Quoting: kclar
i respect where you're coming from and I understand what you are saying. i just think its unfair to try to simplify the game to "this player is better than another" it completely misses so many nuances/skills/uses/aspects of players, let alone player development.
Okay. Let me break Risto down for you in a less simplified way all from the charts I've posted.
To be clear, all of the following is as a direct result of him (aka its been parsed to ensure it is not circumstantial).
Positives:
He is a decent PP QB
Negatives:
When he is on the ice, his team gets shelled.
When he is on the ice his team creates very little.
He doesn't do a good job protecting the net.
He has a poor penalty differential (but a low impact one).
Other teams are able to take more shots from more dangerous locations (aka closer to the net) when Risto is on.
He struggles mightily in transition - often getting stuck in his own end.
He doesn't have a very dangerous shot (below avg).
When on the powerplay however, he is responsible for his team taking more shots from less dangerous parts of the ice (see the left corner right by the blueline in the PP chart)
There is more but I feel like that is more than enough to get the point across. Remember I got all of this from the charts posted above. He is bad, and simplifying this to say he is bad is not a valid criticism of analytics (especially since that is not a thing these analytics do lol).
Quoting: kclar
i agree that coaches should experiment more when they see trends like risto's. call it a "blind appeal" all you want, but i think someone who spends every day with these players would know a bit more than us. not saying they don't make mistakes, but how would you handle it?
Yes I would call that blind appeal as that is exactly what it is. In terms of how I would handle it:
I'd argue playing Risto in heavy minutes is a primary reason Buffalo has been as bad as they have been for awhile now. The Risto-Montour 1st pairing I'm hearing about is likely going to single handily sewer Buffalo's season. The first thing I'd have done (say its July 1st or sept 9 or whenever FA was) was find a serviceable Dman (Ryan Murray was available for cheap, he'd have been very nice) so that I can heavily shelter Risto. Like 3rd pairing levels of sheltering on 5v5 and use him as a PP specialist. One of two things will then happen. Either his results will improve given the lighter load, or they won't. Either way the result is the same - Trade him. The only difference is the degree of difficulty in doing so (GM's love to get fooled by sheltered players who have name value). 5.4 mil is a lot to pay a 3rd pair PP specialist and you'll need to pay Dahlin so moving that money is a big coup. If you could do it for no return that would be a huge win. Even paying would still be a win.