I would think that Trotz will be looking for much more for Saros if he decides to blow it up. Holtz unfortunately has not been able to take that next step to show he can be a consistent scorer at the next level.

Swap in Seamus Casey over Holtz then?

Holtz was ranked top 10 among all drafted prospects by THW this year. He's 21. He can and probably will take that next step.

probably would have to be both casey and holtz.

I don't doubt that he has the tools to be a star at the next level, but he has looked a few steps behind during his brief NHL appearances. Also, the list that you're referring to has Lane Hutson outside the top 20 prospects, so I am unsure how credible the rest of the list is.

The list was made mid-season, Hockey East is weaker than people think it is, and if you look at historical comps (Bader/JFresh models), Hutson is not nearly the slam dunk people think he is.

Jfresh's model has been historically low on undersized defensemen, due to the change of playstyle the league has seen over recent years. IMO Hutson is more of a sure thing than Holtz is, but it is nearly impossible to predict how prospects perform.

First, Lane Hutson is not a top-20 prospect. People are looking at the point totals too much (one half came off power play which chewed up a very weak conference).

Second, Holtz is still very much a stud prospect. A number of others have had Holtz in top-25….The Athletic (#22), McKeens (#10), Daily Faceoff (#13), Elite Prosoects (#16). He had one of the most productive D+2 seasons ever in AHL (only behind Rantanen and Reichel). Was a bit of a victim of circumstance this year (they expected to play him regularly…but team played better than expected). Holtz would not be on table.

Third, goalies carry a risk premium which dilutes their trade value. No goalie has ever returned this much in a trade…ever. Vanecek and pick…or Vanecek and Vilen maybe.

Many of these models also project Reilly Walsh to be an elite NHLer.

There is only one way to settle this. Let's wait 5-15 years and see who has the better career.

If you knew anything about Vilen, you'd recognize that is quite a good offer

It's not that Vilen isn't a potentially good prospect, it's that NSH doesn't have room for him. NSH is already full on both sides of defense for now, but there is a log jam on LD as NSH already has 2 prospects on LD that are likely ready for NHL time. Seamus works as well for NSH because we wouldn't get him for some time, in which we likely have moved on from enough RD to actually need him. NSH likely has moved on from Barrie and Foote by the time we would get him. It's less of a prospect thing and more a timeline thing.

They also need scoring power more than anything. It makes Holtz worth the risk, which is frankly what Trotz is after