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Dorkko

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Forum: NHL Signings9 oct. 2023 à 16 h 58
Sujet: Buffalo Sabres signed Rasmus Dahlin (8 Years / $11,000,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>phillyjabroni</b></div><div>Not to get too deep into the mathematical side of this, but I think its important to consider this deal in the broader context of what other players, such as Makar, Miro, and Q. Hughes signed back in 2021-22 to have a better understanding of the value of Dahlin's deal. We should consider the Present Value of all these deals, in their entirety, back in 2021-22 by discounting them back based on the annual cap increase YoY. For this purpose, I assumed a 4.79% growth in 2024-25 and 5.14% growth in 2025-26, and a constant 4.00% growth each year thereafter. Let's consider:

<strong>Miro Heiskanen</strong>
Present Value: $57,703,775
Term: 8 years
AAV: $7,212,972

<strong>Cale Makar</strong>
Present Value: $48,044,169
Term: 6 years
AAV: $8,007,362

<strong>Quinn Hughes</strong>
Present Value: $41,905,192
Term: 6 years
AAV: $6,984,199

When combining the bridge and long term deal of Dahlin, we can get a better picture of what this contract is worth:
<strong>Rasmus Dahlin</strong>
Present Value: $82,720,365
Term: 11 years
AAV: $7,520,033

We can see that Dahlin is right in line with other star defensemen, although on the higher end in terms of AAV. However, if we extrapolate and assume that the next contracts of Makar, Heiskanen, and Hughes all start with an initial Cap Hit % of 12% with a duration of 7 years, we can consider the value of these contracts:

<strong>Miro Heiskanen</strong>
Present Value: $114,345,394
Term: 15 years
AAV: $7,623,026

<strong>Cale Makar</strong>
Present Value: $104,685,789
Term: 13 years
AAV: $8,052,753

<strong>Quinn Hughes</strong>
Present Value: $98,546,812
Term: 13 years
AAV: $7,580,524

<strong>Rasmus Dahlin</strong>
Present Value: $82,720,365
Term: 11 years
AAV: $7,520,033

I think it is an accurate and fair assumption to consider Dahlin is the same category of skill and rank of these similar players. So even though the sticker shock is quite high, he is effectively the least expensive out of the other players under these assumptions. For reference, Makar and Miro are going to be pushing a minimum 12M-13M on the open market, while Dahlin will never see that day until 2032.</div></div>

Amazing contribution! Loved this mathematical breakdown. If you do these breakdowns often somewhere, I'd totally sign up to read it (maybe even with a paywall).