happen. And finally u forget about this "myth". Hopefully together with other people...
Not worth the time to deal with these "scenarios" in any ACGM topic...

You're not the only one who doesn't think through this... Last time i heard in one of these topics... Yzerman is offersheeting Tampa last year for Sergachev... LUL
For sure he will LUL :sarcasm

Yes, with a new CBA soon'ish... things might get different in the future, but the current offersheet system is flawed/bad.
It's working good in NHL EA games hahaaa...(that game is exploitable, unlike real life GM's).
Game AI GM's Vs real life GM's = infinite difference
Forum: Armchair-GM3 mars 2020 à 12 h 25
Sujet: Tampa Fans - Cernak
Cernak for us is like Manson for :ducks. You see where i'm going with this? He stays and we'll resign him to a low'ish caphit.(Most likelely scenario)
Probably less than 4 million $ /year though :-/
It can be a bridge as well.

Shatty i agree is a super good fit for both parties.
It would be best if he stays, but i'm afraid some other GM will ofer him a 3 million $ + contract @ 3 years, which we can't match, unless we somehow trade 4-5 guys away...(Coburn/Paquette/Killorn/Gourde or more...)

I think Foote is not ready based on his AHL performance. (i hope i'm wrong)
I know +- is not the perfect indicator to evaluate a player's performance, but that's the best thing i got atm...
Cernak was +30, the year before we called him up from AHL = super solid rock on the backend --&gt; translated into NHL in 1st year = super solid ---&gt; 2nd year = slump/down year(but still acceptable)

Foote is -6 this year = no improvements in points/defensive game it looks like unfortunately... we really care right now about defense. The old 24/7 tampa offense is gone...(sometimes it comes back for a couple of games)

I will illusrate it with couple of pictures the diff between 2018/2019 vs 2019/2020:

2018/2019:
<img class="for_img" src="https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/shotLocDef/1819/T.B/" alt="T.B">

Vs.

2019/2020:
<img class="for_img" src="https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/shotLocDef/1920/T.B/" alt="T.B">
Forum: NHL Trades3 mars 2020 à 11 h 55
Sujet: (NJD/TBL) - Coleman for Foote and 2020 1st round pick
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>still think it's crazy? football games in itally being played behind closed doors. No fans.
I'm telling you, at the current rate, playoffs might not happen or in a empty arena. Japan looking at closing the Olympics.

Do you really think the draft isn't rigged? As long as they use those cards instead of a hopper......it's rigged. I don't believe the results. Largest TV market got top 2 picks last year because of the $$$.
Couldn't keep having losers there.

As for the man games. It depends who you lose. Yeah 300 man games of 4th liner who cares right? 300 man games 1C and 1D you going to have some real problems. That's why CBJ is so bad now. No Seth Jones.

I think hockey is an offensive game. But if you can't get the puck out of your zone...no offense.

Where in Hungary are you? I fly over Hungary all the time when going to Greece. My company gives me 3 apartments in europe to work.
London, Warsaw and athens.</div></div>

/virustopicon
Oh yeah cancelling lots of sports events it's a possiblity. I just think currently is a little overblown by media. :shakehead

It's not like if you get infected by the virus, you instantly die... last time i heard surviving rate is 95%. So if you are a healthy person(not old/not too young/not pregnant/don't have bad health problems). Then if u get the virus, it's like a bad flu/common cold, maybe little worse, but not life threatening, if u have insurance/u get treatment...
1-3 weeks u feel bad, fever, coughing etc,,, lung problems... then you are fine...
I heard the worst thing is, if you get lung-inflammation... but that's already bad in general... so you need to get treatment for that...
Ofc when u have heart problems already/smoking 1 pack/day/alcohol problems(liver)/blood pressure problems etc.. or taking 10 medicine/day because of bad overall health--&gt; then it's really bad ,like any other disease... but for those people, they should stay home when things get out of control...
You know the people with huge risk factor = can't take any risks, but normal/healthy people should be fine... I think for now the panic is bigger, then the actual threat. But it can get a lot worse i don't deny it...
Fingers crossed it won't be that bad.:-/

Whe we had bird flu, same panic happend... The way i see it. Humanity will live... yeah the olympics might canceled, but that's the biggest event in the world. Smaller events so far are safe imo for now.
School closing/other things are certainly a possibility though. But scientist can invent a new medicine, then probably the problem will be less in couple of months. Fingers crossed a medicine will be available soon'ish. If not, yes things might worse. Fortunately, i'm taking immune strengthening medicine in last 2 months, so if i get the virus, i hope i'll be fine. I usually suffer from flu or other things... i hate being sick... but maybe this cure i'm on will help a little...
/virustopicoff

I live in small city in Cegled.(not too far from Budapest).

As far as lottery goes, yeah that's math again, I'm following last years the lottery balls procedures and i know it inside out.
<strong>It's perfectly random. It's a good system.</strong>
It's like they have 1000 numbers. 1-1000.
185 random numbers assigned to Detroit in this 1-1000 range.(18.5% comes out this way)
150 numbers assigned to 2nd place team(15%)
125 to 3rd...(12.5%)
rest of teams less and less...

So they do it 1 by 1 number at the time of the drawing... with air pressure drawing the balls out from a bowl.(like a real lottery, where the stake is 10 million $+)

So the numbers are already assigned to team before the lottery.
So whatever actually happening is already determined on a paper/pdf file.
There is a pdf file each year, where you can look up what number means each team. Like Tampa made the playoffs. They get 0 numbers from the 1000. Odds tampa wins = 0% :)
0-1000: all numbers belong to only 16 teams
So lets say illustrate it with random numbers for Chicago. They had super low % last year to get Nr. 3 overall.
They had a number like 870 + like 30 other numbers only. = low odds % . They are praying that 8 -7 - 0 gets drawn... fast forward to the lottery machine drawing the balls...
The 3rd draw happend. (1st + 2nd won by NJD+NYR)
Number is:
8
7
0

:blackhawks gets 3rd overall, simple as that.
<strong>If it would've been rigged: You need to rig the air pressure in the lottery machine... you can see the balls in the videos fighting for the spot to win. It's on the youtube/nhl.com site...</strong>
In this case:
Ball Nr. 8 won the first fight :)
Ball nr. 7 won the 2nd fight :)
Ball nr. 0 won the last fight :)

If the last number Ball Nr. 1 wins hyptetically, it's a good chance number 871 belongs to another team = Chicago doesnt get to pick nr 3 overall ---&gt; like minnesota gets to pick Nr 3...

These are just random example to illustrate how it works...


Let's say hypotetically a team like Ottawa has a number for 399 for this year's lottery.
Besides the countless of other numbers they have ( because they will finish bottom 5 in the standings most likely)
If the number 3 - 9 - 9 will be drawn. :senators get's the 1st overall pick.
The numbers assigned it's also random so it's not like 0-200 = detroit. Detroit has numbers like 111 - 152 - 398- 400 - 777 etc.. so they might have 398 and 400 but the number is 399 so they just got unlucky and they lose the 1st overall pick.
I hope i explained it good.
if not, look up on internet some articles :) It's as tranparent as it gets... like a lottery drawn in your country... the lucky person wins... in this case... the luckiest team wins haha ;)
Unless you can solve random air pressure, it's impossible to get rigged. So far air pressure = random.
0-9 balls. 1 wins each round. Every ball has 10% chance to win each round. = impossible to predict.
That's why you have 1000 numbers so u can assign 185 numbers to the worst team in the league. So detroit will have exactly 18.5% chance of drawing their number :)
185/1000 = 0.185 chance * 100 = 18.5% to win the lottery, simple as that.
In my opinion it should be changed to more %, so like 30%. I feel 18.5% is too low.
So Detroit will probably get f*ked by the lottery this year...
Ottawa has multiple lottery 1st round picks = ottawa = can be insane winners :)

I just simulated one on tankathon.com:
<img class="for_img" src="https://i.imgur.com/hUNkfAG.png" alt="hUNkfAG.png">

You see it's not rigged :) Ottawa can win it, because SJ was insane to give up their 1st for Karlsson.This draft will be super fun, whoever wins :)

I just hope :redwings get Lafreniere, so Atlantic becomes stronger = tampa will have more competetion future years. 4 games / year vs detroit = not that much fun when they are tanking...
Fun fact :bruins lost 5 games in a row vs detroit last year + this year... they just won only the 6th :)
So last 6 games Boston vs Detroit: 1-5 LUL
This is the Boston team, which we should beat in 2nd round in the playoffs, if we get past Toronto :) You said they will wreck us. I have my doubts. :) Without Stamkos they have better chance. We'll see if Stamkos will be back by then, or not... it's like 3% worse for us without Stamkos in any matchup... Stamkos still good, even though he usually chokes in the playoffs :(
<strong>Latest odds: 73% that TBL-Tor playoffs 1st round happening...</strong> It's gonna be fun, i hope we don't lose LUL
Nr. 1 offense vs Nr. 2 offense That's gonna be lot of goals... hahahaa...

<strong>Newest playoffs predictions East:</strong>

Tampa-Boston--&gt; Tampa(4-3)
Philly-NYI--&gt;NYI (2-4) - based on this years matchup results, philly is in trouble

:lightning vs :islanders conference finals
Matchup: 1wins-2losses this year, but i think we can beat them in a 7 game series. With the help of Goodrow/Coleman(+maybe Stamkos back by then) vs Pageau.

Eastern Conference Champions:
:lightning

St. Louis i think will get an upset by some lower ranked teams and Vegas makes it to the finals/other suprise team...(maybe Edmonton, but they don't have a good goalie so i have no idea)
Vs :goldenknights i think we still lose. Vs other teams we can win though :)

If St. Louis makes it 2 years in a row(unlikely)= we are 0-4 sweeped for sure ------&gt;"The Nightmare" :cry

BTW.:
<strong>What happend with your :penguins. I have similar feelings to last year, where i can't see the fire in your team.</strong>
Is it fatigue/bad trades(Marleau too old+Kahun looks good in Buffalo)/injuries catched up?
I expect your team go out 1st round now... i know... u don't like to hear it.... but you guys are losing to every single team right now, where i expect Pens to win... Losing to San jose lottery team to 5:0
Seriously? like WTF? San Jose has injuries like Karlsson as welll... how that happend? losing 5-4 is ok, but 5-0?
I totally predicted a 4-2 Pittsburgh win even at away... this parity in the league jesus...

Can you guys win today finally? Your opponent = :senators = super easy?
Metro is hard, so maybe it's time to win a couple? :)
TBL just won vs Calgary = playoff team, next up is Boston = top1 team in the league.
I think we lose today haha, Boston has better form, then us.
I don't think we win this one, even though this matchup is good for us... Last 12 games : 10-2 for us... So either 11-1 or 10-3. We'll see, i expect the 10-3 :/
Sometimes Boston should win 1 or 2 games vs tampa haha.
Boston now is a lock for president's trophy = curse
But we have so much points... and Florida is 1 million miles away in playoffs race... so worst case it's 3rd in atlantic... for us losing = not that bad , but for your team? You also lost to Buffalo at home 5:2, how in the world that happend? :huh
Forum: Armchair-GM3 mars 2020 à 10 h 22
Sujet: 2020-21
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JTBF81</b></div><div>I don't think Cirelli or Serg hits 5 million imo. I think both will be bridged in the ~4 range but could see 4.5 or maybe 4.75. Cernak will be less, 2.5 tops but wouldn't be surprised if it's closer to 2. With Killorn, Paquette and likely Coburn moved, that frees up 7.75 million. That plus a cap increase of 2.5 million gives Tampa enough to get them signed. I don't think Gourde, Palat or TJ waive, and JBB has to weigh the likely better return for Killorn vs the lesser return for TJ or Gourde and the extra 500-700k in cap relief that would bring. It's unfortunate that Killorn is likely gone, but Tampa will get a great return after his performance this season. Paquette and Coburn are much less hurtful losses.</div></div>

They don't have a choice. AHL/waivers/buried/termination... or waive NTC. They will choose waive NTC. Their best interest. When u have multiple players with NTC, it's easy to convince 1. If you have only 1 in the whole team, and you need to convince that 1 dude. That's much harder. But we have lots... So someone has to go...

I think it's Gourde.
Killorn/Johnson/Gourde --&gt; 2/3 gone --&gt; if not, impossible to have a good roster for next year... unless we can find a new "Shattenkirk". 1.5 million $ caphit = solid player.
The way i see now:
<strong>We traded for Coleman to replace Killorn.
And we traded for Goodrow to replace Gourde.</strong>
So our team's overall strength will be kinda the same next year.
If Shattenkirk leaves = we will be weaker though, whatever happens... I hope Shattenkirk chooses 2 million $ Tampa's offer vs 3 million $ :panthers( or insert here any other mediocre/bad team offer... If a good team like Philly/Wash/Pittsb offers him 3.5 mill+, i think he also leaves :(

I have a feeling some GM will offer him 3+ million $ @ 3 years... then he leaves :cry Stralman got offered an insane out of the world 5 million $ + contract jeez ...
Forum: Armchair-GM3 mars 2020 à 10 h 10
Sujet: Completely doable
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Weezley</b></div><div>So much over exaggerating when you talk. 😂</div></div>

Just stating easy facts for n00bs :help , when i see out of the world trades...:cry


If you think Manson will get traded, you have to expect a deep return. Otherwise, :ducks just keeping him.
He is a top2D, he plays amazing anytime i see him play, he is still quite young(in defenders's age) , he kills PK's. He is physical.
He had a little slump earlier this year. His value went down, Just like Josh Anderson from :bluejackets.
But guess what. When someone's value is down. You still can't aquire a solid (let's just say, he is weaker, than i think by a lot ) Top3D for peanuts. Or a solid middle6 forward.
He has still 2 more full years left at a pretty nice ~ around 4 million $ caphit. Just what Tampa or Toronto would've needed, if he was available to trade.<strong> Hint: he wasn't.</strong>

Toronto has no assets to aquire Manson. Johnsson is a 3rd liner, Bracco is AHL level player right now(possibly top9 player future). Dermott is Top6D.
Manson is not like Muzzin, who only worth a 1st, who is aging and already regressing.(more injuries coming in the next 4 years + perfromance declining).
When you want to aquire a prime age top3D(25-30 years), you have to pay a lot.
If you disagree, then show me your ACGM's topics, where you aquire from any team to any team a top Defender who is close to his prime.
Then we'll see, if those players who you just showcased---&gt; will stay or leave in the next few years. Let me guess, you won't do it, because it won't happen. Just like suggestions in these topics.

<strong>Let me clarify one more time. When a player has a lot of term left and not on trade block. Price is insanely high</strong>, unless that said player on trade block and having career worst year and hopeless future.(and over 30)
Even when Ristolainen had a -40 careeer down year, his value was the lowest ever. He still wouldn't get traded... 1 year later, he still didn't... In this case, Ristolainen = Manson. Teams not making trades just for the sake of it with high caliber players. Unless they have a reason. To help Toronto/insert any other team win the Stanley-Cup is not a reason for Anaheim to trade him.
Result = he stays, until Anaheim get's a crazy offer, which they can't refuse. I help you Johnson + Liljegren is a bad offer. If i could rate it: 1/10. Johnsson(3rd liner) + Dermott(top6 D on most teams) + 2nd round pick(late) = below mediocre offer. That's why i said, it starts with a first round pick ( again probably late) or Nylander ( solid top 6 player). Then go from there. Really easy stuff. For 3 weak pieces, you cannot aquire strong players, who are not on trade block. If Johnsson will be on trade block with dermott in couple of months. Their value = even lower...

Let's examine Dumba. Uhh, everybody imagined him getting traded, because he had a bad year. Guess what: Toronto offered Johnson/Kap + other medicore pieces.
:wild said: no thanks. Keep your Barrie forever, together with Johnsson/Kapanen/Bracco.

I expect Manson to be moved at 2020/2021 trade deadline for a steep package, like Coleman/Zucker 's return. 1st round + prospect + (player).
Or 2021/2022 TDL for a cheaper pricetag for a pure rental for 25 games --&gt; like 2nd round + mediocre prospect. Or ~ 2nd round+3rd round. If bidding war, maybe even more. Hard to predict that far into the future.

TLDR: Manson stays in Anaheim for a while.... unless a super high offer comes in by any team. And it probably won't be Toronto...(they don't have the pieces), except if they are willing to give up high quality assets...
Forum: Armchair-GM26 févr. 2020 à 21 h 24
Sujet: Completely doable
Manson starts with a 1st from Toronto, or Nylander.
Otherwise let's just hang up the phone... - the ducks GM says

Keyword:Starts.... u go from there... before some xpert here says Nylander is 2 times more valuable, than that defender...

Good luck getting him for 2nd's... He is not a rental...
Johnsson+Liljegren LUL Those are not main pieces, don't overvalue your low salary/rookie'ish players... If he is on the trade block ever... bidding war will start for him... almost whole league wants a solid RHD for a "capfriendly" contract. Next GM in 1 hour gives a better offer than that... and then all others follows...
Coleman trade was Top prospect + 1st and everybody on this site think Coleman = sux...

Zucker trade look it up... Solid NHL player(whatever bad form Galch played in Pens jersey, before that, he was still a good goalscorer, like 0.5 point/game = good) + solid prospect(not mediocre) + 1st round pick
Copy the Zucker trade, and go from there... ~around

IMO Manson &gt; Zucker valuewise but you can disagree... But it's fair to say they are quite even... Top2 D vs Top6 F