If Bailey had negative value, I'd imagine Pageau would be close to negative also.

Pageau is still useful. Bailey is washed.

The problem is the term. No team wants a player with term or over 2m. I think pageau is worth at most a 3rd in this market.

Sorry but I’d 50 point Hayes even with 50% retained gets a 6th, why should Vancouver give you this much?

I’d say at most a 7th. Hayes only got a 6th and he had max retention

I think Hayes to JGP is apples to oranges. Pageau makes his money as a defensive-minded 3C who can score at a 40-45 point pace and plays all 3 phases competently. Hayes barely plays on the PK, loses more faceoffs than he wins, and has never appeared on a Selke ballot in his career. Pageau has also been a guy who has gone supernova in the playoffs before, and while he didn't do much this year, he's got a much better track record in the postseason than Hayes. Fair or not, this is all stuff that we know GMs tend to overvalue when they're comparing 2 guys.

For what it's worth, though, I think any JGP trade involves cap coming back - for instance, if the trade was with Vancouver, I think that it would probably be someone like Conor Garland or Brock Boeser coming back with picks and prospects on the margins to make the value equal.