Quoting: UBS_ARENA
I dont think so. He has 2 years left as a middle 6 forward, then he will be a fringe nhler. Paying a scratch 3×4m ismt a good idea. Hes andrew ladd lite.
He’s not comparable to Ladd , different styles. Ladd was pretty much a Jack of all trades, master of none type of player. He didn’t do any one thing at an elite level. The two years before the Isles signed him, his offensive play driving really fell off a cliff and he put up numbers because he played with superstars. Once he joined the islanders his injury problems sped up his decline even more. Then he had that buyout proof contract which made the situation even worse for the isles.
Palmieri does two things extremely well, he’s an elite finisher and he’s very good defensively. He has also been one of the leagues best finishers on the PP over the last 5 years, scoring at a similar rate as Ovechkin. Palmieri’s shooting percentage was 8.7 % last season , his average S% over the last 6 years is 13.2%. So he’s actually due for a huge bounce back season next year. Anyone who knows what regression to the mean is could have called Anders Lee have a big season last year (36 goal pace). The year before he was extremely unlikely, just like Palmieri was last season.
Palmieri’s two closest comparable are Craig Smith and Patrick Hornqvist IMO. Smith is 31 , Hornqvist is 34 and they still produce at a top 6 rate. I’m not a fan of giving 30+ players long term deals , but It’s a good bet that he’ll provide top 6 value for the next two years and middle 6 value for the 2 years after that. If the contract is 5.5 x 5 I’ll be disappointed but if it’s less than 4.5 mill and it doesn’t have signing bonuses, I’m fine with that.