Quoting: awaters2121
LGD salary was a mistake that has now been corrected. I'm on the fence with the Dunn trade, there are a number of players I'd love for the wings to draft with that pick (Especially Cossa if he is available), but a young 24-year-old defenseman with a proven track record and likely progression is tough to come by. I don't think a 2nd and a b prospect gets Dunn. The biggest factor for me is how well (IMO) he would fit the rebuild, I think with Hronek, Dunn, and Seider there is a small core group that could be there for 5-10 years while the Wings bring in one older defenseman and fill in the remaining two spots with prospects or another veteran free agent. Dunn provides some versatility with being able to play both LD and RD. A UBC Business School study found that defensemen "improve and decline more slowly than forwards do and perform within 90% of their peak from 24 to 34 years old (two longer than forwards), and 26 is their most common age." According to Dobber Prospects, about 74 % of 1st round picks end up playing over 100 games and that's 65% for "Late 1st round (16-31") picks. By my count, the Red Wings have taken 10 defensemen in the last three years of drafting, it's likely that besides Seider the rest take 2-4 years of development before seeing NHL ice. Exchanging a late 1st round pick for a proven NHL player that could play for the Wings for the next 3-8 years while still having one high first-round pick and 11 additional picks this year along with 10 next year seems to fit the rebuild. I think it's safe to say that the Red Wings will remain in the draft lottery for the next two years, but it will be difficult to be worse than Columbus and Buffalo and Yzerman has consistently stated that he wants the team to be competitive during the rebuild. But, the last offseason is a good example that Yzerman is good at finding quality free agents, Merril and Stecher fill the void perfectly, and arguably just bringing back Merril could provide an applicable stop-gap (but only 1-3 years) while maintaining a high percentage shot on the dartboard of prospects.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/when-nhl-players-peak-hockey-metrics-1.2646054
https://dobberprospects.com/2020/05/16/nhl-draft-pick-probabilities/
I’m with you on Cossa. I hope he falls, heck trade up a few picks if need be.
Dunn does fit quite well in that DET needs a LHD and he’s still young. I know that D take longer to develop unlike forwards and thus their prime is staggered slightly, so definitely not coming at this from a perspective of him not being a good fit. Obviously STL will set the bar high (all teams do, even BUF although Eichel’s value is lower now than what they are actually asking for) and I think DET’s offer starts with their late or mid 2nd rounder and a prospect (low ball as it should), I just haven’t seen enough in their rebuild to warrant giving up a 1st rounder right now. My height is the Wings 2021 2nd and a B prospect, and this is also considering STL is not trading from a position of strength.
Sure a bidding war could ensue, but if that happens, I think a bubble team will more than likely get him for there 1st. There are plenty on here that easily give up WSH’s 1st and there are plenty with worse offers than mine, I just try to fall in the middle. And hey that’s why we’re all ACGMs and not actual GMs!