Only tanev is an upgrade imo

I tried to bring in guys who can make plays as that seems to be what Coffey values most

Personally, I'd aim for Carrier but I'm definitely not certain that he's an upgrade given the role he'd be tasked with playing.

I think a 1st gets it done for Fabbro/Carrier. Definitely for Fabbro, maybe a touch less for Carrier since he is a UFA. I honestly feel like they are more likely to get moved in a hockey trade though.

I don't think either should be able to garner a 1st in return but I'm curious. I've identified a clear gap in the perception of some here on CF regarding Fabbro's value compared to my own and I'd like to ask: what is it about his play that makes you feel he's worth a 1st? He seems like a pretty standard and unspectacular RD that strikes me as a tag-along for Josi that does little else (tertiary role on the PK, no role on the PP, avg ~17 mins/night). What am I missing?

I would agree with most comments, is Ceci great? No, but you have to be objective about how good other teams players are. Grass isn't always greener on the other side.

You aren't far off. He is still a solid top 4D man, but is definitely in the shadow of Josi. He is solid in the 2 way game, but doesn't do either offensive d-man or defensive d-man role in an outstanding way, just good, hence the lack of role in both pk and pp. I think Fabbro is probably a bit of a victim of the John Hynes Era in NSH because he has the vision and passing ability and pretty smart with the puck and away from it, but he his skating ability holds him back. With NSH defensive pipeline its very sink or swim, so Fabbro didn't hit it off immediately and has had to claw his way back into good graces. If Fabbro is to be traded I would want a 2nd round pick back or I'd be willing to retain on him to upgrade to a low 1st rounder.

I think you might be confused on the value of a late first round draft pick. Fabbro is a guy who can be SERVICABLE as a top pairing RD. He's not great, but not terrible. He's a solid passer and decent on the rush but sometimes makes mistakes he shouldn't. He's just now entering his prime and he's an RFA. Your late first rounder statistically won't play more than 100 NHL games. So, to be honest, Fabbro is likely worth more than that.

No, I'm definitely not confused about the value of the 1st. I'm looking at established precedent and finding that the only Dmen that typically go for 1sts are of a higher established quality- typically with a more standout ability- or are younger, high-potential pickups. Recent examples are as follows:

Sandin (at age 22) went for a 1st & Gustafsson (higher offensive ceiling & younger)
Ekholm+ went for a 1st, Barrie, & Schaefer+ (top pairing stud)
Hronek+ went for a 1st & a 2nd (higher end offense)
Lundkvist (at age 21) went for a 1st+ (likely comparable, but younger)
Romanov+ (at age 22) went for a 1st (perceived higher ceiling but, whether accurate or not, still younger)

Even if we go further back to an oft-cited trade used to justify inappropriate valuations, Chiarot for a 1st+, Chiarot was exactly the right kind of Dman that's highly valued by many GMs in the playoffs and was coming off a long postseason run in a top pairing role w/ MTL. What you're pointing at and demanding a 1st for has none of these qualities. He's 25, doesn't play big minutes (currently only plays 3rd pairing mins by amount), doesn't do any one thing exceptionally well, isn't big, and apparently his skating holds him back (I'm assuming that doesn't mean he's awful, just around average). Literally nothing about him suggests he's a.) worth a 1st compared to the typical trade market or b.) that he's an upgrade on Ceci (which isn't your point but that of the author of this thread).

And I'd say that's the issue I see. If he's not particularly fast, isn't particularly big, isn't particularly adept at either attacking or defending, and isn't used to playing 20+ mins/night of shutdown mins, he simply isn't an upgrade on Ceci. That's not the fault of you guys, but the author of the post. The 2nd would strike me as a much more reasonable ask, even if I wouldn't pay it for him.

Carrier, on the other hand, is a more tempting idea. If I recall, he's supposed to be a pretty good skater, right? Given he has more of a history in a defensive role (whether alongside McDonagh, Lauzon, or Ekholm), I could actually see his as being a potential upgrade on Ceci- whether just stylistic or absolute.

The primary difference in their skating ability is that Carrier is faster than Fabbro. I would say Fabbro is a smoother skater than Carrier is though. One thing with Carrier is that he has had more consistent defensive partners than Fabbro, which at least in mind, shapes that perception that Carrier is better. But if a more defensively minded d-man is what you are after, than Carrier is the right choice. He is really strong defensively and is really good at blocking shots.

In my mind, the cost for either is about the same, but I think Trotz would ask for more if Carrier is the ask.