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Ctgoalie

Membre depuis
10 juin 2018
Équipe favorite
Bruins de Boston
Deuxième équipe favorite
Sharks de San Jose
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Forum: Armchair-GM17 févr. 2019 à 14 h 48
Forum: Armchair-GM16 févr. 2019 à 14 h 3
Sujet: WHAT IF
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Club_de_Hockey_le_Canadien</b></div><div>Correct me if I'm wrong but, I think there is a 0.7% chance that this happens.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ctgoalie</b></div><div>Your correct, if the season ended today there is a 0.7% Colorado ends up with both the 1st and 2nd overall picks.</div></div>

This is incorrect. You are ignoring the possibility that the COL pick is #1 and the OTT pick is #2, you are also not considering that the probability of getting the 2nd pick increases after the 1st pick is announced.

P(COL getting top 2 picks) = P(COL getting #1)*P(OTT getting #2 given that COL already got #1) + P(OTT getting #1)*P(COL getting #2 given that OTT already got #1)

It ends up at around 1.44% (based on wikipedia lottery odds from the 2018 draft)
Forum: Armchair-GM4 févr. 2019 à 9 h 28
Sujet: Perfect Fit
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ctgoalie</b></div><div>I don't think loosing Krug would be as big of a hole as people make it him out to be. Yes we would miss his offense from the back end but it we got the a quality Top 6 right wing that would be pretty easily offset. It would also make our defense better in out own end and we are already sitting at 4th in the league with 2.63 Goals Against a Game, and we have plenty of LD in the system ready to step up. I do agree that buying Toffoli low could be a low risk high reward move and possibly the best option. I actually really like the John Moore contract, he plays above his pay at worst is a very tradable asset if we need to move him.</div></div>


I agree completely. Krug is the most traceable asset in terms of returning value and team impact. Krug is great, but a defensive liability. If you add a quality forward then your team is going to improve by bettering the D and adding secondary scoring. AND, giving Krug his pay raise when his contract is up is not fiscally sound. He will not be worth his next free agent deal. Trading him not gets a team a player that is under contract through next season too and not solely a rental. Too many people live in this philosophy: kRuG sCoReS sO mAnY pOiNtS, yOu cAn'T tRaDe hIm!