Did you forget to put retention on Murray's contract? Buying out Mrazek is way better than trading for Murray's full contract, because if he's bad you are well worse off

Sandin is more likely to have a larger impact and more of an opportunity to grow vs Hoglander on the Leafs, so that trade doesn't really make sense for the Leafs.

Nick Paul probably doesn't sign for 2.75m. Also, not sure why the Leafs would want him, just because he brings-size and fits with Tampa, doesn't mean he would in Toronto. If he ends up being a healthy scratch consistently in the season, he might play in the playoffs but he probably won't do great.

kerfoot is worth more

Where's Kerfoot to the Kings trade??

Kerfoot's worth more to Toronto than he is to the rest of the league.

Buyout Mrazek.

canucks pass

Not true, there are other teams that value him and can use him, otherwise he wouldn't have any interest.
From those teams who have a use for him, he's more valuable to those who can extend him or whose 3.5m hit isn't an issue even as a rental. He can even be valuable to Arz since after his bonus is paid, he's obly owed 750k, he does have some trade protection though so doubt he ends up there.

A 2nd round pick isn't a lot to give up let alone a 3rd for Kerfoot even as a rental. If he was on another team, you would probably wouldn't have said anything.

If he was on another team he would be a player that has 30 goals in 3 seasons and kills penalties. Toronto's version of Zegmus Girgensons.

It should at most be a 1 for 1, Sandin looks like more of a longer term project much like Hoglander