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Forum: Armchair-GM9 sept. 2020 à 9 h 35
Sujet: DeBrusk comes home
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ON3M4N</b></div><div>No even close. BTW fun fact, Studnicka was drafted using the Oilers picks that Boston received because Edmonton hired PC.</div></div>

CD282 put this together on Nurse value
Your totally under value Nurse and over rating Jake’s Value

Just thought I'd compare Nurse's past 3 years with some of the generally accepted "#1D" at the same age. It's not a perfect comp due to play-style differences of course, but I'm hoping it'll give some idea of where Nurse is in his development.

Nurse: 2017-18 to 2019-20
Jones: 2017-18 to 2019-20
Hedman: 2013-14 to 2015-16
Pietrangelo: 2012-13 to 2014-15
Josi: 2012-13 to 2014-15
Doughty: 2012-13 to 2014-15
Burns: 2007-08 to 2009-10

5v5 TOI/GP
Doughty: 19:39
Jones: 19:14
Josi: 19:12
Nurse: 19:02
Pietrangelo: 18:04
Hedman: 16:40
Burns: 16:03

Doughty has played crazy minutes since entering the league - still does - but Jones, Josi and Nurse are all in the range at the same age. Pietrangelo is nearly a full minute less while Hedman and Burns are way down.

5v5 Boxcars
Hedman: 212, 22-60-82
Nurse: 235, 17-60-77
Pietrangelo: 209, 12-57-69
Jones: 209, 17-48-65
Josi: 201, 22-42-64
Doughty: 208, 12-37-49
Burns: 188, 8-29-37

Nurse is second overall in part due to playing more games than the others. That's a feature, not a bug, although for 3 of these players we're including the lockout shortened season, so Pietrangelo, Josi and Doughty have an excuse for having played less. Nurse didn't miss a single game in the timeframe in question.

5v5 P/60
Hedman: 1.39
Pietrangelo: 1.10
Nurse: 1.03
Josi: 0.99
Jones: 0.97
Burns: 0.74
Doughty: 0.72

Nurse is right in the range with Pietrangelo, Josi and Jones, and 3rd overall. Burns was nowhere near his prime and Hedman is ahead of the others at the same age. Of course, Hedman's TOI and puckiq.com numbers indicate that he wasn't playing 1st pair until the last of the 3 years, so that could have something to do with his offensive numbers. When you look at each year individually, you'll see that the year he played 1st pairing his scoring rates were the lowest.

Hits/60
Nurse: 5.92
Doughty: 5.69
Burns: 3.86
Jones: 3.40
Hedman: 3.06
Josi: 1.55
Peitrangelo: 1.54

Shots Blocked/60
Josi: 5.14
Pietrangelo: 4.46
Nurse: 4.44
Jones: 4.33
Hedman: 4.26
Doughty: 2.79
Burns: 2.76

I wouldn't normally bother with things like Hits and Blocked Shots, but I wanted to throw them in there to show the differences between these players' styles. Josi and Pietrangelo aren't very physical, but both block shots well. Burns and Doughty are physical but don't block a lot of shots, while Nurse plays more like Jones and Hedman, but more physical than both. It's worth giving this a second mention: Nurse is more physical than Doughty in his hey-day. That's incredible. So let's look at some more defensive metrics, corrected for team strength ("relative" metrics).

Shot Against/60 Rel (and SF% Rel)
Hedman: -1.85 (+3.70)
Jones: -0.93 (+3.05)
Doughty: 0.09 (+1.26)
Burns: 0.44 (+1.02)
Nurse: 1.1 (+0.30)
Pietrangelo: 2.24 (-0.65)
Josi: 3.21 (-0.45)

Man, it really isn't easy to play 1st pairing at 23-25 years old. Almost everyone here puts up worse SA/60 numbers than their teammates whom they sheltered, although to be fair Burns wan't playing 1st pairing and Hedman was only 1 of the 3 years. For reference, a positive SA/60 Rel number is bad, while a positive SF% Rel number is good. So while Nurse allowed marginally more shots against than his teammates, he created enough Shots For that his overall % was positive, although only slightly. Nurse is clearly behind Jones and Doughty but well ahead of Pietrangelo and Josi.

Goals Against/60 Rel (and GF% Rel)
Josi: -0.05 (+2.55)
Burns: -0.02 (+4.32)
Nurse: 0.05 (+4.54)
Jones: 0.09 (+0.60)
Hedman: 0.13 (5.81)
Doughty: 0.20 (-0.54)
Pietrangelo: 0.35 (-0.43)

In this metric Nurse shines, allowing basically team average goals against but while playing much harder comp than everyone else. Notice how practically everyone in this group allows more goals than their teammates? First pairing is hard. The players here are tightly grouped, but you can see from the GF% Rel that 3 players - Hedman, Nurse and Burns - produced enough GF Rel to make a significant difference for their team while on the ice. We can see that shots allowed is not a great predictor for goals allowed due in part to shot quality and distance, so they came up with an "Expected Goals" metric to try and correct for this:

Expected Goals Against/60 Rel (and xGF% Rel)
Hedman: -0.02 (+2.18)
Doughty: -0.01 (+1.11)
Jones: 0.05 (+0.39)
Burns: 0.06 (+1.10)
Josi: 0.08 (+0.03)
Nurse: 0.12 (+0.04)
Pietrangelo: 0.25 (-1.46)

Only Pietrangelo is behind the pack here, all 6 of the others are all within the same range. Nurse is at the bottom of the range, but this is a very good group of players to be hanging around with. Okay, just one more stat to give colour to all the above stats...

Defensive Zone Faceoffs/60 (Off. Zone Faceoff %)
Josi: 24.57 (44.89)
Pietrangelo: 19.91 (50.55)
Nurse: 18.67 (48.84)
Burns: 18.19 (46.14)
Doughty: 17.93 (54.18)
Jones: 17.26 (56.54)
Hedman: 17.00 (56.98)

If you look back at the Shots Against list, you'll see that Nurse, Pietrangelo and Josi ranked 5,6 and 7 respectively. Now you can see why - they were sent out for the most defensive zone faceoffs. The defenseman has nothing to do with losing the faceoff and very little control over the resulting shot / shot attempt. This list also explains why those three rank at the bottom for xGA/60 and at the top of the Shots Blocked list too - and makes the fact that Nurse and Josi are strong in the actual Goals Against metric even more impressive.

So what do you think? Do these numbers stand up to the fact that you "seen him bad", or do they show Nurse on a track to remain one of the leagues best over the coming decade?
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