Leafs Fans Are the Best

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Créé par: fangm

Équipe: 2023-24 Équipe personnalisée

Date de création initiale: 31 janv. 2024

Publié: 31 janv. 2024

Mode - plafond salarial: Basique

Description

Just for fun, I ran a web scrapper on CapFriendly ran two tests:

1. Compared every fanbase's trade proposal values to Dom Luszczyszyn's model. I factored the value of players by (i) the value of their contracts; if it was over/under market value, (ii) their market value, (iii) their analytical contributions, (iv) age. This gave a value for each player, similar to how he does his trade proposals. Then I was able to rank which fan bases were closest to fair value trades.

2. Compared all Zadorov Related trade proposals from Leafs, Flames, Canucks fans that only included Zadorov for picks. Used the pick value chart that draft experts use that assigns a value to each pick and assumed every team would finish this year and any other year in the same position they are now. Then used it to judge who was closest in trade value.

For Zadorov Trades:
1. Leafs fans - Off by an average of 17.43%
2. Canucks fans - Off by an average of 29.28%
3. Flames fans - Off by an average of 2203.83%

Flames fan literally overvalued Zadorov by 22x (probably more since the model didn't account for the pick they got being 3 years away).

Here are the fan base trade rankings:

FORMATION

VUE À LONG TERME

INTÉGRÉ

TEXTE INTÉGRÉ

TAILLE DE LA FORMATION	PLAFOND SALARIAL	CAP HIT	EXCÉDENTS	BONIS	ESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
32	83 500 000 $	107 024 167 $	0 $	3 382 500 $	-23 524 167 $

Ailier gauche	Centre	Ailier droit
Keller, Clayton 7 150 000 $7 150 000 $ AG, AD UFA - 5
Bertuzzi, Tyler 5 500 000 $5 500 000 $ AG, AD NMC UFA - 1
Mantha, Anthony 2 850 000 $2 850 000 $ AG, AD UFA - 1
Barbashev, Ivan 5 000 000 $5 000 000 $ AG, AD M-NTC UFA - 5
Cousins, Nick 1 100 000 $1 100 000 $ AG, C UFA - 1
Duclair, Anthony 3 000 000 $3 000 000 $ AG, AD UFA - 1
Blais, Samuel 1 000 000 $1 000 000 $ AG, AD UFA - 1
Guentzel, Jake 4 500 000 $4 500 000 $ AG, AD M-NTC UFA - 1
DeBrusk, Jake 4 000 000 $4 000 000 $ AD, AG UFA - 1
Bellemare, Pierre-Édouard 775 000 $775 000 $ C, AG UFA - 1
Jeannot, Tanner 2 665 000 $2 665 000 $ AD, AG UFA - 2
Colton, Ross 4 000 000 $4 000 000 $ C, AG UFA - 4
Brännström, Erik 2 000 000 $2 000 000 $ DG/DD, AG RFA - 1
Benson, Zach 950 000 $950 000 $ (650 000 $$650K) AG RFA - 3
Benn, Jamie 9 500 000 $9 500 000 $ AG, C NMC UFA - 2
Cates, Noah 2 625 000 $2 625 000 $ C, AG RFA - 2
Forsberg, Filip 8 500 000 $8 500 000 $ AG NMC UFA - 7
Boldy, Matthew 7 000 000 $7 000 000 $ AD, AG UFA - 7
Cuylle, Will 828 333 $828 333 $ (82 500 $$82K) AG RFA - 2
Aston-Reese, Zach 775 000 $775 000 $ AG, AD UFA - 1
Bunting, Michael 4 500 000 $4 500 000 $ AG M-NTC UFA - 3
Gaudreau, Johnny 9 750 000 $9 750 000 $ AG NMC UFA - 6
Durandeau, Arnaud 762 500 $762 500 $ AG UFA - 1
Caufield, Cole 7 850 000 $7 850 000 $ AG, AD UFA - 8
Byfield, Quinton 894 167 $894 167 $ (2 650 000 $$3M) AG, C RFA - 1
Bell, Parker 857 500 $857 500 $ AG RFA - 3
Barlow, Colby 950 000 $950 000 $ AG RFA - 3
Koivula, Otto 800 000 $800 000 $ AG, AD, C UFA - 1
Caggiula, Drake 775 000 $775 000 $ AG, AD UFA - 2
Johnston, Ross 1 100 000 $1 100 000 $ AG UFA - 3
Athanasiou, Andreas 4 250 000 $4 250 000 $ AG, AD UFA - 2
Bains, Arshdeep 816 667 $816 667 $ AG RFA - 2

Défenseur gaucher	Défenseur droitier	Gardien de but

31 janv. à 21 h 35

cnick19

Rejoint: juill. 2017

Messages: 205

Mentions "j'aime": 34

Vindication!

fangm a aimé ceci.

31 janv. à 21 h 39

NHLfan10506

Rejoint: mai 2019

Messages: 40,513

Mentions "j'aime": 18,465

What is the n= for each team?

31 janv. à 21 h 39

fangm

Démarrer sujet

Rejoint: juin 2021

Messages: 2,029

Mentions "j'aime": 257

Quoting: cnick19

Vindication!

Not a perfect science but yes.

Especially on Zadorov. Leafs fans were smashing the value while Calgary fans were demanding a 1st+ which is crazy compared to a late 3rd + 5th.

31 janv. à 21 h 43

fangm

Démarrer sujet

Rejoint: juin 2021

Messages: 2,029

Mentions "j'aime": 257

Quoting: NHLfan10506

What is the n= for each team?

I can get it for you when I'm back at my laptop. But if you are going to make a point about lack of sample size on the smaller teams, its a valid point. about 100x more data for Toronto than Arizona who I believe were 1st and 32nd respectively.

Overall over 250,000 individual datapoints.

31 janv. à 21 h 51

NHLfan10506

Rejoint: mai 2019

Messages: 40,513

Mentions "j'aime": 18,465

Quoting: fangm

No, that’s okay, just curious…(assuming 250,000 is looking at all transactions…not just Zadorov trades).

If I were to model, I would probably weight results a couple of ways…by a teams available assets (number of picks, amount of cap space)…and timing (in season vs pre-season).

I would also set a benchmark (maybe similar process for oft-traded players)…then compare singular player. It may be that teams are overvaluing a need, or underpaying the entire market…would tell full story

Good stuff. Look forward to the white paper, FanGM.

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Leafs Fans Are the Best

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