- Extend Auston Matthews for 8 yrs at $13,000,000 AAV
- Extend William Nylander for 8 yrs at $9,500,000 AAV
Unrestricted Free Agents
- Re-sign Ryan O'Reilly for 4 yrs at $5,875,000 AAV
- Re-sign Noel Acciari for 2 yrs at $1,500,000 AAV
- Re-sign Luke Schenn for 2 yrs at $1,250,000 AAV
- Sign Andrew Cogliano for 1 yr at $1,000,000 AAV
- Sign Danton Heinen for 1 yr at $1,000,000 AAV
- Sign Corey Perry for 1 yr at $925,000 AAV
I would pay Ryan O'Reilly whatever it takes to stay. I think the money I have given him in this example would convince him. He's never been the greatest skater, but there are many examples of players producing offense into their mid-30's without amazing foot speed. It's definitely a risk, but one that I am willing to take. The free agent market this summer is weak, meaning there will be other teams willing to pay him what he wants. I believe the pros outweigh the cons, the Leafs are in win-now mode.
Noel Acciari and Luke Schenn brought Toronto the physicality and compete that our team desperately needed this past playoffs. Both players are affordable, I have given Schenn less money because I think he is more of a lock to stay. He got a house in Toronto leading up to the playoffs, and has history within the city. He is a fan favourite.
Andrew Cogliano and Corey Perry are both Ontario-born players with Stanley Cup experience, and both bring 100% effort every night. They both can take cheaper deals to play in our bottom-six. Danton Heinen on the other hand is an example of a player who might need to sign a "prove-it" contract, but he has good speed and is not afraid of going to the net. Heinen is an affordable complimentary player who can fill in on different lines depending on circumstance. I would suspect that the Leafs will invite other veteran players on professional tryout contracts during the pre-season in the hopes of finding other discounted contracts to round out their forward group.
Restricted Free Agents
- Re-sign Ilya Samsonov for 2 yrs at $4,000,000 AAV
- Re-sign Pontus Holmberg for 2 yrs at $850,000 AAV
- Re-sign Nick Abruzzese for 2 yrs at $825,000 AAV
- Re-sign Semyon Der-Arguchintsev for 1 yr at $825,000 AAV
- Re-sign Mac Hollowell for 1 yr at $775,000 AAV
- Re-sign Filip Kral for 1 yr at $775,000 AAV
I will quickly comment on Samsonov and Holmberg. I believe the length of both contract extensions is most important in the case of each player. I have given both 2 year bridge deals for different reasons. In Samsonov's case, he had a great season, but I did not see enough to warrant committing to him as our starter for the long-term. I think if we signed him for 2 years, it would benefit both parties. It would give Samsonov the opportunity to enter unrestricted free agency in July 2025 at 28 years old, which would give him leverage to sign a lucrative contract on the open market. For the Leafs, it would give two years to evaluate his body of work in net, while also allowing them to move on from Samsonov if Woll takes hold of the starter's role. Joseph Woll's contract also is expiring in July 2025, but he would still be a restricted free agent, giving the Leafs team control. If Woll is the better goalie, they can walk from Samsonov and pay Woll with a long-term contract. Pontus Holmberg on the hand should get a two year deal because that is the maximum length contract he can receive while still expiring as a restricted free agent. This term gives Toronto control over his future extension, should he eventually break into the team as a regular player. I have been impressed by Holmberg's potential as a bottom-six defensive centre.
The Matt Murray Situation
After mulling over this Matt Murray contract disaster, I have come to terms with the fact that the Leafs may have to live with keeping his full contract on the books. I have compiled a list of options below that Toronto has pertaining to his future in order from best to worst below.
1. Bury Matt Murray's contract in the AHL
2. Buyout Matt Murray's contract (Cap-hit of $687,500 in 23-24, and a cap-hit of $2,000,000 in 24-25)
3. Trade Matt Murray to another team willing to take him on with incentives (draft picks, prospects, etc.)
The Leafs first and foremost should avoid trading Matt Murray, unless some team magically wants him without us giving up additional pieces, which is unrealistic. Toronto does not have the deepest prospect pool to begin with, and I believe they should take full advantage of the BOS 1st round pick that was acquired in the Rasmus Sandin trade. Moving on from these assets should be a last resort. Buying out Matt Murray is more productive in the short-term than it is in the long-term. Although I like the idea of saving $4,000,000 this season by buying him out, to have $2,000,000 on the books next season is risky given the Matthews and Nylander contract extensions that would be kicking in barring a trade. The free agent pool next year is also looking very promising, and having Murray's dead cap money on the books would limit the ability for the new GM to add pieces to the team, such as a replacement top-4 defenceman once T.J. Brodie's contract expires. I think the best course of action would be burying Matt Murray's contract in the minors, and I will explain my reasoning. Joseph Woll is waivers eligible as of next season, and he is on a fantastic contract for Toronto. There is no reason to send Woll down, it would be detrimental to the organisation to lose a young goaltender with promise on a league minimum contract. By sending Murray down, not only does Toronto have the opportunity to have a team pick him up off of waivers, which is of course unlikely, they also retain his services as our 3rd-string goalie in the event Samsonov or Woll go down with injury. Matt Murray's injury history is well-documented, but to be honest, Samsonov and Woll have also had trouble staying healthy, this is something that Leafs fans witnessed throughout the regular season and playoffs. The depth in goal is important, and the Leafs would save just under $400,000 on the salary cap with Woll up and Murray with the Marlies. This also would give Dennis Hildeby the opportunity to split time with Murray in the AHL and learn from an experienced goalie. With the current cap structure I have set-up below, the Leafs could even carry 3 goalies while remaining salary cap compliant by sending down Nick Robertson, and if Murray were to get injured with the NHL team, the Leafs could park his contract on LTIR, giving them even more cap flexibility.
Trades
I would trade the 1st round pick that was acquired in the Rasmus Sandin trade down to acquire multiple lower round picks. In the examples below, Toronto would acquire two 2nd round picks at 50th and 57th overall, as well as the 65th overall pick which is the first pick of the 3rd round. I based these trades on previous returns involving moving down in the draft. This idea should not worry Leafs fans, as the Leafs actually have had plenty of success drafting in this range, and this 2023 draft class is supposed to be one of the deepest in recent memory. I have compiled a list below of all the selections Toronto has made between picks 50 and 65 since the 2016 draft to solidify my reasoning.
- 2016 2nd Rd (57th Ovr): LW - Carl Grundstrom (NHL Player)
- 2016 3rd Rd (62nd Ovr): G - Joseph Woll (NHL Player)
- 2017 2nd Rd (59th Ovr): D - Eemeli Rasanen
- 2018 2nd Rd (52nd Ovr): D - Sean Durzi (NHL Player)
- 2019 2nd Rd (53rd Ovr): D - Nick Robertson (NHL Player)
- 2020 2nd Rd (59th Ovr): C - Roni Hirvonen
- 2020 3rd Rd (64th Ovr): D - Topi Niemela
- 2021 2nd Rd (57th Ovr): LW - Matthew Knies (NHL Player)
The numbers across the board suggest that trading down is a wise decision. In the cases of Hirvonen and Niemela above, they still have a chance of cracking the Leafs in the next couple seasons if they continue to develop. I can use another example from the Leafs trade history showing how trading down can actually pan out in the long-term.
To Toronto
2011 1st Rd Pick (22nd Ovr): RW - Tyler Biggs (Never played an NHL game)
Just some food for thought. This trade was made by Brian Burke on the draft floor over 10 years ago and shows how things can turn out when trading down in the draft and implementing proficient scouting.
Please let me know what you think in the comment section below. I would love to hear any positive or constructive feedback!
I really respect and admire the results of the time and effort you put into this ACGM, because you have presented a coherent, realistic strategic plan. People may differ about one decision or another, or the size of some numbers (e.g., I don't think that you'll have to pay O'Reilly that much), but no one can argue that any of these moves makes no sense. Well done!
Very well though out. I understand your thinking on the O'Reilly situation. However in my opinion having both him and Tavares with lacking footspeed was exposed in Florida series. I would let him walk especially with the risk of the contract. I would try to allocate that cap space to a centre with more footspeed.
I really respect and admire the results of the time and effort you put into this ACGM, because you have presented a coherent, realistic strategic plan. People may differ about one decision or another, or the size of some numbers (e.g., I don't think that you'll have to pay O'Reilly that much), but no one can argue that any of these moves makes no sense. Well done!
Very well though out. I understand your thinking on the O'Reilly situation. However in my opinion having both him and Tavares with lacking footspeed was exposed in Florida series. I would let him walk especially with the risk of the contract. I would try to allocate that cap space to a centre with more footspeed.
First, that's a very good point, and one that I definitely have concerns about myself. My main reason for wanting to keep O'Reilly is honestly if Matthews or Tavares go down with injury, he can fill in as a top-six centre better than any other option available on the market. I understand the foot speed conversation, but I think that this can be overcome by playing both Tavares and O'Reilly with quick wingers. I think it's important that the Leafs sign cheaper wingers like Heinen and Cogliano who can skate like the wind to provide team speed in other areas, and we all know that Nylander, Marner, and Robertson can fly.
Who would you consider to be an alternative option? I had looked at the opportunity of maybe signing Erik Haula, as he is a great skater and versatile. My concern with him is again I don't feel as confident using him at centre in the top-six for an extended period of time if Matthews or Tavares were hurt. I'd love to hear what alternatives you would suggest the Leafs look at signing with the $5,875,000 that I have allocated to O'Reilly.
First, that's a very good point, and one that I definitely have concerns about myself. My main reason for wanting to keep O'Reilly is honestly if Matthews or Tavares go down with injury, he can fill in as a top-six centre better than any other option available on the market. I understand the foot speed conversation, but I think that this can be overcome by playing both Tavares and O'Reilly with quick wingers. I think it's important that the Leafs sign cheaper wingers like Heinen and Cogliano who can skate like the wind to provide team speed in other areas, and we all know that Nylander, Marner, and Robertson can fly.
Who would you consider to be an alternative option? I had looked at the opportunity of maybe signing Erik Haula, as he is a great skater and versatile. My concern with him is again I don't feel as confident using him at centre in the top-six for an extended period of time if Matthews or Tavares were hurt. I'd love to hear what alternatives you would suggest the Leafs look at signing with the $5,875,000 that I have allocated to O'Reilly.
You are correct I could see it work, especially if they can aquire more speed on the wings.
The free agent crop is scarce - so you probably are not getting great value there so the trade front is more applicable. I like Ryan Mcleod in Edmonton - big body and was impressive in playoffs. JT Compher could be option too from COL.
Personally, I think it is time to move on from one of core 4, and my pick would be Marner. Some trade targets for him in return would be:
- Aho (CAR) - signed offer sheet in past, may be able to work out deal if he refuses to sign extention
- Dubois (WIN) - seems he has heart set on habs but if you could convince him
Any trade would obviously need to come with an extension
You are correct I could see it work, especially if they can aquire more speed on the wings.
The free agent crop is scarce - so you probably are not getting great value there so the trade front is more applicable. I like Ryan Mcleod in Edmonton - big body and was impressive in playoffs. JT Compher could be option too from COL.
Personally, I think it is time to move on from one of core 4, and my pick would be Marner. Some trade targets for him in return would be:
- Aho (CAR) - signed offer sheet in past, may be able to work out deal if he refuses to sign extention
- Dubois (WIN) - seems he has heart set on habs but if you could convince him
Any trade would obviously need to come with an extension
A Mitch Marner trade would be very interesting. Not something I would do myself, but if I was going to move him, I agree I would want a centre. I just can't see Carolina parting ways with their best centre, they don't have much behind him to fill that void once he's gone. I think they might be open to Marner for Svechnikov? Obviously not a centre, but at the very least it could be a conversation starter.
Dubois is one player that I love to watch when he's on but I have concerns about him disappearing from time to time. He's a first line talent, with a great combination of build and skill, but I don't always see the same guy when I watch him play. I know Jets fans have felt the same way at times. I would take Dubois in a trade for Marner but I'd want more plus I'd want the deal signed the moment I trade for him, just so risky given how open he has been about test free agency.
One guy specifically I was always thinking the Leafs could maybe acquire is Elias Lindholm from Calgary, I was thinking about that as a deadline deal, or even in free agency the following summer. This would be an alternative to signing Ryan O'Reilly, you couldn't afford both. I think the likelihood of a Calgary trade skyrockets if Shanahan ends up hiring Treliving, which I personally think is the right move given the experienced GM's available. Him and Hanifin are two guys I think the Leafs could maybe acquire from Calgary and look to extend. Lindholm is a fantastic two-way player, I've always liked him as an elite second-line centre.
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