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Buster_Bennett

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20 juin 2023
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Predators de Nashville
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Forum: NHL Trades27 juin 2023 à 13 h 53
Sujet: (PHI/STL) - Hayes for 2024 6th (STL)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jpsnow13</b></div><div>Paying a player $8.5M to play somewhere else.

I just don't get it. Why are teams paying soo much to get rid of salary when the UFA market has nothing to offer?

The best guess I have is plain thanking.</div></div>

Google sunk cost fallacy.

They aren't paying a player to play somewhere else. They are creating usable cap space, which is an asset.

The 10M+ in cap space Briere created is more valuable than Hayes. Hayes was a sunk cost because no one was going to take him on his contract. A buyout would clear less money than this trade, and it would be spread over 6 years, not 3.

There are lots of smart hockey people on this website, but I am always amazed that great cap related moves like this that are really easy to understand the motivation behind seem to fly over the heads of so many posters on a website dedicated to the salary cap. If this was Reddit or HFboards or something, like whatever that's a general hockey forum I don't expect everybody to be nutty about how the cap works over there.

I cannot get over the absurdity of people calling out Briere for creating a ton of cap space for a player there was no market for without giving up any assets. The Flyers get no value out of Hayes playing for them, and at his age and size he is at a high risk of declining. Arizona has dropped out as a cap dumping ground, the cap did not go up, there are going to be opportunities to turn that 3.5M into multiple 2nd or 3rd round picks via taking on bad contracts. Chicago just got a 2nd+4th for taking on Zaitsev at the deadline and he only had 1 year of term remaining at 4.5M, among numerous other examples.

They have a reasonable chance of parlaying this cap space into multiple draft picks. It isn't guaranteed, but it is a reasonable outcome based on how frequently teams have paid 2nd or 3rd round picks to dump contracts in the 3.5M range with limited term. If the title of this thread was Hayes for 2nd+2nd+6th, people would be calling Briere a genius. Well, that's what he will likely end up with, maybe even more.

This is an excellent trade by Briere. The market for dumping these contracts is going to close quickly as teams use their available cap space. He did a great job to capitalize on the bad FA market and create cap flexibility that can be used to acquire further assets.
Forum: NHL Trades27 juin 2023 à 13 h 29
Sujet: (PHI/STL) - Hayes for 2024 6th (STL)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Roperttos</b></div><div>Easy win for the Blues. Getting a Hayes at only 3,5 mil for a 6th is great. Philly lost all leverage after the Johansen trade</div></div>

They never had leverage. Hayes is north of 30 with lots of term and up and down play. They did not have an alternate option, since a buyout would cost them more than retaining half.

Cap space is a weapon when rebuilding. Nobody else was going to take Hayes. Sitting on him wasn't going to raise his value.

Free agency is bad this year, so teams seem to be turning to each other to take bad mid-term contracts instead of going into free agency and signing worse contracts. GMs of rebuilding teams seem to be using this as an opportunity to fix mistakes and create cap flexibility to work with for the rebuild. The half retained on contracts like Hayes and Johansen are sunk costs. That's what people fail to understand. There isn't magically going to be a way to spark up a market for these kind of players. It's just not going to happen. Philadelphia, Boston, and Nashville are all likely thrilled to clear the cap they did, even if it didn't return any real assets. That same opportunity may not be there next off season.
Forum: NHL Trades26 juin 2023 à 11 h 17
Sujet: (NSH/COL) - Johansen for Galchenyuk
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Koskinen_The_Great</b></div><div>From Pierre Lebrun at theathletic...

<strong>"There’s no money in the system, ” Predators general manager Barry Trotz told The Athletic over the phone Sunday afternoon. “So I wanted to make sure I got money in the system”

In other words, creating $4 million of cap room for the next two years was worth it for the Predators even though it meant $4 million in dead cap space by retaining half of Johansen’s $8 million cap hit. It’s not about spending that cap money now. It’s more of projecting out as the new GM continues to tweak this roster in his reset of the organization.

“I’m projecting out,” Trotz said. “I’m in a different window."</strong>

Trotz just confirmed the obvious. Pain now in a rebuild for freedom later when the cap jumps.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Goorts</b></div><div>The $4mil in cap space doesn't mean much this season, but means EVERYTHING next season.
Tomasino, Parssinen, Novak and Fabbro all need new contracts after this year.

If they all take steps forward this year, we may be looking at a situation similar to what Buffalo just did and bet on their young talent and sign them to long term deals.
That $4mil next year will be very important.</div></div>

And confirms that a buyout would NOT have helped that situation either. Interesting to see if there is any movement on Duchene next.
Forum: NHL Trades26 juin 2023 à 10 h 43
Sujet: (NSH/COL) - Johansen for Galchenyuk
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Koskinen_The_Great</b></div><div>From Pierre Lebrun at theathletic...

<strong>"There’s no money in the system, ” Predators general manager Barry Trotz told The Athletic over the phone Sunday afternoon. “So I wanted to make sure I got money in the system”

In other words, creating $4 million of cap room for the next two years was worth it for the Predators even though it meant $4 million in dead cap space by retaining half of Johansen’s $8 million cap hit. It’s not about spending that cap money now. It’s more of projecting out as the new GM continues to tweak this roster in his reset of the organization.

“I’m projecting out,” Trotz said. “I’m in a different window."</strong>

Trotz just confirmed the obvious. Pain now in a rebuild for freedom later when the cap jumps.</div></div>

The $4mil in cap space doesn't mean much this season, but means EVERYTHING next season.
Tomasino, Parssinen, Novak and Fabbro all need new contracts after this year.

If they all take steps forward this year, we may be looking at a situation similar to what Buffalo just did and bet on their young talent and sign them to long term deals.
That $4mil next year will be very important.
Forum: NHL Trades26 juin 2023 à 10 h 3
Sujet: (NSH/COL) - Johansen for Galchenyuk
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Koskinen_The_Great</b></div><div>Nashville wont be a contender in the next 2 years. Years 3-4 is what they are thinking to use this new cap flexibility. Its a rebuild move, cost cutting move. There is no loss here. Its a sunk cost on Ryjo.



Fair and realistic are two different things. Yes, in theory that may be fair but it takes another team to offer that! Its clear the market has no takers right now for salary beyond this season unless at a massive discount.</div></div>

From Pierre Lebrun at theathletic...

<strong>"There’s no money in the system, ” Predators general manager Barry Trotz told The Athletic over the phone Sunday afternoon. “So I wanted to make sure I got money in the system”

In other words, creating $4 million of cap room for the next two years was worth it for the Predators even though it meant $4 million in dead cap space by retaining half of Johansen’s $8 million cap hit. It’s not about spending that cap money now. It’s more of projecting out as the new GM continues to tweak this roster in his reset of the organization.

“I’m projecting out,” Trotz said. “I’m in a different window."</strong>

Trotz just confirmed the obvious. Pain now in a rebuild for freedom later when the cap jumps.
Forum: NHL Trades25 juin 2023 à 16 h 45
Sujet: (NSH/COL) - Johansen for Galchenyuk
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CameronSquires</b></div><div>NSH should've tried to get at least a 5th rounder minimum and tried to sign Galchenyuk in FA</div></div>

That is a bit of a nit pick to say they should have gotten a 5th rounder. That is negligible value wise and doesn't change the concept of the deal.

Johansen did not have trade protection. They traded him within the same division with the max salary retention for nothing. That is a pretty damning indication that they had zero leverage. People in this thread are years behind on the player. They didn't trade the Johansen of 5 years ago. Colorado took all the risk in this deal.

Here is how you logically evaluate the deal.

If you are Nashville, and Johansen's contract was expiring this off season, would you retain him on a 2 year extension with a 4M AAV? Probably not. Therefore, trading him was the right move.

If your are Colorado, and Johansen was a UFA, would you sign him to a 2 year contract with a 4M AAV?

He is a flawed player at this point, but Colorado may have looked at the UFA market and determined that it was a risk worth taking. There is also the reasonable possibility that this is a win/win deal. Colorado didn't have the same baggage that Nashville does with the player. In Nashville, he was positioned as a core guy and likely a primary leader. In Colorado, he comes into an established room and team structure as a complementary player on a team that already has their leadership core sorted out ahead of him.

There were a bunch of hot quotes about Phil Kessel winning all these cups, despite accusations that he was a poor leader, but there is a difference between being positioned as the star of a team who is expected to be a primary leader, and coming into a team like Pittsburgh that already has those guys, or even going to a team like Vegas as a complimentary veteran who isn't going to play every night. I have no idea if Phil Kessel was bad in Toronto or whatever, but the point is that if he was a cancer in Toronto as a primary leader, winning the cup as a depth veteran in Vegas doesn't invalidate that.

Nashville wins the trade because they get something tangible and defined without risk. That is, 4M x 2 years in cap space. This could be an Adin Hill type trade where we look back and a player vastly outperformed what was expected when they were acquired, but odds are Colorado either regrets this deal, or it ends up being mostly irrelevant with Johansen living up to his deal but not exceeding it by much.
Forum: NHL Trades24 juin 2023 à 14 h 33
Sujet: (NSH/COL) - Johansen for Galchenyuk
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>sensonfire</b></div><div>I disagree.


1. Nashville would have had 2.666 million in dead cap from buying out RoJo versus 4 million from retaining his salary.


2. Nashville gave the decision-making power over buying out RoJo to Colorado.


3. I highly doubt Colorado will decide to buy out RoJo.</div></div>

Nashville wont be a contender in the next 2 years. Years 3-4 is what they are thinking to use this new cap flexibility. Its a rebuild move, cost cutting move. There is no loss here. Its a sunk cost on Ryjo.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>sensonfire</b></div><div>1. And Nashville just gave a player from their core group to a division rival for free.


2. A fair deal for RoJo with 50% retention would be a 2nd round pick, not Galchenyuk's signing rights.</div></div>

Fair and realistic are two different things. Yes, in theory that may be fair but it takes another team to offer that! Its clear the market has no takers right now for salary beyond this season unless at a massive discount.
Forum: NHL Trades24 juin 2023 à 22 h 41
Sujet: (NSH/COL) - Johansen for Galchenyuk
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Koskinen_The_Great</b></div><div>Hometown fans act like they are in the locker room lmao With the all the information out there on the internet.. hometown fans are probably the least knowledgable when it comes to their own teams cause of bias. Trotz made the mature and tactically correct maneuver when simply looking at the hard cap and the likely increase that could perhaps happen in 2025. Books are now cleared. Saros is the real domino to fall in Nashville.</div></div>

For sure. Cap isn't an issue in Nashville. They have drafted really well. I don't think they need a rebuild as much as a quick shuffle. They really need quality time for Eangelista Tomasino Parsinen Afanasyev Askarov etc. Lots of good kids in the pipes.
Forum: NHL Trades24 juin 2023 à 17 h 40
Forum: NHL Trades24 juin 2023 à 18 h 8
Sujet: (NSH/COL) - Johansen for Galchenyuk
Forget about Galchenyuk. He’s about to become a UFA, so putting his name on this just says that there’s no future considerations here – this really is a trade for nothing.

Considering the number of teams we hear are seeking a #2 center this summer, this trade tells us that nobody thinks Johansen is that guy, except maybe Colorado, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re still looking for #2 and would prefer to slot Johansen at #3. $4M is not unreasonable for a good #3 center who could probably step into the #2 slot in a pinch, but that’s 2x4M that they no longer have available to spend on a stronger #2 center or some other need, so I don’t necessarily think this is the steal a lot of people are saying.

Nashville clearly wanted some cap space, so whether this makes sense depends on what they do with it. They had three other options: Keep him, buy him out, or kick in another asset to get somebody to take him with less retention. We don’t know if anybody was willing to do the last option, so you have to look at the 2x$4M they retained as money already spent. Would it be worth another 2x$4M on top of that to keep him? Again, it depends on what they do with the cap space. A buyout would have cost them more money than the retention - $10.7M versus $8M – but it would have been spread over 4 years instead of 2. Whether that’s better depends on whether they’ll need cap space more in the next two years or the two years after that. I don’t know what their plan is.

This is why I don’t like no-move clauses. If Johansen had one, he could have refused the trade and Nashville’s only options would be to keep him or buy him out. By having the foresight not to give him one, they made this trade a viable option.
Forum: NHL Trades24 juin 2023 à 13 h 37
Sujet: (NSH/COL) - Johansen for Galchenyuk
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ArmchairGM89</b></div><div>This move is so confusing as a Nashville fan. I knew ryjo was basically gone when Trotz was talking about his skating &amp; the team needing to be faster. However, our biggest hole right now is at Center. The retention isn’t a surprise, I wish it was less than half but 4m is still a good amount of open space. Believe that gives the preds 20m or so. I really think Debrincat ends up in Nashville this week &amp; they make a play for a center in trade or FA.</div></div>

There has bin rumblings that Nashville may buy out Duchenne or Johanson. With a buyout they would have had a 2.667 Mill cap hit over four years, or 2.667 million more then a buyout (10.667). Being able to get out of the contract without attaching a sweetener is a win for Nashville. They don't need the cap space this year but want the extra space in year free avoiding a buyout gets them.