Scenario:
-Dubas tells Matthews sign before your NMC or we have to trade you.
-Matthews insinuates he will only sign with Arizona.
-Teams call Toronto and offer 1 year rental packages for Matthews.
-Arizona could wait 1 seasons and sign Matthews for "free", but they risk Matthews getting traded to a contender, liking it there (it's not Toronto after all), and staying for a max contract.
-Let's assume Arizona wins the lottery and drafts Bedard.
-Chychrun is a placeholder for whatever assets he returns at the trade deadline (likely a mid to late 1st +++). Those assets go to Toronto. If Toronto is the team to acquire Chychrun at the deadline, it's irrelevant. The equivalent assets to what ARZ got for Chychrun still go back to Toronto (Toronto 2023 1st, etc, etc)

So it would be the Chychrun Return (1st++), a top 2 protected 2025 1st, two 2nd round picks, a 2026 7th round pick, Hayton, and Bokondki (important piece) for Matthews before his NMC kicks in.

Arizona would then sign Matthews to a max 8 year contract. Toronto would take those assets along with the 11.64M in cap space and go big game hunting to build around Marner and a broken down Tavares.

As far as Arizona waiting one season and signing Matthews for free, too much can change in one season.

If Matthews goes to a contender, likes it there, and they offer him max, he probably signs with the contender in spite of his pajamas.

Toronto cannot let Matthews get to July 1st unsigned. They either need to him locked down, or get a haul for him that they can use to re-tool.

Also, look at what OHL team Hayton played for, in the context of Dubas he is worth a couple first rounders because of that.

Chycrun is going to get 2 firsts and a prospect. Hayton is a prior first on a ELC. then add in another first, 2 seconds + for a year and a half of a player during a tank season. Right on dude!
Yeah, Arizona signs him in 24'

Why would AZ pay a steep price for #34 when they can sign him in 25.

I would love to see them sign him for free.

If he hits the trade market, they take a big risk by waiting the year. Even if he is intent on going back to Arizona, there is no guarantee he hits the open market if he is traded to another team.

Most teams probably wouldn't give up a 1st for Hayton at this point. In this scenario, the Coyotes add Bedard and Matthews in the same off season, so you have to imagine that their top 2 protected 2024 pick is likely to be in the 5-10+ range. That's the best piece in the trade. Otherwise, whatever Chychrun returns is going to be a mid to late 1st and other B/C level pieces. The rest of the trade is 2nds/3rds, etc. It's a whole lot of quantity, but only one reasonably strong piece in Arizona's 2024 1st.

It's the middle ground of not being worth anywhere near what Matthews with an extension should be worth, but is still a substantial price for Arizona to pay in order to avoid the risk of "just wait to sign him bro".