I agree to some extent on your point of people being way to focused on terms like 3C & 4C etc. I think lines on a good team have different objectives within a game. You usually have two scoring lines that are your two first ones. The bottom two ones can have different objectives. If you have tough matchups one night, it might be beneficial to construct a checking line that can neutralize the opponents most dangerous players while the other bottom six line likely has an objective to win the head-to-head against the opposition's bottom line. Spezza can't play 12 minutes a night, it is too much for him. He might even see his ice time decrease to around 10 minutes now with him becoming older. The line stuff isnt really complicated at all. I will add a link to Dubas press conference talking about the new signings (pre Ritchie). He talks about Kämpf not just being on a line that will ''park the bus'', he see's him as someone that can drive play despite likely having to start most shifts in the d-zone. He talks about shifting guys to the wing to be more offensive knowing they have Kämpf there to support them (Kerfoot). I think you are too locked into the idea of creating a checking line. It will happen in certain game, bust most likely not be something we see every game, unless you maybe consider, Mikheyev-Semyonov-Spezza a checking line.

Link to Dubas interview (Talks about Kämpf 10:07):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=knZqtRNA6YM&t=740s

Well, its good that you are familiar with Jack Han's work. He has a brilliant hockey mind. Highly suggest you don't blow over the article I linked as it likely helps you get an even better look on what David Kämpf can contribute to the Leafs, and how he recommends to utilize him at even strength. He thinks he works better with skilled players rather than hard workers like Mikheyev/Semyonov/Simmonds. His most frequent winger was Kubalik, a 30 goal scorer his first year on his wing and on pace for 25 goals last season.

If Spezza's minutes are getting knocked down to 10 min per night, and you suggest that line is the one getting the bulk of DZ starts, I really don't see how they hit your proposed projections for them.

If they are getting 10ish min per night at 5v5 with major DZ starts, I wouldn't expect a whole lot of offence from them.

I never said that the two other players would get 10 minutes a night. This is what Spezza would play without having any power play or penalty kill time. Obviously both Mikheyev and Semyonov would play more playing on the penalty kill. They can also take shift from time to time with Kämpf on their line when the situations requires it. I thought that went without the need of an explanation.

"If they are getting 10ish min per night at 5v5 with major DZ starts"

My comment. I followed what you were getting at.

But if Spezza is playing 10 min per night, that means generally that whole 4th line will be playing 10 min at EV.

Which likely means a 2+ min per night decrease to Mikheyev minutes from last year, unless the addition of Ritchie leads to an extra penalty or two every night.

Which like I was saying, doesn't typically lead to an increase in overall production.

Roughly 10 minutes a night at 5v5 with Spezza.

Roughly 2 minutes a night shorthanded.

Extra shifts with Kämpf could be anywhere between 1-2 minutes a game which comes out to around 14 minutes per night.

That is around what he played last season.

I haven't said anything about Mikheyev improving his production. I have mentioned what his career pace per season is (35 points) and said that he potentially could score 30-35 points which would be around or a little bit lower than what his career pace per season is. Haven't suggested he is going to increase his production. I have said that he can find some chemistry with an old line mate and Spezza who has scored at a ridiculous pace for a 4th liner since he joined the Leafs.

Sometimes 1+1 = 2, like you said.

Explain these extra shifts to me. Are they happening in the first period? Does it happen only when Kerfoot and Kase aren't playing well. Does it happen when they are blowing a team out? Does it happen when they are trailing in the 3rd. Why are those two getting extra min with Kampf at the expense of two better players?

And how does that equal approx. 160 min over a season?

To me the only way it makes sense is a couple of DZ shifts late when defending a small lead, but that certainly doesn't equal 1-2 min per game.

I'd deploy them in key moments of the game that aren't offensive. Defensive situations obviously goes without saying when we are trying to kill games defending a lead. But also during periods of the game when the opposition might gain lots of momentum and finish their shifts in our zone. Then those guys can be brought in for a shift to try to neutralize the oppositions momentum or right after we have a power play and the opposition sends out their best attacking players. The opposition coach might also completely change their lines which forces us to switch ours around a bit too. There are so many small situations within a game that can happen in the 1st, 2nd and 3rd period. All those situations should add up to around 2 minutes if you think about it. It's really not that complicated.

I have thought about it. That's why I would have them as a set line.

So, the opposite of this does not happen though?

Kerfoot and Kase don't get any boost in ice-time when the Leafs are down a goal.

They don't get any extra shifts with Spezza?

They don't get a shift to keep momentum when L1 & L2 are pressuring but just couldn't bury it.

Kerfoot and a healthy Kase >>> Mikheyev & Semyonov overall as players, so not sure it's wise for only the 4th liners to get an extra shift here or there.

Well obviously Spezza will play shifts with Kerfoot and Kase when Kämpf is needed defensively. Also thought that went without saying. They play on the power play as well as Kerfoot having a role on the penalty kill. He won't have issues with ice time. As for Kase, He has arguably the best two-way winger in the league ahead of him, and Nylander who is great as well. There isnt going to be all this ice time out there for him. That shouldn't really come as a surprise tho. He just has to try produce the best he can with the ice time het gets, very much like Spezza has done, although he will play more minutes obviously. I don't think anyone disagree's with Kerfoot & Kase > Mikheyev & Semyonov.

OK. So if the defensive trio is getting some shifts together when needed, and the offensive trio will get some shifts needed.

Does that not more or less offset that 1-2 min extra per game Mikheyev is getting, which long story short brings him back down to approx. 12 min per game?

It all depends on how Keefe plans on using Nylander, Bunting and Ritchie. Nylander averaged 16:36 last season. Will he continue to do that or play more? I think it is safe to say that both Ritchie and Bunting won't absorb Hyman's 19:22 per game, so that opens up some extra time, possibly going to Nylander. But that is a steep increase going from 16:36 to 19:22. Going by your structure NOT mine, you would structure it evenly like this:

1st line 20 min.
2nd line 18 min.
Bottom six line one 12 min.
Bottom six line two 10 min.

I would be much more fluid with the allocation of ice time. Ritchie won't play 20 minutes, and Bunting won't play 18 minutes. I would say both of them should play around 15 minutes each. That opens up 8 minutes extra time for the bottom six. Spezza won't play more than 10 minutes, so that leaves 5 players to absorb those minutes. I'd give 2 minutes each to Kerfoot and Kase which would land them at around 14 minutes a night. I'd give an extra minute to Kämpf so he plays around 13 minutes. and then give the rest to Mikheyev, so realistically he comes closer to 13 minutes, than 14, which is fine. If your whole point is to say that Mikheyev won't get 30 points, I'm not going to die on the hill for that. I like what he brings and would rather keep him than Dermott, that is my opinion, and we can agree to disagree on it.

Well, if they plan to take your approach, I can see why they hired that extra assistant coach. Keeping track of which bottom 6 wingers turn it is to get that extra shift in the top 6 will be a full-time job.

Especially considering when it's Kase jumping up into the top 6 they'll likely have to flip Nylander to his off-wing.

Changes on the fly seem like they'd be a nightmare.

That is why neither you or I, coach in the NHL. Contrary to what many people seem to think, coaching at a high level requires you to be switched on all the time. You are obviously not holding a stop watch in your hand timing everyone's shift, it all comes down to feel of the game. It isn't confusing for players at all. They step on the ice when they hear the coach call their name/number.

So that feel for the game pretty well guarantees there won't be as many nightly line tweaks as you are suggesting.

Depends on what your opinion on HCSK is. I like him a lot.

Sure. I like him, but if Bunting is playing well, he's not losing any minutes that night.

If he's not going, then the line will be tweaked likely for the 3rd period and he'll likely swap spots with Kerfoot more often than not.

How often have you seen Mikheyev get 2 shifts on the 2nd line, then 2 shifts with Galchenyuk (who started there), then 2 shifts with Spezza going up, etc. etc. etc.

He's not throwing the lines in a blender and trying 16 different line combos every single game.

If Bunting or Ritchie are looking good, and L1 and L2 is rolling there will be no need to get into the that chemistry experiment you proposed in an earlier post, with special teams the only factor that can change things up the odd time.

I guess we have to agree to disagree then.

Just as a side note, it is really refreshing to have a discussion with someone without it getting out of hand and personal. Really enjoyed this.