Quoting: TerreriStepper
Add or remove as you need. But I'd ask you, which would you rather have, the team as currently constructed, with Holtz, or the version I present? It's a crapshoot either way, there are no guarantees. But I think this is a rare opportunity of a deal and one we could regret missing out on. Especially because, as good as we are, I'd love that one more high-end goal scoring piece. If that is Holtz, great. but that's not as much of a sure thing and given our breakout, we have to start thinking in terms of sure things, not gambles (and again, the trade would benefit both teams. If anything, have the sharks send back a second or something).
I'm not gonna argue that the team isn't made better in the immediate by trading Holtz + 1st + Foote for Meier, it clearly is.
But I don't think trading for immediate gain is a very good way to build a long lasting stanley cup contender, I think constantly having your eye to the future is generally more important.
In the NHL, the team trading with the future in mind will almost always come out of the trade in a better shape than how they entered it.
The way I visualize the tradeoffs from acquiring Meier now is how it affects the Devils competitive window.
Let's say the Devils currently have the tools to contend from now (given how they're playing I think it's fair to say the Devils are a dark horse at least) and ten years into the future.
(1) Then we do your suggested trade for Meier, the competitive window widens immediately by some degree.
But the window remains open for a shorter duration, as high value futures are dealt away (and NHLers regress heavily on average when they enter their 30s), let's say the Devils lose two years of competitiveness on the backend of the window.
But wait a minute, that 1st + Holtz (and Foote) are not yet developed assets, what does that mean for the window?
(2) I think that the on-ice value of a future roster player on an ELC + whatever Holtz develops into will widen the competitive window also.
In fact I think the window will be widened just as much by having Holtz just entering his prime and that 2023 pick making the NHL than the value gained by plugging Meier into the lineup.
Not now of course, but I'd bet that the lineup for season 24-25 (and future season) will be better off by having Holtz and that 2023 draft pick in it (+ the cap space considerations) than having a 28 year old Timo Meier.
And remember, not trading those futures away for Meier means that this Devils team will likely contend for a longer period into the future.
You make a valid point in uncertainty of prospects, completely fair, but I'd argue that Meier also carries uncertainty with his 10m QO poison pill.
(3) The leverage Meier has against whatever team tries to negotiate his extension has to be priced into any trade for him.
Given how well the forwards are performing, despite having Palat and Bastian out injured, (4) the marginal gains of plugging Meier into the current lineup are diminished.
The Devils don't 'really need' to get Meier into the lineup right now.
Anyway, these are some frames I think any acquisition in the NHL needs to be considered through.
Just to say, Meier is a very good hockey player.
I would be fine with trading Holtz (+ a smaller add, like Foote or a 2nd etc) for Meier given the current landscape, and if Fitzgerald could get a long-term extension not exceeding 8.5m aav.
Sorry for getting a little long-winded.
I appreciate the tone you created here in this AGM, lots of good discussion in here.