Ya stats say that shot had a high liklihood of going in based on the shooter, the shot, how long the D's shift was and who the Ds were. Moneypuck is getting pretty good at telling the whole story.

Well. he should outperform Nylander by a lot, given that Nylander earns 4 million less a year. But at least Nylander can find the back of the net and his cap is fair. I don't hate Marner, I just think he is overpayed by at least 2m and this is what is killing the Leafs.

Also he played with Matthews and Tavares quite a bit.

I am just expecting a bigger impact from a 10.8 million winger 5vs5

And the Leafs powerplay stinks a bit (not blaming that on Marner, but they have just too many players who want the puck in a certain position)

I don't like moneyhockey. I don;t think it works the same way as say Baseball.
Leafs need some Size and mean ness to them, to start winning series. I liek Matthews, Marner and Rielly, but the supporting cast needs to be bigger and have more grit.
They are all tiny, Kerfoot, Johnsson, Kap, Nylander etc.

Right, of the 38 only 15 made it on net. Moneypuck has a cool thing that based on the shooter and the shot it can predict the liklihood of a goal. Marner was expected 2 goals this series. (Im assuming the one he rung off the crossbar and getting lucky on one other.)

I agree that stats aren't everything but it does help to be mindful of them. Obviously you can't build a team off Corsi but at the same time you shouldn't bet trading for players with 200% G v xG or awful defensive positioning.

In the end, if you are getting payed that much as a winger, which is the least important postion, you should just have a bigger impact on a series for that kind of salary. expected goals are in the end not goals.

Marner should have outperformed Nylander. Nylander was shooting less from worse angles and wasn't feeding it to AM34 or JT in the slot as often either. I know it's naive but I'm gonna say it: Marner had rotten luck these playoffs.

True, but in general xG = G over the case of 10+ games. These playoffs Marner was shooting like crazy, he was setting team mates up like crazy, and Korpisalo let nothing get by him. Obviously in the end he didn't do enough to justify his salary but what happens if his shot that hits the crossbar in game 3 goes 1 inch lower and they win game 3? Think of how the narrative changes.

I just think every player should be evaluated by his cap hit. Marner wanted top money and should only be measured on his cap hit. In the end, the Marner contract costs the Leafs a top 4 D.

I think Nylander had a solid season this year and is producing more or less at the amount he is payed.

Marner isn't far off what he is payed though. If we are going off the old sentiment that 10pts = 1m then he is only overpaid by 1.5m, which is quickly recouped through Rielly, Hyman, Andersen, Muzzin, etc.

That is partly true. I did not like his series much. And if you want a contract like that, you need to take responsability.

I am just a bit afraid that Marner is putting up a lot of points in the regualr season, but does not have much impact when it counts. I also thinks he feels the pressure that he put up on himself. And we have to consider other aspects of the game as well. When we look at Hyman, this guy does just so much

There is actually very little statistical evidence to confirm Marner is better defensively. He kills penalties and everyone thinks that means he's great defensively. He's not bad but he's not amazing and he isn't much better than Nylander and at his salary. Nylander is the more valuable player.

He made 2 mistakes playing a position he didn't play all year and it didn't cost us anything. I am so sick of the Nylander hate. It's completely undeserved.

The Leafs are the 3rd biggest team in the league.

Which is realistic, but I think he can still be clutch in future playoffs. In the OHL he put up like 2.5 ppg in his final playoffs and I truthfully think he can get back to that someday

The OHL is like the 10th best league in the world and not just comparable to the NHL, both in terms of talent and style of play. you don't have teams playing like the Bruins or Columbus in junior hockey

He was minus 3 in game 5 and minus 5 in the series.
There is reason there is hate for how he plays, and I would say a lot of people feel the same way.
Neither coach can trust him defensivelybut you think he's a greta d zone player

Just because he is a minus, it doesn't mean he is to blame. Kapanen never does his job as the high forward and gets burned on pinches all the time and yet he gets a pass.

How? I would like to see that?
height and weight?

I'm not talking about Kap. I am talking about Nylander.
He's not good defensively.

He's underrated defensively.

The OHL doesn't even break top-30.

What I'm saying is he has that ability to not choke when it matters.

Not in the NHL so far

Your literally the only one that says that. As your hockey panels and good hockey minds disagree. His coaches disagree too or he would play in defensive situations.