Edmonto declines and its not even close. Bouchard alone has more value than Karlsson.

Oilers say no 10 out of 10 times

you keep saying Bouchard has more value than Karlsson on this site and I'm trying to understand. Do you think at some point, elite performance makes up for not having a bargain contract?

For example say RFA Bouchard signs for around $4m, and so his price per points (40@$4m) in 22-23 is close to Karlsson's price per points (101@$11.5m) (~$0.1m/pt vs ~$0.1m/pt). That supports your opinion right?
But then RNH at 104pts and $5.125m is almost double the value of McDavid at 153pts and $12.5m ($0.049pt vs $0.082m/pt). I must conclude then that RNH has way more value than McDavid because of his contract!

The issue with this is that you're supposing Bouchard's production remains at 40 points and Karlsson's at 100. Neither is likely. Karlsson has never scored 100 before and is 33 years old, the likelyhood that he never does again is very, very high. Conversely, Bouchard is 23 and now has the primary offensive role on the Oilers blue line, so the likelyhood of him scoring well over 40 points per season going forward is extremely high.

And that's not simply conjecture - he was handed the reins of PP1 after the Ekholm-Barrie trade last deadline, and promptly ran away with the job. He scored 19 points in the final 19 games of the regular season and then followed that up with 17 points in 12 playoff games. He's a good bet to outscore Karlsson over the next 4 years while also being many millions cheaper.

Nah, I wasn't looking at the future just this last season. Though taking over for Barrie does provide important context to Bouchard's expected rise in production, I disagree he'll score more than Karlsson over the next 4 years. He looks to be back to elite form since his recoveries. Also if indeed we're looking at money per points to make the judgement, one player has a tremendous amount of help scoring points compared to the other. It doesn't account for how each player would perform on each team.
Karlsson accounted for 50% of SJ's offense on a bad SJ team. Do you think Bouchard is going to account for 50% or even 30% of Edmonton's offense in the next 4 years? No, it's going to be driven by the Edmonton McDraisaitls
Losing Meier's finishing makes me doubt Karlsson will do 100pts again next year, but I expect in the 80pts range depending on how others perform around him.

80 point range as a 33 year old isn't unreasonable if he's healthy, but his contract also covers age 34, 35 and 36. It's guaranteed that there will be regression over that time... and with Bouchard having scored 36 points in his last 31 games as a 23-year-old, it's all but guaranteed he'll score more Karlsson in the next 4 years, his age 24, 25, 26 and 27 year old seasons. I'd bet my house on it, but the way the market is going...

He'll also be about 1/3 the cap hit, if Dobson's deal is anything to go on.

Bouchard has more value today than Karlsson, even if San Jose retained a lot of money.