Thats a pathetic lowball for Draisatl.

What is a fair in your opinion? I'm not entirely sure what a realistic trade looks like, plus with Laff's play, I think he's untouchable at this point.

What is a fair trade in your opinion? I'm not entirely sure what a realistic trade looks like, plus with Laff's play, I think he's untouchable at this point.

You can't make a young player finally starting to play well untouchable in a trade for a top 5 player in the league.

first off, Laf has had a good few games. He is also overproducing quite a bit so hes gonna regress.

Additionally, to get untouchable players like Drai you gotta move untouchable players. A drai trade would need Mika and Laf, or some other equivalents. Then more

For a year and a half though? I mean Zib is signed for like 5 more years, laff has team control for 4 more I think, plus three first round prospects and a top second round pick (seen as a high upside prospect in the system), plus a goalie who has the potential to start I feel like is fair. I think Mika and Laf would not be an option for Drury.

Last person I can remember like this was Erik Karlsson. And that trade wasn't nearly as close as the offer I feel like I'm offering now to Edmonton.

Lol

Drai puts EK65 to shame as far as trade value goes.

I think the headliners from that trade were Stutzle and Norris. If Kakko = norris, I think it's reasonable to say Sykora, Othmann, and a first round pick = stutzle.

Miller would probably have to be in the deal plus chytil.

Probably something like miller. Chytil. Good prospect. And a 1st at least

Othmann the only first round talent there. Kakko has nowhere near the value he used to. Hes realistically viewed as a 3rd pair guy with limited upside. Sykora and Lindblom are both throw ins. They dont move the needle at all. Goodrow has net zero value and a late 1st is fine.

We are talking about arguably a top 3 player in the NHL. Its not like hes gone in 2 years. He very well could re sign. Team control is nice but its not like Laf has proven anything. His expected metrics show he should only have around 5 points right now. Now is the best time to capitalize but even now i doubt he could be added and they still accept.

I feel like this is more realistic, than Zib and Laf + more.

I don’t think he’s gonna regress since he scores alot of goals within 3 feet of the net and he’s picking up his assist totals. If anything he’ll regress when Panarin regresses, which doesn’t look like he will any time soon

I agree with this, especially if you have been watching the games recently. He has a lot more confidence with the puck. And has a willingness to both shoot and go to the front of the net. Things us as fans have been clamoring for him to do.

Well I mean Panarin has regressed every season since coming to NY and has 8 goals on 4 expected goals, Laf has 5 on 3 expected

Not saying Laf is gonna put up 30 points but hes not gonna finish the season with 32 goals and around 60 points like hes approximately on pace to do rn.

Additionally the idea that he is untouchable is insane. We were at the point this summer where many thought he wouldnt even fetch a 1st in a trade so the idea that he is untouchable now makes no sense.

It might just be me personally, but I've always been higher on Laf than I have been Kakko, and have more of a patience with him than I do Kakko. Maybe that's why. Never bought that hype in the summer anyways unless it was him straight up for a gamechanger.

I don’t see why not? Or else how do players set new career highs

Like it was realistic for Hughes to hit 130 points but not for Laffy to hit 30 goals 60 points?

Also I don’t think anyone on the rangers is untouchable for the right price

The math doesnt support it. Expected metrics show its a short sample size and hes overproducing. of course players over produce all the time. Im not saying its impossible, rather that if im a betting man, im not putting money on it.

And to show you the other side of this, Zib isnt finishing the season at this pace. While he has struggled with only putting up 3.6 expected goals so far, we know from previous success and the math that he should start performing. Another guy is Wheeler who should produce more than he has so far, while he has also struggled. Kreider isnt gonna keep this pace but he does look poised to put up another near 50 goal season

You were also a betting man that Panarin would continue to decline this year meanwhile he’s top 5 in points and 12 game point streak

Another perfect example is Brock Nelson randomly becoming good and scoring 35-40 goals late in his career. Or tage thompson randomly becoming good at age 25 lol. You can have an educated guess about regression but it’s not 100% gonna happen

Brock Nelson randomly becoming a 35-40 goal scorer? 29 expected goals last season, 20 in 72 the season before that and 20 in 56 the year before that. He has overproduced but it was never random.

Tage Thompson's wife had cancer and hes also an anomaly lol.

But im speaking so far this season, Laf has overproduced. So has Panarin but hes consistenlty overproduced his entire career

he also has gone from 1.3ppg, to 1.2, to 1.1. hes not finishing this year at his pace lol

And yes some players consistently overproduce these values but Laf, who has never proven anything, gives me no reason to believe he will continue to vastly overproduce this 13 game sample size

And another example is McDavid. Hes so talented hes always overproduced these metrics, and while he is now struggling because of injuries he is also proving that you cannot evade the math forever

How about JT Miller randomly becoming a PPG game as soon as he hits Vancouver?

Brock Nelson age 23-29: averaging 24 goals per 82 games
age 30-31: averaging 39 goals per 82 games

No one could have predicted Brock to turn it up the past 2 seasons. I understand the math part you’re talking about but there’s plenty of evidence of players randomly turning it up

How do we know Laffy isn’t a 30 goal 70 point player? He’s only. 22 and hasn’t played enough seasons to establish his career averages for us to say “yea he’s gonna regress because he’s only a 20 goal, 40 point player”

We dont know that. He very well could be.

My point is that when im analyzing players, im looking at the most plausible outcomes. And id rather move Laf in a move for a proven star. Id move him in a Drai trade, id move him in a deal for someone like Ehlers or Buchnevich, etc. Using his value now to get an asset we know is better.

Well Buch is another one lol. No one thought he was good until his final year fun NY then he was traded and now everyone says he’s really good

I’m definitely not disagreeing those players are better than Laffy but when you take into account cap space and depth, I’m not trading all those assets to get Drai or Mcdavid, etc.

Here Edmonton. Bend over.